How far have coin values fallen?

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Hey bud,
5yr survival rates are meaningless when it comes to you as an individual. If the annual NYC temp is 45 degrees, how reliable a guide is it when one plans how to dress for a 4th of July picnic? An individual prediction cannot be reliably made based solely on the collective data. To a lesser degree, the same goes for most other things...Blessings

 

Correct, I thought I touched on that with my explanation, but I could have been more explicit.

 

Anything that involves exchanging money inevitably has an an investment element to it. You may absolutely love the look, feel and presence of a particular coin, but if you paid $100 for it and later find out that its value dropped to $10, that's a pretty cruddy feeling despite the enjoyment of the coin or for the hobby.

Some years ago, when I first embarked out into the world away from the security of home, I ended up selling my coins because I came up short for rent one month and I was too proud to ask my parents for money. They would have given it to me. I sold them at an AMAZING loss, possibly 1/3 of what I had paid for them. But it more than covered the rent, so I was relieved. Afterwards, I felt a little awful for spending so much money on something that returned so little (granted, I probably wasn't a savvy seller at the time, either) and I left the hobby for years.

But then I thought of all the books, CDs and DVDs I had purchased and received maybe 50¢ to $1 back for things I had paid $20 - $30 for and the coins suddenly didn't look all that terrible. You may not get all of your money back from coins, but you will likely get significantly more back than from other "enjoyable consumables." This of course doesn't help if you're trying to make money off of coins. That seems like an incredibly difficult thing to do and not something that I ever plan on trying.

All of that said, I find myself largely drifting away from coins in 2017. The last two coin shows I attended I left without buying a single thing. I had a wad of cash in my wallet but nothing made me part with it. I found myself saying repeatedly "I could buy this, but why?" Also, I think I saw more people trying to sell things than people trying to buy things at both shows. Something made me go "meh" about the entire thing. I still want to come to this forum, mostly because of the discussions, but my desire to purchase coins definitely feels on the wane.

 

Our brains have been wired for survival more than for anything else. Hence our hunter/gatherer DNA spills over unto other pursuits...even pet rocks (diamonds) and hunks of metal. Money is the grease that lubricates the wheels of society so as coin collectors, I guess we have some biochemical (imbalance?) explanation to our hobby

 

This drives home a point that I try and repeat as much as possible regarding selling coins. Sure there are tons of people that like to state 'oh I only collect I'll never sell, my heirs can worry about it, etc'. But selling is a part of the hobby and one that all collectors should be familiar with imo.

I took to heart that advice when first reading here that one should not only read, read and read some more before buying. But also sell or shop around a few coins from time to time as well. From doing that I'll say that maybe not the percentages you mention are pretty standard but the sell at a loss part certainly is for many coins. I think many collectors have an unrealistic idea of just what the true value of their coins is if they were actually liquidating. And because it is a part of the hobby and one can never truly say never regarding selling, I think more collectors should gain the experience of selling a few coins every so often. If for nothing else to gain experience regarding just how much the reality of what a coins true liquid value is, versus what a coins perceived value is can differ.

 

Yes, and add to that the difficulty of actually making a living in the coin business. As I've perused coin shows both physical and virtual over the years, I see more and more VF coins selling at XF prices and more XF coins selling for AU prices. Years ago, one dealer openly told me to my face that he didn't regret selling me a certain coin as an XF because he bought it as a VF. To get ahead, dealers pretty much need to buy low and sell high. So expect F or lower prices for your VF or XF coins. Then expect the dealer to turn around and sell the VF coins at XF prices - or higher. I'm not claiming that dealers are evil or manipulative (though some can be both), it's the nature of the game for those who want to make money. So, for the general collector, and barring any terrifically lucky cherry-picked item or highly desired rarity, expect to nearly always lose money on coins.

 

Words to live by, thank you.

