What is your opinion? I have a Whitman Coin Price Guide that was published in 2017 (it says 2018 on the cover). I understand the current market can differ somewhat from my book. I fully understand that prices can vary from week to week as well as year to year. I've never seen prices jump like this (it was an older gold coin)! According to the guy that I was negotiating with, he had a current GreySheet that said his price was solid at 50% above my offer. He wouldn't show me his guide (I walked away). What say you? Is the GreySheet (CDN Publishing) a good guide?
Eh, I would've walked too. Sounds like he was just trying to screw you out of some extra $$. From what I know, grey sheet is only good for those who are selling.
There was a time when certain or select infrequently traded material would reasonably sell well above (and sometimes at multiples) of CDN, but I simply do not have the experience with it under the new ownership to say one way or the other. However, instead of worrying about and/or focusing on what ANY guide says, perhaps try comparing to real-world sales. Then ask yourself what the (or any) coin is worth to you.
I did walk away from these deals. I never said that I was worried about anything. I was asking about your opinion of the GreySheet? I am saying if the dude was honest, the GreySheet should be ignored. It's not like I have not explored their website.
The GreySheet is intended to be a dealer-to-dealer price guide and their CPG (http://coinprices.com/) is designed to be a dealer-to-customer guide (i.e. retail). Before it was sold, prices on the GreySheet rarely moved down. And it was widely available. So the market had largely moved to N% back of GreySheet as the sale price at shows for commonly traded items and ignored for thinly traded items. The new owners have definite plans for the GreySheet and how they expect it to be used - they've been open about this in blog posts etc. Many dealers have been unhappy with the changes in the GreySheet, especially for thinly traded items which are (still) in the process of being adjusted to reality from their previous levels. Dealers see this as a haircut. Also, since they still sell the GreySheet to any one who wants to buy it, it used by some customers as a bit of a whip... GreySheet is $90 and CPG is $110, I'm not some shrub off the street, I'm not going to pay no $110. Me? I use the on-line and printed CPG (they're still giving it away at coin shows by the 100s trying to get people to subscribe at $30/year). But I also lust after thinly traded 3CS in XF and I know the GreySheet and CPG are baloney prices anyway.
Of all printed price guides available, Grey Sheet pricing is most current and most accurate. With that said, I am not fond of the Grey Sheet because of the format changes made this year. Mr. Fiegenbaum and company raised their prices very substantially, and have been struggling to try and justify that increase . . . note: Grey Sheet is not $90 per year anymore . . . try $249 in print and $199 on-line. Not only should you not be surprised at Grey Sheet being higher than your annually published guide for some coins . . . you should expect it. You should also expect that some values will be substantially lower. That is because Grey Sheet is updated frequently to reflect market changes as soon as possible, while annuals remain erroneous for longer until the next issue emerges. As for older gold in particular, that is a market which often goes overlooked for lengthy periods, and can adjust pretty radically once the market realizes things are out of whack. That may be exactly what you are witnessing. Personally, I supplement Grey Sheet values with the perusal of auction results and the auctioned coins themselves in order to gain an understanding of where the market is really at.
And was honestly addressed in the portion of my post you edited out when responding. Please understand that while you may have started the thread, others will likely read it, so everything posted wasn't necessarily tailored to you or the questions asked.
I asked this same question last week. Let me share a short history of my experiences since starting about a year ago. My dad was stacking silver, which is boring, so I suggested that for about the same prices you could get worn Peace Dollars and have something with a bit of history behind it. After he bought a few I decided to jump into the hobby and now we're both collecting Peace Dollars. My first purchase was at a coin show in Ohio where I bought a very shiny Peace Dollar for $30.00. I'd done a little research into the hobby and I was convinced I was walking away with a 'steal'. Poor old dealer, well into his dotage, was giving away GEM/BU coins for nuthin'. I spent $100.00 with him. At the time my father and I were convinced that getting Peace Dollars for $19 was a good deal (the local coin shop sells them for $22) - and getting these GEM/BU dollars was like minting money. Clearly, these dealers are stupid and desperate. Then reality hit: Almost all of our submissions to ANACS came back as cleaned and my beautiful GEM/BU had been polished. I'd paid at least TWICE what the coin was worth. Further research into the hobby had us excited about getting Peace Dollars for $18.00, additional digging around and $17.00 was the new norm - learning to use eBay to snipe deals dropped us into the $16.50 range. Last week I set a record for us with a purchase of 10 Peace Dollars for $16.00 each only to beat that record with a purchase of $15.21 - which upset my dad who went out and sweet talked a dealer into $15.00 each, which is cheating, but whatever. The point is this: Over the course of a year we went from paying $30.00 for a $12.00 coin to paying $15.00 for a $12.00 coin (the dealers do have to make some money). None of this had anything to do with a price guide - based on my limited experience with Peace Dollars I wouldn't give you what any price guide I've seen has listed. That is to say, in the course of at year I went from paying 2X the price guide to paying less than the price guide - but you kind of have to work for it and I'm still terribly new.
The Coin Dealer Newsletter is truly a pricing guide. When I go to a show,, I expect to be able to buy coins that are somewhat out of favor at prices under Greysheet. I expect to pay Greysheet price for others. And I will pay over Greysheet for certain other coins. Its the nature of the coin market. Remember, the Greysheets used to be published weekly, monthly and quarterly and are now all published once a month. Certified Coin Exchange (CCE) is an online real time buying and selling exchange. Most dealers look to CCE as another indication of current prices. But the sight-unseen prices on CCE are often lower than prices at which you can buy these same coins at a coin show. That is because these are sight-unseen prices and the buyers will generally take any certified coins at those price levels. Even ugly but graded coins. But CCE also gives you access to recent auction prices as well. The simple fact is there is no single source from which you can derive a definitive price at all times on all coins. This isn't the New York Stock Exchange. Coins sell at various prices because different circumstances by dealers. If you have too many of the same thing (common date Morgans in MS63 for example), you sell yours cheaper. If they are hard to find, you try to get a little more because its hard to replace them. Coin Dealer Newsletter is a Pricing GUIDE - the operative word is guide. It does a good job of reflecting the market at the time at which the prices were gathered. But the market moves everyday. To compare a Whitman Price Guide with CDN is comparing apples and oranges. One is published a year ago, the other is a weekly or monthly price. The market is NOT static. It moves constantly. The best guide to pricing any coin is to go to a coin show and compare prices from several dealers. Then you will know whether the price guides are too high or tooo low. Thanks.
UPDATE: My father read this thread and took exception to response #9 where I wrote: "...which upset my dad who went out and sweet talked a dealer into $15.00 each, which is cheating, but whatever." Dad, if you're reading this I want you to know I cleaned up the description, dialing it back to 'cheating' because they're very particular about the language here.
Hmm... let's see now. You read it, didn't you? This considered, is it really that hard to understand the point?
I agree: Rule #1 is never to sell or buy from a stranger at a Coin Shop (they have no competition). Rule #2 is to make the rounds of every dealer at a coin show. Local shows have 20+ dealers and national shows may have 50-70 dealers. The competition is being among several other dealers which is a really good thing. Rule 2a: I usually say that the guy over there (while pointing) has the same coin for $20 less (being honest). Rule 2b: Do Not Offend him with a low-ball offer. Be fair. Rule 3c: You can talk with the guy a bit (unless he has a dozen other guys around). When you find a nice honest guy, you should support him. IMO today, the Greysheet is slanted to higher values that the dealers support. You can find a better deal. It's fun to find a fair deal.
