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<p>[QUOTE="physics-fan3.14, post: 2566546, member: 19165"]Using actual auction records and completed sales is definitely the best way to gauge the value of a coin. Sometimes this can be a laborious process, and you and I may not actually come to the same result without applying statistical analysis methods. I still like to do this, however, because it gives me that intangible "feel" for the market.</p><p><br /></p><p>I think what the CDN tries to do is to use these same auction records, do the analysis for you, and output their "feel" for the market. The CDN is based on auction sales, and is really using the same methods that we do - but they may come to a different conclusion. They look at far more coins than I do, of course.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>I treat any price guide as a good price for an average coin. If the coin is attractive, original, and with exceptional eye appeal, you can bet that the price guide won't be close. If the coin is an overgraded, cleaned dog (and yes, these are plentiful even in slabs), the price guide is probably quite a bit too high.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>Yes, at the end of the day there has to be an end user. Otherwise it will just keep going round and round with dealers taking their cut and asking for more. That's a sure-fire way to collapse the market.</p><p><br /></p><p>I think (I hope) what Doug is trying to say is that at shows, much of the business is dealer to dealer. There is a lot of networking at shows, and collectors meet dealers face to face (but may not necessarily buy from them at the show). After the show, the dealers have websites, shops, etc., and sell more coins outside of the show at retail. Collectors also will leave want lists with a dealer - the dealer will obtain coins at the show (which the collector may not have been able to attend), and will then sell the coin at retail to the collector later. Ultimately, the coin industry is a business - not a Ponzi scheme.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>Gradeflation is a real thing, and has been discussed at length on these boards. It may not be as overwhelmingly pernicious or pervasive as some posters argue, but it is real.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="physics-fan3.14, post: 2566546, member: 19165"]Using actual auction records and completed sales is definitely the best way to gauge the value of a coin. Sometimes this can be a laborious process, and you and I may not actually come to the same result without applying statistical analysis methods. I still like to do this, however, because it gives me that intangible "feel" for the market. I think what the CDN tries to do is to use these same auction records, do the analysis for you, and output their "feel" for the market. The CDN is based on auction sales, and is really using the same methods that we do - but they may come to a different conclusion. They look at far more coins than I do, of course. I treat any price guide as a good price for an average coin. If the coin is attractive, original, and with exceptional eye appeal, you can bet that the price guide won't be close. If the coin is an overgraded, cleaned dog (and yes, these are plentiful even in slabs), the price guide is probably quite a bit too high. Yes, at the end of the day there has to be an end user. Otherwise it will just keep going round and round with dealers taking their cut and asking for more. That's a sure-fire way to collapse the market. I think (I hope) what Doug is trying to say is that at shows, much of the business is dealer to dealer. There is a lot of networking at shows, and collectors meet dealers face to face (but may not necessarily buy from them at the show). After the show, the dealers have websites, shops, etc., and sell more coins outside of the show at retail. Collectors also will leave want lists with a dealer - the dealer will obtain coins at the show (which the collector may not have been able to attend), and will then sell the coin at retail to the collector later. Ultimately, the coin industry is a business - not a Ponzi scheme. Gradeflation is a real thing, and has been discussed at length on these boards. It may not be as overwhelmingly pernicious or pervasive as some posters argue, but it is real.[/QUOTE]
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