How far have coin values fallen?

In looking at the reductions in the index one might think you would have been better off buying junk silver. I am not going to take the time and check my collection coin values and compare them to recent auctions, and perhaps they have dropped, but I am pretty sure the drop is not as much as the PCGS 3000 index. No sympathy here for them who bought a pig in a poke.

 

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My theory is too many of the most collected coin buyers were investors and not collectors. They were momentum players, trying to turn a profit on our hobby. So when the market started heading south they bailed, dragging the prices down. I believe there are many collectors like me that have collected coins for a good part of their lives. I truly love collecting coins and always have, as I am sure is the case with many here. And if the market value for my coins drop I don't sell. Why would I? The coins were purchased for my enjoyment, not as an investment. Don't get me wrong, If by chance I won the lottery, some of the coins listed in the PCGS Index would be mine very soon, because I appreciate their beauty and history.

 

You know the guys here who like to claim that all coins worthy of plastic have already been entombed? You're right, and they're going to be in for a surprise. This isn't to say one should expect as massive flood, but only that there's a lot more out there hiding in very private collections than most seem to realize.

 

I still like good raw coins to fill Dansco albums.

 

The don't have nearly as far to fall, so lower is certainly relative when it comes to value. I would suspect these coins have fallen, but by substantially less in both absolute value and even as a percentage of peak price since there is far more price discovery in this category.

 

I have three slabs out of 50 in my newest collection. My old collection of over 200 had 9 slabs and all those were GOLD and purchased at then current gold bullion prices.

Most of my coins are early date variety rarities or at least die state rarities. These are not enhaced by plastic and in fact, would prevent examination of the third side of the coin or it's edge. I would never have discovered a couple of rare edge sub-varieties if they had been entombed.

 

What catches my attention is that the graph for the proof coin index doesn't follow the same drop off as the others. Could it be that the grading on those coins stayed more consistent (because proof coins aren't circulated, dipped, handled as much) and all the various mint state coins were not properly graded years ago and there were a bunch of sliders in the ranks of gem coins back then which are now AU coins?

edited to fix quote tags

 

Over a year ago I made the decision to begin the process of early retirement and purchase a second home out of state for retirement. To help with finances I had to make a decision: sell my coin collection right away (and get less in return) or sell the collection at auctions or Ebay to get more in return (and delay my retirement). Since early retirement was my priority for personal reasons I chose the former and sold most of my collection to a local dealer, accepting much less than what I originally paid for the coins. Although one wold say that the coins were a bad investment, I have no regrets in the decision since life since retirement has been wonderful and less stressful. I went in to coin collecting for enjoyment and have picked up the pieces and started over again since the fire is still there. We all make decisions in life to do things that make us happy. I could have taken the money I spent on coins and bought a new boat. I'm sure I'd enjoy the boat but its value will depreciate over time; probably a lot more than the coins I purchase. I chose to collect coins for enjoyment and as long as the fire is still there I'll continue.

 

Okay...thanks for your feedback and thoughts on this!

 

So if a coin is slabbed and graded as a "64" now, but then broken out and regraded as a "65" later, then a savvy collector will know not to pay a "65" price for this particular coin, and the market value of the "65" coins will go down from where they have been, due to grade-flation. How much of a factor do you think that is in the downward trend of coin prices?

 

Me too. Except when the coin is high value a circular piece of paper with "safety deposit box" printed on it is inserted in place of the coin.

 

At the end of the 19th Century, collecting telegraph cards used to prepay for service was a huge, international hobby. Then phone calls became cheaper and cheaper, and people stopped using telegraph cards. After most people hadn't used or even seen one for many years, the value of collectible telegraph cards collapsed, the market collapsed, and the hobby largely disappeared.
In Europe in the 1990's, collecting telephone cards to be used for payphone service was a huge, international hobby. Then cell phones made payphones obsolete, and people stopped using telephone cards. After most people hadn't used or even seen one for many years, the value of collectible telephone cards collapsed, the market collapsed, and the hobby largely disappeared.
I am currently liquidating my stamp collection, forty-odd years in the making. That's because most people don't use or even see stamps much these days, the average stamp collector is in his sixties, and so I reckon stamp collecting will soon follow in the footsteps of telegraph and telephone card collecting. If I manage to live long enough, I will probably be able to buy my stamps back for a tiny fraction of what I can sell them for today.
Coin collecting is a more august hobby, the first coin collectors probably becoming active a couple decades after the first coins were issued, in Lydia around 600 BC. That will likely make the hobby endure far beyond the time people stop using coins, as opposed to the above mentioned hobbies, that are focused on items none of which existed prior to the 1840's.

 

From what I've noticed, (and showing my age a little, big 52), the internet has played a large role. Consider it a massive coin show that never closes down. You can find coins more readily now. In the 80's as a kid I would have to order out of a magazine or go to a shop or show. A 1972 Double Die was 750 bucks. Of course you couldn't find them. You couldn't just jump online and buy 10,000 wheat penny's every day. Now you surf the internet, Ebay or websites, and you find it very easy to find every coin out there. From what I understand the ancient coins and world coins are in the upswing as far as the market. They are simply reaching a larger audience. The supply is so much larger now that it is amazing. Of course the worry of fakes is much larger too.

 

Yes, the internet has changed the hobby in a big way. It has provided many more choices for a wide spectrum of collectors.

 

I would disagree that it is the entire collectibles market. There are ALWAYS areas of the collectibles market that are either heading up, heading down, or, for some of those heading down, in a death spiral. I would agree that more collectible markets are heading down than up.

In the world of collectibles, there are two basic things to remember, buy what you like, and buy with disposable income. A person who buys collectibles as a financial investment is a fool (and by the way, I've been there and done that with coins when I was first starting with coins). I get my return from coins these days by owning ones I like, and am happy to be able to look at them when I want to.

 

Oh, also, one thing that has been alluded to is gradeflation. An MS64 of, say, 2004, may now be graded as an MS65. By definition, this SHOULD lower the value of an MS65 coin, which may be part of what we are seeing on prices. I've heard some people claim that is what CAC is for, but the truth of the matter is that I've heard multiple stories of people who bought a green CAC'ed coin at grade X, crack the coin out, have it regraded where it comes back graded X + 1, send it in to CAC, and have them green bean it yet again. C'est la vie.