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<p>[QUOTE="Skyman, post: 2690618, member: 28299"]A couple of things, first, with regards to 1989, PCGS slabs (and NGC?) first hit the market circa 1986. Due to the slabbing, people became VERY bullish that coins could become commoditized, e.g. buy 100 MS65 common date Morgans as a futures for example, and they also believed that bundles of rare coins could be put together as an investment instrument, and sold X years down the line for a profit, somewhat like a REIT bundles together real estate properties. This led to a bull market that eventually became a bubble that popped in the summer of 1989. I remember because I rode that bubble up and got creamed on the way down... hence my learning that coins are not an investment per se.</p><p><br /></p><p>Second, with regards to gradeflation I was NOT talking about cracking out coins and resubmitting them for higher grades (although part of that is inherent and to be expected, see my final comments). I was talking about what grades are CURRENTLY being given to RAW material being sent in to be graded for the first time.</p><p><br /></p><p>I had an interesting discussion at the February Long Beach show with SEVERAL dealers who said that it used to be if you sent in an unsearched roll of generic Morgans you'd get maybe 2 to 3 MS65 coins. Nowadays if you sent in a unsearched roll of generic Morgans you'd get 5 to 6 MS65 coins, and the lower graded coins would be upgraded in the same manner. By definition statistically these sort of generic unsearched rolls should be essentially the same. If the TPG's give more high grades than they used to that devalues the value of those high grade coins today.</p><p><br /></p><p>As a long time Franklin collector I can absolutely state that many of the MS66 and MS67 Franklins that have been graded in the last 5 years or so are easily 1 grade too high compared to what was out there for many years. Surprise, surprise, along the way, this gives a BIAS to FORCING someone who has many earlier generation slabbed nice coins to regrade their coins to maximize their return when they sell their coins, thus lining the pockets of the TPG's a second time.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="Skyman, post: 2690618, member: 28299"]A couple of things, first, with regards to 1989, PCGS slabs (and NGC?) first hit the market circa 1986. Due to the slabbing, people became VERY bullish that coins could become commoditized, e.g. buy 100 MS65 common date Morgans as a futures for example, and they also believed that bundles of rare coins could be put together as an investment instrument, and sold X years down the line for a profit, somewhat like a REIT bundles together real estate properties. This led to a bull market that eventually became a bubble that popped in the summer of 1989. I remember because I rode that bubble up and got creamed on the way down... hence my learning that coins are not an investment per se. Second, with regards to gradeflation I was NOT talking about cracking out coins and resubmitting them for higher grades (although part of that is inherent and to be expected, see my final comments). I was talking about what grades are CURRENTLY being given to RAW material being sent in to be graded for the first time. I had an interesting discussion at the February Long Beach show with SEVERAL dealers who said that it used to be if you sent in an unsearched roll of generic Morgans you'd get maybe 2 to 3 MS65 coins. Nowadays if you sent in a unsearched roll of generic Morgans you'd get 5 to 6 MS65 coins, and the lower graded coins would be upgraded in the same manner. By definition statistically these sort of generic unsearched rolls should be essentially the same. If the TPG's give more high grades than they used to that devalues the value of those high grade coins today. As a long time Franklin collector I can absolutely state that many of the MS66 and MS67 Franklins that have been graded in the last 5 years or so are easily 1 grade too high compared to what was out there for many years. Surprise, surprise, along the way, this gives a BIAS to FORCING someone who has many earlier generation slabbed nice coins to regrade their coins to maximize their return when they sell their coins, thus lining the pockets of the TPG's a second time.[/QUOTE]
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