Guess the Grade--1923 Peace Dollar NGC

:kewl:
I voted MS-65 as most Item lehigh shows the forum are or above a MS- 65
:thumb:?:foot-mouth:

 

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Well so much for gradeflation. Here is a coin graded by NGC over a decade ago that all but a handfull of collectors thought would be at most an MS64 yet bears a grade of MS65.



And while I submit this coin as evidence that the grading standards have not changed, I am sure the detractors will simply claim that the coin was graded incorrectly. But even that admission would seem to support my theory that it is the inconsistency inherent in the grading process that leads to gradeflation, not an intentional shift in grading standards.

 

I gave it a 65 because I tend to micrograde your photographs. How does it look in hand and what is you opinion of it?

 

IMO, Mike's assessment of the grade is spot on!

That said, it does not look out of place in an MS65 holder, but no way does this coin ever qualify for a CAC sticker at the MS65 grade.

 

Good bet on a 64

 

1 thing that may make it a True Blue MS-65.Graders grade 3 sides of coin Obv may be 64 but Rev & rim maybe MS-68.that would drop the # down to a MS-65 over all gradeld-guy-smile:???

 

Just a question, I voted 64 (before going to page 2 and finding it a 65); does the weak strike on the back not bear much weight when it comes to grading peace dollars? I called it a 64 because I thought it was a 65 obverse with a 63 reverse... did I penalize the reverse way too much for its strike?

 

I think there are two things going on here....

First, gradeflation is real. There are many instances of more conservatively graded coins graded years ago upgrading. While I haven't seen it in the past 6 years or so, other coin collectors who I trust and have good grading eyes confirm it. I believe them.

Second, overgraded coins tend to remain in overgraded holders. Said a bit differently, nobody in their right mind would EVER crack out that Peace dollar because it would not likely grade that again. Put that coin in a 63 holder, and it wouldn't last long. This is not necessarily a change in grading standards, but a side effect of the subjective nature of grading (i.e. the "error rate" of grades). When this happens again and again over time the end result is that coins tend to seek the highest grade possible.

Both of these factors, IMO, have led to the apparently more relaxed grading standards and slabbed coins of today.

 

I have explained my opinion regarding gradeflation before and we have had this discussion before. I freely admit that gradeflation exists but I do not think that it is a result of a intentional shift in grading standards by the TPG's. Feel free to read our exchange in the thread linked below.

Guess the Grade--1941-S Jefferson Nickel

In a nutshell, gradeflation exists because of the inconsistency inherent in the grading process combined with the financial incentive of the collector/dealer to resubmit coins in hopes of a higher grade and more money. Now in your post above, you use the terms over-grading and under-grading. I don't think those terms are accurate at all and should be stricken from the conversation. Not every coin is a no brainer for a specific grade. In fact, most coins can easily be graded correctly yet be assigned different grades by different graders. The reason for this is that grading is inherently inconsistent and is an opinion of the graders. Let's take a look at the subject coin of this thread again.



Many graders would examine this coin and limit the grade of the coin because of the marks on the focal areas of the coin. However, the coin has premium gem luster, and above average strike, and formidable eye appeal. These virtues of the coin would cause many graders to grade the coin MS65. Which grade the coin receives depends solely upon the graders assigned to evaluate that specific coin. It is entirely possible that upon initial submission that this coin could receive the MS65 grade that it has. But if you cracked it out and resubmit it a month later, the coin might very well grade MS64. And I submit to you Doug, that both grades are correct. This coin is not a lock at either grade. It is either a PQ MS64 or a low end MS65. And this is where the gradeflation is born. Everytime a coin such as this is graded MS65, it is destined to be permanently entombed as a low end representative for the assigned grade. You admitted this in your post above. However, if this coin were graded MS64 and the price difference between MS64 & MS65 were substantial enough ($400 in this case), every collector/dealer who owned this coin would then have a financial incentive to have the coin regraded. Since we have already admitted that the coin will grade MS65 by some graders, it is only a matter of time until the coin upgrades and gradeflation prevails.

Please note that nothing in this scenario to explain gradeflation includes a conscious effort on the part of the TPG's to change their grading standards. Now if you want me to believe that as the PQ coins are eliminated and the low end coin populations grow, the accepted standard for what defines a specific grade is affected, I will admit that is possible. But there is no way you will get me to believe that the TPG's or the graders they employ intentionally change their grading standards.

