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<p>[QUOTE="ddddd, post: 2963427, member: 22377"]I think you make a fair point. </p><p><br /></p><p>However, I would argue that the coin market was not upwards in the past several years unless you make the cutoff around 2011 (when gold peaked); or 2008 (before the financial crash); or are talking about high end coins. For "generic" material that many collect, the prices have been going down over the past several years. MS 65 Morgans have been declining. Proof Franklins (including cameo graded pieces) have been selling for similar or lower prices than 3-4 years ago. Even some of the nice toners in the $500-$1,000 range have seen lower prices compared to what I saw on Heritage in 2004-2008. I could also mention Classic Commemoratives and modern US Mint products, but those have mostly always been on a decline.</p><p><br /></p><p>I read multiple dealer reports from the 2018 FUN show saying they were able to sell more for higher prices this year compared to last year (not all said this, but there were quite a few). I also have noticed that the toners that were selling for lower prices in 2016 (compared to 2004-2011) have started selling for more in 2017-2018. That makes me wonder if it isn't the reverse: the coin market was declining from 2011-early/mid 2017 and is now increasing. </p><p><br /></p><p>That makes me think that it's also the opposite with grading: the TPGs were being loose, hoping they would get more submissions and prices would continue to increase. However, when too many coins started showing up in seemingly overgraded holders (or questionable toners in straight holders), the market reacted by lowering its valuation of those coins (on average). The TPGs finally saw this and decided to tighten the standards to retain trust in their grading. Recent submitters, having become used to lenient grading, are now disappointed in the lower grading. (By the way, I see this tighter grading period as a potentially wise move by TPGs...when the market share of conservatively graded coins increases, TPGs will start loosening standards again and bring in the crackout revenue).[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="ddddd, post: 2963427, member: 22377"]I think you make a fair point. However, I would argue that the coin market was not upwards in the past several years unless you make the cutoff around 2011 (when gold peaked); or 2008 (before the financial crash); or are talking about high end coins. For "generic" material that many collect, the prices have been going down over the past several years. MS 65 Morgans have been declining. Proof Franklins (including cameo graded pieces) have been selling for similar or lower prices than 3-4 years ago. Even some of the nice toners in the $500-$1,000 range have seen lower prices compared to what I saw on Heritage in 2004-2008. I could also mention Classic Commemoratives and modern US Mint products, but those have mostly always been on a decline. I read multiple dealer reports from the 2018 FUN show saying they were able to sell more for higher prices this year compared to last year (not all said this, but there were quite a few). I also have noticed that the toners that were selling for lower prices in 2016 (compared to 2004-2011) have started selling for more in 2017-2018. That makes me wonder if it isn't the reverse: the coin market was declining from 2011-early/mid 2017 and is now increasing. That makes me think that it's also the opposite with grading: the TPGs were being loose, hoping they would get more submissions and prices would continue to increase. However, when too many coins started showing up in seemingly overgraded holders (or questionable toners in straight holders), the market reacted by lowering its valuation of those coins (on average). The TPGs finally saw this and decided to tighten the standards to retain trust in their grading. Recent submitters, having become used to lenient grading, are now disappointed in the lower grading. (By the way, I see this tighter grading period as a potentially wise move by TPGs...when the market share of conservatively graded coins increases, TPGs will start loosening standards again and bring in the crackout revenue).[/QUOTE]
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