How far have coin values fallen?

That's disconcerting!

 

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what happened in '89?

 

This. The internet exposed in a big way a lot of "key dates" that are easily the most available, and in some ways has been a race to the bottom on pricing for certain things. The one harmful thing it probably has done is that results don't tell you anything about the coin or if it was a fluke. People see a fluke eBay result that goes for 40 percent and now everyone wants them at that price.

Overall though the internet has done far more good than harm.

Not necessarily. Nothing saying the 64 was right in the first place. A single event like that would have no real impact on pricing. A lot of people make the crackout upgrade game sound a lot easier than it really is. If anyone does think that you can just pull nice older slab 64s and get 65s and you have money to waste give it a shot. The results will generally be eye opening and not in a good way to your wallet when that grade bump is a significant value difference

 

You are assuming an instant market response to gradeflation. It seems to me that coins cracked out and resubmitted and getting a higher grade would happen over time. Population reports would slowly climb over time and if that alone was justification for declining values then the decline should continue as long as numbers in grade increase and the numbers of collectors remains flat or even decline; more examples at a given grade per number of collectors. Of course, the population numbers are erroneous as population reports aren't adjusted to remove resubmitted coins. Will we ever see coin values in general increase as they did before? Probably not.

 

Not to mention it's only been thirty years since slabbing was a thing. The slabs will preserve more rare coins, thus the population will remain steady. So unless there is a growth in collectors, it will be hard to see prices raise. But the super rare ones will always have a market.

 

Actually the population won't remain steady (at least in the TPG population reports). Say all of a given coin and date were certified with 100 at MS64 and 10 at MS65 and none higher. Let's now look at what would happen ten years later if 40 of the MS64s were cracked out and resubmitted with half getting a one point increase in grade and the others the same grade. Now the population reports would show 120 MS64 and 30 MS65, even though there are only 110 coins.

 

My guess would be the same thing that happened to the stock market: loss of confidence and panic selling.

 

That's also based on the fallacy that half would upgrade.

You know what would really help collecting though, not having a bunch of people constantly being super negative and giving the impression that you can just resubmit and be assured an upgrade

 

Take a look at the vintage (legacy) lens market today. Perhaps not the best example as they often serve a purpose beyond simple collectibles, but many that just a few short years ago could be had for a pittance are now downright costly. Think Zeiss Jena...

 

I was talking about the real time supply. Raw coins just don't last as long as the ones in a slab will. As far as the pop report, it's gotta already be inflated .

 

I meant the huge spike in values.

 

I was just trying to make a point about population reports. I have no idea as to how many slabbed coins are cracked out and resubmitted. However, from what I've read in numerous articles this practice is common for cases where a single point increase in grade is worth thousands. I'm not trying to be negative either but realistic about some of the problems we have today with TPG coins.

 

I though you were asking about GDJMSP's post concerning the bull market ending in 1988?

 

I was referring to this pic, it shows a huge spike in '89

 

Absolutely, the population reports shouldn't be taken literally when it comes to big value jumps in the next grade. A lot of people try for that grade bump and do not ever get it, and some coins sit in both the PCGS and NGC pops. The pop reports should be a guide not literal. Comparisons against other dates mm ect, but the eye test should always win. If a pop reports tells me x exist but I can't find one, my assumption is it is inflated.

Shady dealers ripping people off

 

A couple of things, first, with regards to 1989, PCGS slabs (and NGC?) first hit the market circa 1986. Due to the slabbing, people became VERY bullish that coins could become commoditized, e.g. buy 100 MS65 common date Morgans as a futures for example, and they also believed that bundles of rare coins could be put together as an investment instrument, and sold X years down the line for a profit, somewhat like a REIT bundles together real estate properties. This led to a bull market that eventually became a bubble that popped in the summer of 1989. I remember because I rode that bubble up and got creamed on the way down... hence my learning that coins are not an investment per se.

Second, with regards to gradeflation I was NOT talking about cracking out coins and resubmitting them for higher grades (although part of that is inherent and to be expected, see my final comments). I was talking about what grades are CURRENTLY being given to RAW material being sent in to be graded for the first time.

I had an interesting discussion at the February Long Beach show with SEVERAL dealers who said that it used to be if you sent in an unsearched roll of generic Morgans you'd get maybe 2 to 3 MS65 coins. Nowadays if you sent in a unsearched roll of generic Morgans you'd get 5 to 6 MS65 coins, and the lower graded coins would be upgraded in the same manner. By definition statistically these sort of generic unsearched rolls should be essentially the same. If the TPG's give more high grades than they used to that devalues the value of those high grade coins today.

As a long time Franklin collector I can absolutely state that many of the MS66 and MS67 Franklins that have been graded in the last 5 years or so are easily 1 grade too high compared to what was out there for many years. Surprise, surprise, along the way, this gives a BIAS to FORCING someone who has many earlier generation slabbed nice coins to regrade their coins to maximize their return when they sell their coins, thus lining the pockets of the TPG's a second time.

 

No they shouldn't. A real unsearched roll of Morgans can be all over the place. Actually if anything they should be better. People are more likely to sell the so so ones and hang onto their best rolls. Random dealer hearsay about "unsearched" rolls is not evidence of anything.

 

Ummmmm, baseball, with all due regards, your very statement shows that you do not have a clear understanding of what unsearched means.

"People would sell the so so ones and hang onto their best rolls"

BY DEFINITION this means that those rolls HAVE been searched. I will grant you you could look at the end coins on the roll and see some have more nicks and dings than others, but that does NOT mean that the coins inside the roll are in worse condition than rolls where the outside of the roll look perfect.

I am not just talking about hearsay, I'm talking about what I have seen with my OWN eyes. You'll note that I was the person that explained what 1989 was all about. I've been in this slabbed coin game essentially since the beginning. I have no idea how long you have been collecting slabs, but I think that if you talk to most people who have been collecting a given series OVER TIME, let's say AT LEAST two decades, that the quality of a coin in a given grade has deteriorated over the years. Heck, that was why CAC came into existence in the first place. I will be the first to say that there are some over graded coins in rattlers and other early slabs, it is just that the total make up of what is now graded at grade X has deteriorated compared to what grade X was years ago.

 

I know exactly what it means, "We are telling you I haven't checked to sell it to you for more"

Less than 1 percent of unsearched Morgan rolls are legitimately unsearched. Really its probably less than half a percent

 

I'm a collector in general it's just something I can't shake. They say it stems from our caveman days when gatherings nuts, berries, flint, etc and saving it for the future was a way of life. We don't need to do it anymore but it's still in our nature.

So man still finds enjoyment in the gathering. The thrill of the hunt we can all recognize. They say it's comforting for us to gather, organize, and save as it allows us control over a small portion of the world.

With that said what's worth collecting? It's totally subjective. Land, art, metals, coins, comics, cards, antique furniture, the list goes on. We all want to obtain value whenever possible. It's important to remember the innate satisfaction that comes from the process though so if you enjoy the process you shouldn't trouble yourself too much with the value side. I'm not discounting it in any way because $$ is important but most of us are here because we love the hunt.

If you're in this only for the business though then this discussion is paramount.