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<p>[QUOTE="physics-fan3.14, post: 2963455, member: 19165"]You can make a lot of arguments about specific market segments, and we can disagree about the exact dates of when the bull and bear markets started. </p><p><br /></p><p>However, even when the overall coin market is going in one general direction, various segments might be doing different things (Proof Franklins are hot one month, MS Trimes are hot sometime later, Early Gold is hot some other time). One or two market segments don't prove the status of the overall market. </p><p><br /></p><p>I'm making the generalization that a decade ago, most would agree we were in a bull market. During the bull market, grades loosened. </p><p><br /></p><p>Somewhere since then, we were in a bear market. During the bear market, grades tightened. (This has traditionally been how grades go - if you think of TPG's not as "graders" in an absolute sense, but as "valuers" in a relative sense, this is easier to understand). </p><p><br /></p><p>This isn't an overnight process, and it takes collectors a while to realize it. FUN last week might have been a great show, and might have shown signs of life in the market (and a turnaround, if you're solidly in the bull camp). </p><p><br /></p><p>It will take some time for that to percolate into the TPG grading. For now, many collectors recognize that things have tightened over the past couple of years. </p><p><br /></p><p>These things have no hard science or concrete data, they are more like feelings and educated guesses based on evaluation of collector feelings, auction results, and market reports. I can't say anything with certainty, I can only report on my interpretations of what it seems like people are saying.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="physics-fan3.14, post: 2963455, member: 19165"]You can make a lot of arguments about specific market segments, and we can disagree about the exact dates of when the bull and bear markets started. However, even when the overall coin market is going in one general direction, various segments might be doing different things (Proof Franklins are hot one month, MS Trimes are hot sometime later, Early Gold is hot some other time). One or two market segments don't prove the status of the overall market. I'm making the generalization that a decade ago, most would agree we were in a bull market. During the bull market, grades loosened. Somewhere since then, we were in a bear market. During the bear market, grades tightened. (This has traditionally been how grades go - if you think of TPG's not as "graders" in an absolute sense, but as "valuers" in a relative sense, this is easier to understand). This isn't an overnight process, and it takes collectors a while to realize it. FUN last week might have been a great show, and might have shown signs of life in the market (and a turnaround, if you're solidly in the bull camp). It will take some time for that to percolate into the TPG grading. For now, many collectors recognize that things have tightened over the past couple of years. These things have no hard science or concrete data, they are more like feelings and educated guesses based on evaluation of collector feelings, auction results, and market reports. I can't say anything with certainty, I can only report on my interpretations of what it seems like people are saying.[/QUOTE]
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