Greysheet VS What you pay for coins

Discussion in 'Coin Chat' started by jfscmedic, Nov 9, 2016.

  1. TheMont

    TheMont Well-Known Member

    I wonder, if the coin had graded as an MS67 would the dealer have charged an MS66 price? My point is, buy the coin, not the slab.
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  3. BooksB4Coins

    BooksB4Coins Newbieus Sempiterna

    Then why bother in the first place?

    This is what happens when the majority of collectors decided to place their fates in the hands of for-profit businesses instead of educating themselves. One of my "coin mentors" told me back in the early days of the TPGs that in time standards would change, and for the simple fact that their business model demands it and because common sense dictates as much. A very wise man, he was, but he couldn't magically see the future. All that has happened over the past 30ish years was absolutely predictable. The bed has been made, and now this hobby as a whole must lie in it.
  4. TheMont

    TheMont Well-Known Member

    One of the most respected persons in numismatics, Q. David Bowers, has been writing extensively about what he calls gradeflation (gradeinflation? not quite sure of his term) How TPGs have stopped following the standards set by the ANA and other respected graders and have relaxed their rules as to the grade of a coin. That's why I made the statement that I look at a coin, not the holder, when I make a purchase.

    I like to have valuable coins slabbed, my grandchildren and non-numismatic friends can look at my coins and I don't have to worry about them handling the coins improperly.
    Tebbiebear likes this.
  5. BooksB4Coins

    BooksB4Coins Newbieus Sempiterna

    My post was in total agreement with you, sir. Your approach indicates you're one of the wise, but isn't to say there's anything wrong with stabbing.

    P.S. The correct term is "gradeflation" (as you originally had it). :)
  6. Dancing Fire

    Dancing Fire Junior Member

    This guy is in the wrong business...:rolleyes:
  7. Silverhouse

    Silverhouse Well-Known Member

    Dealers trying to make you pay for their mistakes. I've had similar dealers tell me the same at the Balt-Whitman show. Pfft. I just kept on movin'.
    joecoincollect likes this.
  8. physics-fan3.14

    physics-fan3.14 You got any more of them.... prooflikes?

    Using actual auction records and completed sales is definitely the best way to gauge the value of a coin. Sometimes this can be a laborious process, and you and I may not actually come to the same result without applying statistical analysis methods. I still like to do this, however, because it gives me that intangible "feel" for the market.

    I think what the CDN tries to do is to use these same auction records, do the analysis for you, and output their "feel" for the market. The CDN is based on auction sales, and is really using the same methods that we do - but they may come to a different conclusion. They look at far more coins than I do, of course.

    I treat any price guide as a good price for an average coin. If the coin is attractive, original, and with exceptional eye appeal, you can bet that the price guide won't be close. If the coin is an overgraded, cleaned dog (and yes, these are plentiful even in slabs), the price guide is probably quite a bit too high.

    Yes, at the end of the day there has to be an end user. Otherwise it will just keep going round and round with dealers taking their cut and asking for more. That's a sure-fire way to collapse the market.

    I think (I hope) what Doug is trying to say is that at shows, much of the business is dealer to dealer. There is a lot of networking at shows, and collectors meet dealers face to face (but may not necessarily buy from them at the show). After the show, the dealers have websites, shops, etc., and sell more coins outside of the show at retail. Collectors also will leave want lists with a dealer - the dealer will obtain coins at the show (which the collector may not have been able to attend), and will then sell the coin at retail to the collector later. Ultimately, the coin industry is a business - not a Ponzi scheme.

    Gradeflation is a real thing, and has been discussed at length on these boards. It may not be as overwhelmingly pernicious or pervasive as some posters argue, but it is real.
  9. Burton Strauss III

    Burton Strauss III Brother can you spare a trime? Supporter

    They also use reported (private) sales from dealers to get a more holistic view of the market.
  10. fish4uinmd

    fish4uinmd Well-Known Member

    Agree with @SuperDave here's some recent 31 S Wheats

  11. Norm Fox

    Norm Fox New Member

    I am still a novice collector. Though I have been collecting for about 6 years. I have collected multiple coins. I recently sold 14 of my graded Morgans via a reputable internet auction house. I am not very happy with the results but want to gauge my displeasure until I have some kind of benchmark to use as those results were standard for the market. I used the NGC price guide as a barometer. The aforementioned auction house listed, i.e. the min bid for my 87 Morgan in ms-66 PCGS at $100, sold for 192.89 net to me 164.75 Price guide-$325. Could someone weigh in as to whether I am an idiot an used the wrong venue or not? And could anyone guide me as to a better way to realize the best values for future coins that I may wish to sell?
  12. Burton Strauss III

    Burton Strauss III Brother can you spare a trime? Supporter

    The NGC and PCGS price guides are pretty much full retail and probably high retail at that.

