Discussion in 'Coin Chat' started by jfscmedic, Nov 9, 2016.
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And for $140, that 1931-S had better be MS63, because that's what real-world sales results indicate I should be able to get it for.
I do use the E-Bay site SOLD listings to guide my prices for buy and sell. I agree too on the 1931-S I saw one in a shop not long ago NGC MS-63 RB for $150. I wasn't about to pay $140 for a VF-30
see how the differences in quality affected the hammer price. It's less important to know that the Greysheet values a coin at $500 when you see some poor examples at that grade going for $350 and nicer examples for $800. You have to be able to value a coin yourself.
As for auction results, most coins selling at major auction are not selling to the end buyer . . . usually to dealers or to buyer's representatives. Auction prices realized at lesser auctions are often for problem coins, improperly graded coins, or for slow-moving deadwood, but not always. Be careful how much you value such information, as it may cause you to pass on a deal that was worth jumping on.
That kinda depends on who's doing the buying, somebody knowledgeable or plastic buyers. And since plastic buyers far, far, outnumber knowledgeable buyers - well, the rest doesn't really need saying.
Also, the Grey Sheet aint what it used to be ! Grey Sheet values have taken huge jumps pretty much across the board - all while the coin market has been dropping steadily since the change was made.
As a whole, the coin market is at the lowest level it has been since 2005. And if it keeps going down, it will surpass even that !
While the Grey Sheet has indeed taken huge jumps, they have not been across the board . . . most common coins have either not moved, or decreased in value, while sleeper dates have jumped substantially.
I was buying and selling better dated material to and from knowledgable sellers and buyers in some series for multiples of grey sheet for several years before the corrections were made.
You may recall my lamenting the gross inadequacy of the Grey Sheet in its failure to determine and publish the true value of scarcer material. The sheet is now much closer to being in line with real market values for those dates, although a lot of buyers are no longer happy about that.
Eventually, everyone will adjust to the new information, and trading will normalize again, but it may take some time.
For pricing coins for purchase, I look at the six most recent auction prices on the web, throw out the high and low, and average the four in the middle. I use this as a ballpark guide and keep the spread and trend in mind. I won't buy at all unless I really like the coin itself, which means I'm probably going to pay the average or more. I have a collector, not dealer, approach, so buying a coin I don't like or that doesn't fill a void in my collection at good price just to flip it doesn't occur.
GDJMSP is not correct, of course. We have dropped the prices on thousands of coins as the market has corrected, and often to great criticism from people who don't want us to report such "reality". For example, many high grade Barbers have suffered for months...
On the other hand we properly raised thousands of other coins where CDN ignored pricing for years. Mostly in the Quarterly issues.
Anyone is welcome to send us information on any specific coin to firstname.lastname@example.org for pricing consideration. We review all feedback.
What is a 1912 BQ? A Barber Quarter? We have that coin "Bid" priced at $360. not $160. As a retail buyer you should be able to acquire a nice example well under $500...if not, you may have over paid.
If you succeed in changing the perception and don't adjust the prices, there would be a defacto increase in selling price. So arguably, decreasing prices is not a change in value. Cue gnashing of teeth, wailing, rending of garments...
But as a buyer, what should I expect?
In determining what the price to the purchaser 'should' be, we need to add the markup - dealer's business costs, cost of capital, profit, etc. And so for less common material, where the dealer may have to hold the piece longer it would be reasonable to expect the spread to be larger.
John- we've corresponded on 3 cent silvers, business strikes, 1863-1872, which I still think you have undervalued. Since when I was in the market, I couldn't find any to buy, let alone at a price somehow related to GreySheet...
For example, the 1870 3CS Three Cent Silver Piece business strike in XF 40. If I remember correctly, you still have that coin listed close to $700. So is a 50% markup reasonable?
I come to that number because in the for-sale market place, there is one that I know of at $1,195.
I know it's thinly traded, since before that - in the last two years - three new-to-market pieces traded hands in the 1150-1300 range. This fourth piece has languished on eBay for about six months. Fairly obviously the limited demand has been met.
NGC census lists none in XF40 or XF45, PCGS has 4 XF40s and 8 XF45s.
Heritage lists the following sales
646.25 2013-06-08 XF45 PCGS CAC
402.50 2000-08-07 XF45 PCGS
PCGS has a 2010-08 sale XF45 PCGS at $700.
