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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;HawkeEye, post: 2813726, member: 86305&quot;]Interesting discussion and I tried to arrive at a surviving number a while back for the 1881-O Morgan Dollar.&nbsp; Starting with 5,708,000; assuming the big government melt happened proportionally; and a loss rate of only 0.1% of the remaining coins to <u>any</u> source like Government melting, dealer melting, losing the coin, wear, etc, you get to some interesting numbers.&nbsp; It is a bit like the long term effect of compound interest, and 1881 was a long time back.&nbsp; 136 years back actually.&nbsp; The big melts occurred between 1918-1920, but there were government melts of Morgan dollars every year up to 1964.&nbsp; This gives you a chart that looks like this.</p><p>[ATTACH=full]659100[/ATTACH]</p><p>So out of the original coins (5.7 million) I would estimate that 605,000 remain.&nbsp; For a mint state collector you have to rule out circulated coins and those excessively damaged in other ways.&nbsp; I would agree that today most of those turned in wind up in bags of bulk silver, especially circulated coins.&nbsp; But if those never see the light of day again, then for collectors that is the same as if they were melted.</p><p><br /></p><p>But as with all coin collecting that involves silver or gold coins, the survival factor has an impact on rarity and price.&nbsp; This is one of the great unknowns of the hobby, but also the Achilles heel of the hobby because investing in rare, high-grade coins can be a trap.&nbsp; The next Redfield Hoard can be lurking around the corner and the rarity factor can go out the window with your investment.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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