Message:

<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Publius2, post: 24793501, member: 105571&quot;][USER=28385]@CCMint[/USER], you asked for our thoughts so I&#039;ll add mine.</p><p><br /></p><p>Authenticity:&nbsp; The coin appears to be the BB-255 die marriage, a common marriage with 1000s estimated available in mid-range grades.&nbsp; Of course, it could still be a counterfeit where the counterfeiter wisely and knowledgeably choose to copy a genuine die marriage.&nbsp; I am a bit put off by the truncated points on Stars 10 and 11, a feature that is not seen on genuine BB-255s.&nbsp; See comments under &quot;Grade&quot; below.</p><p><br /></p><p>Grade:&nbsp; I&#039;ll agree with a fineness grade of VF-20 with the added note that the fields are pretty nice for this grade.&nbsp; The coin has very few and very small circulation marks, less than I would expect to see for the wear.&nbsp; Has it been cleaned and/or smoothed?&nbsp; Let&#039;s say probably cleaned.&nbsp; As I said, the fields are very clean so I wouldn&#039;t want to opine on whether it&#039;s been smoothed without a close in-hand examination.&nbsp; These comments also go to its authenticity.&nbsp; If the coin is counterfeit and artificially worn and toned, we might expect to see fewer circulation marks and cleaner fields than a genuine coin of similar fineness.</p><p><br /></p><p>Value:&nbsp; A straight-graded VF-20 in a PCGS or NGC slab appears in Greysheet at $2000 (your coin is the &quot;Large 3&quot;) and in the CDN Retail Guide at $2500.&nbsp; These price guides are only relevant to slabbed coins.&nbsp; A raw coin, all other things being equal, is worth less and not just accounting for slabbing, insurance and shipping fees (See &quot;Risk Management&quot; below).&nbsp;&nbsp; I would discount raw value by 10% to 15% from slabbed value.&nbsp; If the coin has an old cleaning, the price guides are definitely out.&nbsp; I would expect an otherwise unobjectionable coin like this to be discounted for an old cleaning by about 20% to 30% of straight-grade value.&nbsp; If the coin has been smoothed, I would discount by about 40% for this coin.&nbsp; If both, a discount of 40% to 50% is in order.</p><p><br /></p><p>So, this raw coin is worth from a high of $2250 (raw, straight-grade off of CDN Retail) to a possible low of $1000 (raw, cleaned and smoothed off of Greysheet Wholesale. </p><p><br /></p><p>Conclusion regarding value is that no matter how you cut it, the price on the 2X2 of $2950 is no bargain and is not even close to reasonable.</p><p><br /></p><p>Risk Management:&nbsp; Here&#039;s the rub.&nbsp; If you buy this coin, you take on all the risk of grade and authenticity.&nbsp;&nbsp; For me to assume this risk, the coin would have to be very special (very rare die marriage/cherry pick &amp; etc.) AND the price would have to be very sweet.&nbsp; This coin has neither feature going for it.&nbsp; And, this coin has questions swirling around it with regard to both issues of grade and authenticity.</p><p><br /></p><p>Suggestion for moving forward:&nbsp; If you have as-yet unstated reasons for your interest in this particular coin, then you might consider striking a deal with the seller wherein he submits the coin to PCGS or NGC and if it comes back with a straight-grade of whatever you pre-negotiate with the dealer, then you will pay him a pre-negotiated price for that grade plus all the submission costs.&nbsp; If the coin comes back genuine but with a details grade, then it&#039;s up to you whether or not you want to pre-negotiate a price for that outcome.&nbsp; Obviously, if the coin comes back counterfeit there is no deal.&nbsp; This puts all the risk of the transaction on him, where it belongs, while still guaranteeing him a sale if the coin is what he says it is.</p><p><br /></p><p>What would [USER=105571]@Publius2[/USER] do?&nbsp; A common, raw coin at a high price that I can get slabbed anywhere for a better price?&nbsp; I&#039;d go elsewhere and not go to all the bother and uncertainty.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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