Is that six year old $700 sale where the BID price comes from?
I guess that depends on how you choose to interpret what I said John. "Pretty much across the board" does not mean that you have increased values of every single coin. Instead it's referring to coins in general as in series and types. And even then it doesn't mean every single one of them.
My primary point John is that Grey Sheet drastically changed their method for establishing values from what they did for decades. In other words you now use a completely different source for establishing those values. You verified this yourself in previous posts.
This change you made took place within the last 2 years, you may of course correct me on that if I am wrong but I don't think I am. And this graph below serves just as a general indicator of what has happened in the coin market during the last 2 years.
Given that, along with what I have observed in the market myself which corroborates that graph, I'm having a hard time understanding this -
I know that there are always anomalies within the market, there are always some coins that go up even in the worst bear market, or go down even in the best bull market. But the PCGS 3000 Index does a pretty good job of reflecting the actual coin market as a whole. And if the market as a whole has been flat or dropping rapidly for at least 6 years as indicated by this graph -
I acknowledge your comment that you have lowered many prices. Given the market that would be expected. But then like I said, I'm having a hard time understanding raising thousands of prices in the CDN. For that seems to be in conflict with what is going on in the coin market based on those graphs, and what I have observed.
For that reason I think I am correct in what I said.
Burton, These scarce, low mintage 3-cent silver are among the most frustrating coins to price. Like AU58-graded coins, often circ example can sell for more than mint state because collectors sometime prefer a choice XF to a shiny MS61, etc.
The best I can tell you in cases like this is we watch for new transactions and react accordingly. From a buyer's perspective don't overpay. Just be patient. I think it's more likely that the ebay coin is overpriced than demand isn't there. Collectibles, like coins, sell for whatever a buyer is willing to pay to a willing seller. There's no magic in the Greysheet numbers to provide a coin at a certain price. We are only trying our best to give an indication to help buyers and sellers come together. If we are lucky, we learn about such transactions and represent them on our sheets.
FYI, I have attached a screen shot of the CDN Exchange (dealer only) screen for the 1870 3-cent silver to show recent auction records for this coin and I'm not convinced at this time that modifying our bid levels is warranted. Heritage just sold a green-label PCGS AU55 for $1,087 in their live auction in September.
Also, you will be interested to see that no less than (6) AU55 examples have been sold at live auction this year alone. All in a similar price ranges. Maybe not as rare as you think...
My response is based on the fact the CDN Quarterly had never properly tracked the market on key date collector coins (like the 1870 3cs in this thread as an example) for years. Better date gold was, across the board, priced well below active market levels. So we didn't increase the prices to react to a rising market, but to get to the proper baseline. Now that we have the levels more in line with reality, it's much easier and more instructive for all when we +/- minus specific issues.
Yes Barber Quarter. I was specifically told that grey sheet on an MS 64 1912 was 160, that he would BUY it for 160. I got mine for under 500. It's not just that one particular dealer, it's this whole area I live in. How insulting ! Needless to say I didn't want to sell, but he saw it in my type set and inquired about it. ( I was there looking for a nice Standing Liberty Quarter to add, but their prices were way too high for a common AU date ) No I didn't sell my 1912. That's AU prices!! It's dealers like that, that do the hobby more harm than good.
Bottom line, any particular coin is a tangible object, that has a finite value. As a collector, I find the comments about X% markup in price because of X factors a bit ludicrous. Certainly, coin dealers must make a living. Most of us know how that is done...more often than not, by paying significantly less that what a collector would be willing to pay and making the resulting profit, not by paying FMV and marking it up. That "wholesale-retail" coin shop markup no longer works with the internet, eBay, multiple sources of information readily available, etc. Or, perhaps, by turning inventory over fast on a small %, as some dealers do to other dealers. None of that changes the actual fair market value of the coin...it is what it is...what a willing seller and buyer can agree upon, whether dealer or collector, and whether a single coin or in a large deal where discounts might be in play.
IMHO - As a collector buyer, I understand that any given dealer might sell a $20 Saint to another dealer for slightly less, but if their is much difference, I will pass on to the next. I have found that my $ are just as good as anyone else's to most dealers, at least the ones that are not strictly dealer-to-dealer.
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