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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;calcol, post: 3882756, member: 77639&quot;]I think gradeflation by TPGs over the decades is real in the sense that for many series, the percentage of coins in higher grades has increased.&nbsp; And the grade increase for many individual coins has been documented.&nbsp; However, I think most of this is due to what I call grade ratcheting rather than a loosening of standards by TPGs.&nbsp; Grade ratcheting is a statistical effect due to the inherent subjectivity in grading and the submission policies of the TPGs.</p><p><br /></p><p>If you graded several hundred coins per day of various series in varying condition and did it again the next day with the same coins, do you think the grades would be identical?&nbsp; If yes, read no further.&nbsp; The variation in grading a particular coin attributable to one grader can be lessened by having 2 or 3 graders and averaging the results or having them reach a consensus.&nbsp; However, variation will still be there, just lower.</p><p><br /></p><p>OK.&nbsp; Grading has subjective elements and can never be absolutely consistent when done by people.&nbsp; So, how do the submission policies of the TPGs come into it?&nbsp;&nbsp; It&#039;s the policies that allow a coin to receive a higher grade with no risk of downgrading.&nbsp; For example, PCGS allows already graded&nbsp; coins to be resubmitted either for reconsideration (coin seen in holder by graders) or regrading (coin seen out of holder by graders) with no risk of downgrading.&nbsp; There is a similar opportunity with crossovers.&nbsp; NGC has similar submission policies.</p><p><br /></p><p>So, what a coin collector or dealer has to decide for a particular coin is whether the cost of resubmission (or crossing) is worth the chance that it will go up in grade.&nbsp; In many cases, going up in grade can substantially increase the value of the coin.&nbsp; So the owner submits, may hit it lucky on the variation in grading, and one more coin goes into a higher grade and out of a lower grade in the pop report.&nbsp; And this could happen if standards never changed.</p><p><br /></p><p>A similar effect occurs with crack-outs, it just may take more resubmissions to get to a higher grade because the grade may go down in one or more passes through the graders&#039; hands.&nbsp; And yes, it&#039;s possible that coin might never make it back to its original grade.&nbsp; That&#039;s always a risk with crack-outs.</p><p><br /></p><p>So, if a coin has been resubmitted and goes up in grade, can the process be repeated until the coin gets a 70?&nbsp; Not unless it started near there in its first grading.&nbsp; Getting a second upgrade will be more difficult than the first, and third even less likely to occur.&nbsp; If a coin is upgraded progressively, eventually, it will be so far from the standard for the next higher grade that its chance of getting it are effectively zero.&nbsp; Eventually many, maybe most, older coins will be so far off the standard for the next higher grade that &quot;gradeflation&quot; will lessen.&nbsp; It won&#039;t go away because new coins will be minted and graded, and older never-graded-before coins will find their way into their first slab.&nbsp; Many of these will be resubmitted, and some will get higher grades.</p><p><br /></p><p>So have grading standards loosened over the years?&nbsp;&nbsp; One would have to have a large collection of various types in varying conditions and know the grades they received years ago.&nbsp; Then they would have to be cracked-out and submitted today and the results compared.&nbsp; Comparing only a single or a few coins would be meaningless due to grading variation.</p><p><br /></p><p>So, do I think grading standards have loosened over the years?&nbsp; Well, I have this feeling that maybe they have, but can&#039;t prove it.&nbsp; Grade ratcheting&nbsp; insured that many coins would&nbsp; go up in grade&nbsp; (and they have!) even with no change in grading standards.</p><p><br /></p><p>Cal[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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