Discussion in 'Coin Chat' started by jfscmedic, Nov 9, 2016.
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Then why bother in the first place?
This is what happens when the majority of collectors decided to place their fates in the hands of for-profit businesses instead of educating themselves. One of my "coin mentors" told me back in the early days of the TPGs that in time standards would change, and for the simple fact that their business model demands it and because common sense dictates as much. A very wise man, he was, but he couldn't magically see the future. All that has happened over the past 30ish years was absolutely predictable. The bed has been made, and now this hobby as a whole must lie in it.
I like to have valuable coins slabbed, my grandchildren and non-numismatic friends can look at my coins and I don't have to worry about them handling the coins improperly.
My post was in total agreement with you, sir. Your approach indicates you're one of the wise, but isn't to say there's anything wrong with stabbing.
P.S. The correct term is "gradeflation" (as you originally had it).
This guy is in the wrong business...
Using actual auction records and completed sales is definitely the best way to gauge the value of a coin. Sometimes this can be a laborious process, and you and I may not actually come to the same result without applying statistical analysis methods. I still like to do this, however, because it gives me that intangible "feel" for the market.
I think what the CDN tries to do is to use these same auction records, do the analysis for you, and output their "feel" for the market. The CDN is based on auction sales, and is really using the same methods that we do - but they may come to a different conclusion. They look at far more coins than I do, of course.
I treat any price guide as a good price for an average coin. If the coin is attractive, original, and with exceptional eye appeal, you can bet that the price guide won't be close. If the coin is an overgraded, cleaned dog (and yes, these are plentiful even in slabs), the price guide is probably quite a bit too high.
Yes, at the end of the day there has to be an end user. Otherwise it will just keep going round and round with dealers taking their cut and asking for more. That's a sure-fire way to collapse the market.
I think (I hope) what Doug is trying to say is that at shows, much of the business is dealer to dealer. There is a lot of networking at shows, and collectors meet dealers face to face (but may not necessarily buy from them at the show). After the show, the dealers have websites, shops, etc., and sell more coins outside of the show at retail. Collectors also will leave want lists with a dealer - the dealer will obtain coins at the show (which the collector may not have been able to attend), and will then sell the coin at retail to the collector later. Ultimately, the coin industry is a business - not a Ponzi scheme.
Gradeflation is a real thing, and has been discussed at length on these boards. It may not be as overwhelmingly pernicious or pervasive as some posters argue, but it is real.
They also use reported (private) sales from dealers to get a more holistic view of the market.
Agree with @SuperDave here's some recent 31 S Wheats
So unless you're a coin dealer operating in a ritzy area I wouldn't expect to see those prices when you sell.
But without knowing more specifics is hard to to say
IMO, it depends on the auction house and what other big auctions are going on at the time. Last year, I used two different auction houses. 1 met my expectations with my net return, the other was a major disappointment. I sold coins in PCGS and NGC holders at both auctions. I didn't experience higher returns with one TPG over the other. For example, I sold a Morgan in a rattler with a gold bean. Return was very disappointing.
Sorry to hear you had a similar experience.
If its the auction house I think it was, their prices are generally soft and people find out the hard way using them. I'm not a fan selling there at all. Doesn't make you dumb by any means.
That's brutal if you didn't get a strong premium. Sorry to hear that
That's why I use ANACS for a lot of coins. Can get a descent holder for ~$10.
You certainly have the right to your opinion
Norm what you need to realize, or should I say learn, is that price guides are worthless. Worse than worthless even for they do to many folks exactly what they have done to you - they completely distort reality.
For example, you mentioned your '87 in 66 sold for $192.89 - that is right in line with the current, real world, value of that coin. About $10 low but right in line.
You also need to realize what has been happening to Morgan dollar values over the last 10 years. This graph will illustrate that for you.
The values of Morgan dollars in general are currently lower than they have been since 1998.
So did you use the wrong venue ? No. Are you an idiot ? No, just uneducated. But perhaps more importantly - misled into believing something that is patently untrue by using a bad source for values.
Let's say they recognize that the value of the coin is really $100 too high in the price guide.
If they drop it from 300 to 200, the press is going to go OMG the value of rare coins is cratering. News articles heavy downward pressure... the old if it bleeds it leads.
If they start dropping it slowly say 10 bucks a month for the next 10 months they're going to get the same reaction:OMG the value of rare coins is cratering with the added bonus headline: quick sell now before it goes down further.
So they keep the prices steady until such time as hopefully they can raise them a bit.
Think about it for a minute. If the general public knew, really knew, that prices were dropping steadily and had been doing so for 10 years now and showing no signs of slowing down, submissions to TPGs would drop off because a lot of folks would say it's not worth it anymore. Magazine subscriptions, visits to coin websites, visits to dealer sites and shops, basically anything and everything having to do with the hobby would drop off because interest in the hobby would decrease. Especially among those newer to the hobby. And I say that because a very large percentage of those who have been only been involved with the hobby for a few years maybe even 10 years, and even some for many years - do so largely because they "think" collecting coins is profitable. In other words making money is their primary incentive for even doing it ! So if they think they're gonna lose money - everything slows down ! And that's why price guides, ALL OF THEM, are and always have been worthless ! They are smoke and mirrors designed to fool people.
Sadly, it usually takes a long time for collectors to finally figure out that about 95% or more of collectors lose money on their collections.
I wouldn't even mind sending coins to ICG or SEGS if I just wanted a holder. Some people collect and can grade coins, while others care about the plastic.
Why not just buy your own slab-style coin holders for a buck apiece?
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