How far have coin values fallen?

When I started collecting I asked a dealer "What do I have to do to end up with a million dollars collecting coins?" He said, start with two million.
If we aren't enjoying collecting, and/or don't have spare cash, we should stop. But I still enjoy looking at a coin for the first time,...yes even '21 Morgans.

 

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I've been collecting for two years and need three Morgans to complete my set. 94P, 95P, and 93S. They dont seem to be dropping.

 

I don't wish to argue with anyone but the discussion about 1852-o Seated Half dollars draws my attention.
I have been actively trying to buy one since 1995. The closest I came was the last year of Teletrade. I had the green light "You have the winning bid". My bid was all ready at twice then market value. I had a 250 reserve bid. I still lost.
For the last two years some guy from Oregon has outbid everyone on the lowest grade coins. Then he puts them up on E-bay for between 1,000 to 2000. This is for ag/g coins.
I track 14 national dealers daily. I track Heritage, Great Collections, Stack's Bowers and four other minor auction sites.
So if ANYONE knows where I can find one of these clearance special Half dollars. PLEASE LET ME KNOW WHERE!

 

I think people in the "middle class" [defined as at least two-thirds of median income, but less that 150% of median income] are the major buyers of most coins. In 1971, 60% of households were "middle class"; now only about 40% are. [http://news.mit.edu/2017/america-economy-decline-middle-class-0313]
There are more low income people; they don't have money to spare. There are more high income people; they tend to buy super rarities, or maybe not coins at all - better to buy that "name artist" print and hang it on the wall; easier to brag about than getting out the coins.

 

At one time I thought I might be able to complete my Seated Liberty Half collection, with maybe half a dozen economically unattainable. But over the years I have watched the prices steadily increase, so that now there is a real possibility that my album will have a dozen blank openings when the family places me in the ground. During my remaining years my sincerely wish is that the sellers would please read the "falling price" memo and get with the program.

 

Unfortunately most sellers read that as 'falling prices' for them to acquire inventory and never want to reduce selling prices and lose out on any additional profits they can make.

 

Depends what it is. Nice seated material is generally in strong hands and some are very hard to find. I wouldn't let any of those go cheaply either regardless of the market.

 

I wonder how much of the coin market is controlled by"baby boomers" (which I'm part of). Do the trends reflect an aging baby boomer group who are adding to the supply side, making many previously "hard to find coins" easier to find, resulting in lower prices for buyers?

 

Perhaps in general.

But my preferred series niche has been and continues to have a small supply. My long term hold collection niche is clean F-XF Standing Liberty quarters (particularly type 2 pre-1925). These are scarce on the ground and have stable pricing.

 

Thanks for the comment. I see your point and tend to agree with what you wrote. Most of us will never have the money to invest in the rarest of coins no matter when they come up for sale; either in a bull or bear market.

 

As a slightly younger fellow compared to the average age collector I've encountered at shows, etc. I firmly believe this will be the case within the next decade or so. Father time wins the race against us all at some point and I imagine that many long held collections are going to be liquidated by unappreciative or unaware heirs just looking for a quick payday when the owner that appreciated them passes on. The population levels coming in for collecting are well below even replacement level for the largest segment of the market 'boomers' that are going to be exiting and that's going to create a supply glut at some point imo.

 

Umkay. I am savvy enough to know there are 1001 ways to "improve" the appearent condition of coins and currency, but not savvy enough to be able to detect them all.
A TPG that puts its reputation on the line gives me the comfort of knowing fellows much more knowledgeable than me looked at the item and found no reason to conclude it was a fake or had been the subject of an "artist's" attention. I still look at the item myself. I know not all TPG graded AU-58's are alike, even though they all have the same nominal grade. The TPG opinion/grade gives me the ability to focus on the item, and not worry so much about how it might have been manipulated.
It also means that when my heirs go to sell it, they won't have to pay to have it graded, or else risk being slickered.

 

Unfortunately, the promise of expertise by the TPG is as valid as the term rare when dealing with coin salesmen. The reality does not measure up with the promise. Perhaps if you specialize in modern coinage they are better. But they are horrible with even basic attribution skills. You could actually flip a coin and get better results.

 

Here it is. I like my pictures better than Heritage

 

Cool charts. I love charts.
I am going to do something really stupid in this post. I am going to give advice when none was asked for.
I was 20 years old in 1981. I was married with a pregnant wife and unemployed. For those who don't know it was called the Great Recession.
Me and a guy named John decided to start a business. (NOT
coin related). We worked 100 plus hour weeks for years.
In 1984/5 (don't know for sure), we had retired our start up debt and were making enough to eat. One day John got a flyer for a business seminar with a pretty blond on the front. He had a weakness for blonds so I wasn't surprised when he pushed to attend. He said it would be good for us to see "The bigger picture." For three days and two nights Daryl and Janet (Our Seminar Leaders) bombarded us with facts.
Credit markets were shrinking. Technological advancements were making us obsolete. Institutions were changing their buying practices and dropping small suppliers. New regulations were strangling competition.
Lot and lot and lots of charts.
The morning after the seminar we drove away and didn't speak a word for over an hour. I finally stopped at a gas station to use a bathroom. I looked at John and said, "At least Janet was real pretty!" We both started laughing. It is the only time in my life I actually laughed so hard I peed in my pants.
In my entire life it has never been the right time to get married, have a kid, start a business, collect Indian head cents. Do it anyway. It is also never the right time to lose your business partner, bury a child or get a chronic illness. you survive those things too.
My doctor says I don't have a 5 year survival rate. I tell you I have a 10 year coin collection plan.
6 months ago I didn't even know Coin Chat existed but I have been a non stop coin collector since 1967. (Still wouldn't know it existed if my dog hadn't died). There are tens of thousands of collectors who don't know it's a terrible market; and don't care either. It is their hobby not how they butter their bread.
Some of you might need to take a step back. If you have a wife pick a fight with her. Then make up. If you don't have a wife then make one of those stupid bucket lists and do one of the things. Afterwards take John's favorite advice to heart (John died in 2002). "There is no sense in getting shook up now. You were probably screwed before you ever started.) I miss John.

 

You had me starting to feel depressed. The Index appears to have what I and many others here would call investor coins, namely MS, PR and rarities (such as the 1877 Indian Cent). What a relief! I sincerely doubt I own any of the 3000, and if so, they would be in the mid to lower grades (to match my socioeconomic status). I would like to see an index showing prices for coins that many here collect, namely G-VG-F, cents, nickels, dimes, etc., leaving out the rarities that the top .001% lust for.