 

I have an odd relationship with selling coins.
When I was 18 I was one of those people who made a killing off the Hunt brothers. My best friend brow beat me into selling much of my collection. His reward? I treated him like dirt for month's and it ended with me throwing him out of our dorm room. His parting shot was, "So tell me this big shot. what kind of coin dealer can't sell coins!"
Mike was the one person who new about my grand plan to get a business degree and become a coin dealer. It was a direct hit. That was when I learned I was a hobby guy.
I have sold several coins over the decades, but to do it on a daily basis? not when I realized how attached I get to coins.
Jump forward about ten years. We had two tragic things happen at once. My very pregnant wife became very ill and my oldest child failed an eye test at school. In a two month period we spent all our time and money trying to save the life of my wife and unborn child. We saved my wife.
Dead broke we are told by an eye doctor that Allison will go completely blind if she does not have an operation within the next three months. Our Insurance provider disputes the diagnosis and has 90 days to ponder an appeal. The hospital says I am self employed so to schedule an operation I will have to provide 50% of the payment in advance. It is an 8,000 dollar operation.
Everyone and all turn us down for equity loans, personal loans, credit card deals. I take every slabbed coin I own and send them to a national dealer.
I can still remember the dealer having a breezy chat with me about coins. My hand was shaking so bad I missed every third word. Then he apologized and said all he could offer me was such and such. I dropped the phone and had to make him repeat it. it was enough to pay for Allison's operation and keep us financially afloat for another month or two.
Over the years I have made several collections. If I had to guess I have broke even 40% of the time. Made money 30%, lost money 30%. I just know I am a hobby guy and except for a rare occasion or two have never really worried about the money as much as I just enjoy the hobby. Life is strange. I will never know if my plan to flip Morgan dollars for a profit and invest in Bust dollars would have actually worked. I was smarter at 18.....

 

People sometimes do not realize that there are actually two prices. One for buying and one for selling. The difference is the margin. Dealers compete to keep that margin as close to cost as possible while still making a reasonable living. Yeoman used to have a Blue book and a Red book showing the different prices. I haven't seen a Blue book in years. Now, everyone thinks there is only one price.

Your suggestion has a ton of merit to educate these people about that margin.

 

I've been PM'ing a YN who knows the game VERY well for his age. He sent in a raw 1958-D Washington to PCGS. It was graded MS66. He sent it to CAC. It got green beaned. He cracked it, sent it back to PCGS, and it got MS67'ed. No particular surprise there as there are plenty of coins over or under graded by one point. He sent it back to CAC, where again it got green beaned again. He sent it back to PCGS where it slabbed MS67+, and then sent it off to CAC, where it green beaned yet AGAIN. Now, I'm NOT saying this is gradeflation, but what I am saying is that IMO this is an indictment of CAC.

 

Wow!!

 

The general consensus is CAC doesn't care about + grades.

 

This is a pretty solid indictment of PCGS, but not necessarily of CAC. It's possible they just chose not to give the original submission a Gold Bean when it could perhaps have received one. They care not about "+" designations, and the Bean is not an endorsement of a "+," just the numeric grade on the slab. Meanwhile, PCGS increased the street value of the coin by a literal order of magnitude.

 

And THAT is an indictment of those who put their faith in TPGs.

 

A random story with no proof is hardly an indictment of anything. In all honesty that kind of submitting behavior sounds like sky was been fed a story for whatever reason. You don't submit, then submit to CAC, to crack out, submit to CAC again, crack out, and resubmit to CAC. If you felt it was undergraded the first time you just crack and resubmit. Nothing about that pattern makes any sense, and getting an upgrade two crackouts in a row is highly highly unlikely

 

Why are the 2012 proof sets so high? My wife wanted a set for a g-child and it was $ 250+ for a five coin deal.

 

that was my thought as well. Not to mention this person spent like what $100+ on grading fees on what was a $25 coin with it's original grade (I understand 68 was probably his goal since there are only 2 graded such at PCGS but if he thought it had a chance at 68 why would he waste time and money sending to CAC 3 times why would he just not keep resubmitting to PCGS hoping for 68 if he believed it to have a chance)

 

Would all this possibly translate into any "buy now" scenarios?