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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;d_lairson, post: 267241, member: 8441&quot;]I don&#039;t know if I quite agree with this. I don&#039;t know if you are saying that the slabbed coin market will never slow down, or keep increasing. I don&#039;t know if I can think of one market that has never crashed, or at least gone down significantly at some point. I mean that it&#039;s possible, although not very likely, that some segments of the market might keep increasing, like ultra-rare coins or keys. </p><p><br /></p><p>On one side it is a question of supply and demand. Some key coins at high grades, with populations of only 1 - 5, are in great demand, with very limited supply, but the supply could easily double in no time. Take as a really bad example the cheerios millennium cent (I&#039;ve been looking into this one a lot recently). According to NGC the graded population is like 64 coins, out of a possible 10,000 coins. In the past 30 days on eBay there have been at least 30 auctions for raw coins. This is half the graded population. Raw coins are going for $5-$10 each, graded $40-$60 dollars. If I had the time, inclination and the money, I could easily buy all these coins myself submit them for grading and double the population. What would this do to the price of the coin? You might say that this is a common coin and it couldn&#039;t happen to every coin. Really? Look at the 1933 Double Eagle. This is probably one of the most rare coins ever in US numismatics. That population went from 1 known example to 11 overnight.&nbsp; When there was only one coin it sold for 6.6 million, don&#039;t think that if the other 10 ever make it to market that all 10 will sell for the same price. I&#039;m sure the price for the rest will be substantially less. There are stories of people still holding bags of MS Morgan’s in rare dates. Morgan’s are coins that people love to slab. What would happen if a population of Morgan’s went up by 1000? </p><p><br /></p><p>The other side of this is demand. People will say that there will always be a demand for graded coins, so the market should be somewhat stable. Look at the housing market in the US. There will always be a demand for houses in the US. Even if you discount the recent bubble in the market, the demand, and as a result the value of houses, had gone down. This will happen to graded coins. To think differently would be to suffer from tulip mania. Right now there is strong demand for graded coins, maybe enough demand to absorb the sudden increase in the population of 1933 Double Eagles (I know, if they ever make it to the market, right) but is it strong enough to absorb a sudden influx of 1000 Morgan’s in a key, graded date? Or even 100 Morgan’s? </p><p><br /></p><p>The market is strong right now, it has been growing for 20 years. I&#039;m sure, if you really looked at the data, there have been some ups and downs in the graded coin market already. Is there going to be a crash? If something really drastic happened to the economy, then yes there might be a crash. But given the absence of a bubble in the market, and I don&#039;t think there is a bubble yet, we might be at the beginning of a bubble but we are not there yet, I do not think there will be a crash. It would be irresponsible to say that the market will never go down, It will go down, I guarantee it. but when and how much? That&#039;s the question.</p><p><br /></p><p>Of course, as with any market you can say with 100% certainty that the market will go up... or down... the real question is when.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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