    So unless you're a coin dealer operating in a ritzy area I wouldn't expect to see those prices when you sell.

    But without knowing more specifics is hard to to say
  13. JPeace$

    JPeace$ Coinaholic

    IMO, it depends on the auction house and what other big auctions are going on at the time. Last year, I used two different auction houses. 1 met my expectations with my net return, the other was a major disappointment. I sold coins in PCGS and NGC holders at both auctions. I didn't experience higher returns with one TPG over the other. For example, I sold a Morgan in a rattler with a gold bean. Return was very disappointing.

    Sorry to hear you had a similar experience.
  14. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    If its the auction house I think it was, their prices are generally soft and people find out the hard way using them. I'm not a fan selling there at all. Doesn't make you dumb by any means.

    That's brutal if you didn't get a strong premium. Sorry to hear that
  15. TheFinn

    TheFinn Well-Known Member

    That's why I use ANACS for a lot of coins. Can get a descent holder for ~$10.
  16. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    You certainly have the right to your opinion
  17. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    Norm what you need to realize, or should I say learn, is that price guides are worthless. Worse than worthless even for they do to many folks exactly what they have done to you - they completely distort reality.

    For example, you mentioned your '87 in 66 sold for $192.89 - that is right in line with the current, real world, value of that coin. About $10 low but right in line.

    You also need to realize what has been happening to Morgan dollar values over the last 10 years. This graph will illustrate that for you.


    The values of Morgan dollars in general are currently lower than they have been since 1998.

    So did you use the wrong venue ? No. Are you an idiot ? No, just uneducated. But perhaps more importantly - misled into believing something that is patently untrue by using a bad source for values.
  18. Burton Strauss III

    Burton Strauss III Brother can you spare a trime? Supporter

    You also need to recognize that the compilers of the various price guides have a vested interest in continuing study or an upward climb.

    Let's say they recognize that the value of the coin is really $100 too high in the price guide.

    If they drop it from 300 to 200, the press is going to go OMG the value of rare coins is cratering. News articles heavy downward pressure... the old if it bleeds it leads.

    If they start dropping it slowly say 10 bucks a month for the next 10 months they're going to get the same reaction:OMG the value of rare coins is cratering with the added bonus headline: quick sell now before it goes down further.

    So they keep the prices steady until such time as hopefully they can raise them a bit.
  19. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    I'd agree with Burton that that's part of it. The other part is the industry as a whole, and that especially includes the TPGs and all of the others who produce price guides need to keep the impression that coin values are much higher than they are in the real world - just to keep their businesses up and running at a profitable margin.

    Think about it for a minute. If the general public knew, really knew, that prices were dropping steadily and had been doing so for 10 years now and showing no signs of slowing down, submissions to TPGs would drop off because a lot of folks would say it's not worth it anymore. Magazine subscriptions, visits to coin websites, visits to dealer sites and shops, basically anything and everything having to do with the hobby would drop off because interest in the hobby would decrease. Especially among those newer to the hobby. And I say that because a very large percentage of those who have been only been involved with the hobby for a few years maybe even 10 years, and even some for many years - do so largely because they "think" collecting coins is profitable. In other words making money is their primary incentive for even doing it ! So if they think they're gonna lose money - everything slows down ! And that's why price guides, ALL OF THEM, are and always have been worthless ! They are smoke and mirrors designed to fool people.

    Sadly, it usually takes a long time for collectors to finally figure out that about 95% or more of collectors lose money on their collections.
  20. TheFinn

    TheFinn Well-Known Member

    I wouldn't even mind sending coins to ICG or SEGS if I just wanted a holder. Some people collect and can grade coins, while others care about the plastic.
  21. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    Why not just buy your own slab-style coin holders for a buck apiece?
    baseball21 likes this.
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