Now you contend that someday the TPG's will tighten their grading standards. Why would they need to do that Doug? This coin was graded over a decade ago and it was a PQ MS64 or a low end MS65 when it was graded. Based upon the responses from the most knowledgeable graders on this forum, the coin is still either a PQ MS64 or low end MS65. If the grading standards had really changed over time as you believe, then why don't the members of this forum think the coin is an MS66?

 

I think you both are right -- both factors (i.e. gradeflation and "coins seek the highest graded slab over time") are real.

 

I agree Doug!
but over all folk like'Ha.Stacks and other will still get the higher side of a grade in most cases.

 

I think we are agreeing here.

That stated, what's the larger influence, in your opinion?

 

And what prompted the public to suddenly stop accepting over grading, all of a sudden?

Fine, I will expect that you not engage in anymore guess the grade threads and post an obligatory message to every thread that grading coins using photos is pointless. Now we know you won't do that. Would you like to admit why?

I have long said that "buy the coin not the holder" should only apply to collectors who have the ability to grade coins with a level of proficiency that enables them to evaluate and question the grade assigned by the professional on a consistent basis. It occurs to me that I am pretty good a calling plays while watching NFL games on Sundays. It freaks other people out when I call the exact play run next by the offense. But how do you think I would do as an offensive coordinator in the NFL? Think about it for a minute, it is an apt analogy for most coin collectors.

That is not even close to the truth. When it comes to Jefferson Nickels, I would rate my grading skills equal to that of the professional graders and I don't even need their opinion. For many other series, Morgan Dollars, Peace Dollars, Mercury Dimes, SLQ's I have a very good knowledge of grading and when I don't agree with the assigned grade at first glance, I examine the coin closely to try and figure out the reason why the TPG assigned the grade they did. Most of the time, I can understand the reason for their grade even if it differs with my own opinion of grade. Lastly, for most copper and gold series, I am a newbie and completely at the mercy of the TPG's. My only grading experience in these series comes from general grading knowledge.

I have been collecting coins since 1980. I used to take my allowance money and go to Kane's Coins in Ocean City, NJ and buy circulated Mercury Dimes when I was 8 years old. From my teenage years to my late 20's, I did not collect coins for two interrelated reasons, I was both married and poor. In fact, I purchased an MS66 SLQ in 1998 for $800 which contributed greatly to my divorce. In the late 90's, I started buying both rare coins and modern proof and mint sets. I joined PCGS and started sending in coins to be graded. It only took a few submissions for me to realize that I was way in over my head and had no idea how to grade coins. From that point on, I only purchased NGC & PCGS graded coins and completely immersed myself in research. I read many grading books, looked at thousands of coins online, and bought hundreds of coins spanning my favorite series which were blast white Morgans, Mercury Dimes, and Walkers at the time. In 2001, I was searching the Atlanta Signature Sale looking for MS67 Mercury Dimes when I discovered this coin.

http://coins.ha.com/common/view_item.php?Sale_No=267&Lot_No=5765#Photo

My love for rainbow toned coins was born. I sold all of my blast white Morgans, Mercuries, and Walkers and started buying up every incredible rainbow toned coin I could afford from every series. I somehow wrangled this shotgun toning collection into a rainbow toned type set and joined the NGC registry. In 2008, I joined some coin forums and ran into an Appalachian toned Jefferson Nickel on Anaconda's site. My love for Jefferson Nickels was born. You have seen my involvement on this forum over the last few years. My dedication to the hobby was just as intense and time consuming prior to 2008, but it was much more of a solitary activity for me. I still spent hours every week searching all of the online sites (Heritage, E-Bay, and retail sites) for possible additions to my collection.

I have explained my view on the subject many times over the last few days. You are so convinced of your own infallibility, that you can't bring yourself to even consider that what you think you may know to be a fact could very well be wrong. I believe gradeflation to be a very real problem in numismatics, but I simply don't believe that the TPG's intentionally change their grading standards in order to boost submissions. I don't think you have an ulterior motive, but I do think that you and others who believe what you believe are wrong.

And these experts that you speak of don't share your opinion. Here is quote from Q. David Bowers on the subject from THE EXPERT'S GUIDE TO COLLECTING & INVESTING IN RARE COINS.

Bowers obviously believes that the standards have relaxed over time, but nowhere does he state that it was a result of an intentional shift designed to boos submissions.

 

Wonderful. Now the cat's out of the bag.

 

Fascinating answer. I'll have to discuss this topic with other experienced numismatists to get a gauge on others perspective. Franky, my gut doesn't agree with you, but I must admit you have vastly more experience with respect to the TPG grading standards of yesteryear.