I was wondering if someone could tell me if Heritage's Value Index is an accurate form of determining values for any given coin? I'm trying my hand at some of the other auction sites and would like to get an idea of a fair price to pay, especially when you have to figure in the buyer's premium. Any info or insight would be most appreciated.
They aren't too bad, but like all price guides some coins are high, others are low. If you give the specific coin and grade, I might be able to provide a better answer.... That said/asked, coin valuation is probably the hardest part of numismatics, as it adds the challenges of grading to the requisite knoweldge of the market and pricing. Although I shy away from generalities, and it certainly depends on the source and of course the coin itself, but you can generally expect to pay more than the average Heritage sales price (including juice). But as always, it really depends on the coin itself. For instance, say you're going to buy an AU 55 1847 large cent. The Heritage price guide shows a price of $115-150 -- and say for a moment that the average auctoin price was $125. The coin in question is a choice AU coin -- gorgeous with only light wear and completely original with nice luster and is easliy better than 99% of the examples you would see. Is $150 a fair price for this coin? Is $250? On the other hand, suppose the second example of the 1847 large cent was recolored, had a small rim ding, and had a few spots. Is $115 a fair price? Is $100? HINT: There is no right answer! Because... In the end valuation is up to the one doing the buying. Either you want the coin more than your money or you don't. If you are going to use a price guide, I would suggest the greysheet. It is what dealer's use for their pricing, and while low, should give you a realistic floor for the value of your coins. You should generally be able to get pretty close to "bid" on any given coin, but for all except the most common coins, don't expect to be able to buy for "ask" either. But again, please tell me what coin, specifically, you are interested in and I (or someone else more familiar with the series) can give you more pertinent advice. Good luck...Mike
Thanks for taking some time to clarify things Mike. The coin I'm interested in is an 1873 $5 Liberty Open 3 PCGS 62.
I usually check heritage values before buying. As a general rule they are a little high on raw coins. I think for top tpg graded coins they are pretty close. I also check completed auctions as a secondary opinion. In the end if the coin looks nice and the price seems fair, I'd go for it. If you do buy it, please show us some pics.
Normally I ignore the value index. I prefer to look at the individual auction realized prices. That allows you to judge each coin individually and compare them to others of the same grade. What this does is help you understand that not all coins of a given grade are equal. For instance, 6 1878-CC Morgan dollars, all graded as MS64 by NGC, might vary in price by as much as $150. But if look at each coin you will soon understand why. And once you understand why, then you can see how the individual coin you are looking at compares to the others and see what that particular coin is likely to cost.
Thanks GD, but isn't the value index made up from the realized auction prices? For example, when you look up an 1856 D $5 Lib. NGC55 (3600-4500), isn't that the low and high of all the coins in that grade realized final auction prices? Anyway, I think it's a very useful tool in determining what I think I should bid on any given coin. Thanks to all of you for the insight, you know, you always learn something new every day.
Heritage doesn't give a Value Index price for this coin in this grade. dd: PCGS's price is $1500 which is a bit low from my cursory searches on this particular coin. Like GDJMSP, I find greater value in actual auction results rather than any price guide. That said, I'd say $2k plus or minus $500 -- depending on the specific example -- is a fair price. Take a look here for some examples that have sold at auction: http://coins.ha.com/common/view_item.php?Sale_No=22063&Lot_No=15478#photo I would also humbly and respectfully suggest that you ask for professional help to review the coin for you and help guide you as to the correct bid price given the market variability and the specific coin. I would be very wary of bidding on a coin at this level without either seeing the coin myself, or having someone I know and trust view it. Hope this helps...Mike
p.s. DISCLAIMER: I don't follow this series closely, and I would certainly yield to someone with greater experience with half eagles.
GDJMSP makes a very important point. I always look at the Heritage completed auctions as a guide before I buy something and it is apparent that there is a large variability, even with coins in the same auction that is often based on appearance. So, I think it's often reasonable to pay significantly more than the most recent closed auctions without feeling bad if the coin is exceptionally nice compared to the reference listings.
Yes it is Alf, and that is exactly the problem - it is an average. But if you are bidding a given coin, how do you know where, within the average, that given coin would fall ? Would it be on the high end, the low end or in the middle ? Say the difference between the high and low was $900 (as in your example) and you followed the average bidding in the middle. If the coin turned out to be a low end coin for the grade you just paid $450 too much by bidding the average. Understand now ?
this is the best advice that can be given. more often than not heritage, and all other, auction houses tend to bring higher than normal prices for even mediocre examples within a given series due to the tax bracket that those in the bidding audience belong in, the spirit of the bidding, premiums, and whether or not there is a serious under-bidder just to name a few. greysheets, and any other colored ''sheets,'' on the other are often priced very low. i would love to buy my pieces at greysheet/type prices. if you're dealing with collector grade coins or examples that are widely available price is usually dictated by the quality of the item. and many times price guides can be thrown out the window for no reason at all... each niche, each type, each series, each year, each variety, and each die pairing has their own peculiarities and nuances. those bidders or collectors who can master each, along with patience, end up buying or selling the right coin for the right price regardless of what the guides dictate.
