Graded World Notes - Selling Price vs Krause CV

Discussion in 'Paper Money' started by Player11, Sep 11, 2019.

  1. Player11

    Player11 Bullish

    How well have you done on these?

    If you were to develop a pricing matrix for world graded say PMG notes Grades 63 to 67 vs Krause CV (Raw Unc) what would be your inputs?

    Example: 63 1.00, 64 1.25 (times raw CV), 65 1.50, 66 2.00, 67 3.00

    How would notes with single digit pops impact your pricing matrix?
     
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  3. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    Wow, that is a unanswerable question. How many are in existence at each of those grades? If there are a ton of 64's, but only 1 or 2 65s I would wager the price of the 65 would be very different than if a 65 were actually more common than a 64. Know what I mean? Every note, unfortunately, has unique facts concerning its availability, demand, etc that will influence this.
     
    HaleiwaHI likes this.
  4. mpcusa

    mpcusa "Official C.T. TROLL SWEEPER"

    Simple principle to apply here, is the law of supply and demand, i deal only
    In graded notes, with a specialty in MPC, also you can throw out any pricing
    Index system and just simplify things, the higher the grade and the scarcity
    will always dictate price.
     
    HaleiwaHI likes this.
  5. lettow

    lettow Senior Member

    The pricing in the Pick book is hit and miss (mostly miss) with many notes and even entire countries. It should be used for relative scarcity and not for pricing.
     
  6. mpcusa

    mpcusa "Official C.T. TROLL SWEEPER"

    To further hit the point home, price guides are just that, guides and must
    be used with a bit of common sense, if your relying on them 100 % of the
    time to give you accurate information, all i can say is good luck ! to you
    and your wallet, also you need to take in to account the age of the information
    Your looking at, there are very few currency publications that update in
    A timely manner.
     
  7. hotwheelsearl

    hotwheelsearl Cheap edited

    I have a 1904 Germany 5 mark that is considered $25 in UNC.

    I think I bought it for $7 or so...
     
  8. CaptainMK

    CaptainMK Active Member

    IMO,

    Its all about supply and demand. BUT also target audience (aka buyers).
    I have seen the weirdest things sell when I thought they would never sell. You just never know about some buyers as everyone is looking for their own personal taste in something.

    To give you a somewhat answer, single digit pops "usually" add value. With that comes condition and rarity of the note. All these things, molded together with the right buyer, anything can be sold at any price.
     
  9. lettow

    lettow Senior Member

    Germany is one of the best examples of pricing problems in Pick.
     
    hotwheelsearl likes this.
  10. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    All price guides are problems. Everyone with real knowledge can point out where price guides are wrong, sometimes massively so. They are simple guides. If it shows $3 I know its horribly common, $25 fairly common and obtainable, $200 maybe a better item. It is simply to put you in the ballpark, and sometimes it even misses the ballparks. Even worst, then hoards come onto the market and blow it all up anyway.
     
    CaptainMK likes this.
  11. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    I think for MOST bills, you are in the general ballpark. The relationship as you go up higher in quality certainly increases at a parabolic rate. Whether the price is 3x for a 67 depends on the specific bill or coin. Could be less @ 67 but more than 1.5x at 65.

    The main factor as some have noted: how big a dropoff is the population as you go from 63 to 64 to 65 (and here's where it usually shows a big jump)......66...67...68.

    Also it will depend on how big the market is. Are we talking obscure 19th century bills where we have a limited number of buyers....or 1907 HR Saints where you have dozens or hundreds of online buyers at Stacks, HA, and Ebay ? Liquidity is key....there are more buyers of 20th U.S. currency and coins than there are obscure foreign notes or pre-20th century U.S. currency.

    We also have to ask if we are quoting Bid or Ask prices...is it a price to SELL or a price to BUY. I find the price closer if it's the price I want to sell one. If I want to buy, even with your multipliers, I can generally add 20%. And that's not taking into account auction premiums, S&H, sales tax, etc.
     
  12. HaleiwaHI

    HaleiwaHI Active Member

    Quantity of each note is very interesting. But unique as each note may be, I have never seen a '63 valued more than a '64.
     
  13. Player11

    Player11 Bullish

    I am planning do some more research on some of the major graded world banknote sellers and see how they match my matrix.
     
  14. mpcusa

    mpcusa "Official C.T. TROLL SWEEPER"

    a 63 is not desirable, so that formula wouldnt apply, however i have seen many
    64,s that i would take over a 65, each grading point has its own quirks, the 65
    grade is known for uneven boarders where as 64,s have more subtle issues such
    as corner bumps, which in some cases makes it a more desirable note that i would
    Be willing to pay more for.
     
    GoldFinger1969 likes this.
  15. James Shields

    James Shields Member

    Do you have any examples of 64’s you could show us ?
     
  16. mpcusa

    mpcusa "Official C.T. TROLL SWEEPER"

    sure, heres an example:


    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  17. mpcusa

    mpcusa "Official C.T. TROLL SWEEPER"

    If you can see its a nice solid note, i will also show a 63
     
  18. mpcusa

    mpcusa "Official C.T. TROLL SWEEPER"

  19. mpcusa

    mpcusa "Official C.T. TROLL SWEEPER"

    The 63 is very dingy and the margins are way off to the right on the front side
    Also no PPQ on this note, i had got this note with a bunch of others but i would
    Never buy a 63 out right just not vary attractive, i am very high on A/U notes
    Here,s a good situation where you get more bang for your buck !

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  20. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Elaborate..are you saying it's better bang-for-your-buck to buy the "best" of the AU (58) then the "worst" of the MS's (low-60's, most people use 60/61/62 but you cite 63) ?
     
  21. lettow

    lettow Senior Member

    What he is saying is that a 58 with a slight bend can have better eye appeal than a 63 with bad centering but cost less.
     
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