Grade Distribution for Modern Coins

If the mint produces 100 coins intended for collectors (proof, unc, etc), approximately what percent will be 70s? 69s? lower? Does anyone have any clue, anecdotal or otherwise?

 

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One option available to you would be to check the census figures from NGC and PCGS. I'm not sure about ANACS and/or ICG.

Chris

 

Thought of that, but that reflects "survivor bias", so to speak. ie, the good pieces will be disproportionately send in for grading.

 

I assume by "survivor bias" you mean for bulk submissions where some coins are returned ungraded. Is that correct?

Chris

 

Well, that too.

But also, the coins the TPG's receive will tend to be the better ones. The coins with glaring errors are less likely to be submitted, unless guys are submitting unopened boxes.

 

You can bet hard money that most of the proofs are going to grade out at '69/70 with a pittance of '68/67's. They're just that good at making the product now.

 

Now you're confusing me. Are you suggesting that we should include coins that have flaws or are less than perfect? If you are trying to find grade statistics, why include anything that shouldn't be submitted in the first place?

Chris

 

Cheers, Chris.......

 

I don't think he's looking for grading statistics so much as he'd like opinions on what grading distribution you'd expect if you sent in, say, 10000 randomly selected proof silver Eagles. Like would you get 300 PF70s, 500 PF69s, 100 PF68s, etc.

 

If I were sending in a 100 coins, first I'd check the price guide for what grades are going for . Then I would add the cost to grade those 100 coins . Then I would cry at the return when I sold them ...

 

If the mint is that good at making these coins when/will they up the grading as in MS 71,72,73,etc. going to happen?

 

The most likely stat is 4% grade 70, 26% grade 69, if this helps you out.

 

It does not matter if these modern coins grade PR/MS69,70 or 99, b/c only the "public fools" pay a premium for these modern day crap ...No dealer on earth would touch these coins with a 10' pole.

 

That's why they're more fun to collect. No money to be had..........

 

I confess to not understanding why folks grade modern coins in the first place, but these stats make it seem downright loony. I get that 70s are worth A LOT more, but if you're paying $20+ per coin for only a 4% chance of the big payoff, your chances of coming out ahead are very slim. Even worse, if you get hit with a 68, you LOSE money vs. having your coins in OGP. Someone help me out here.

 

Long term collectors like me like some coins in slabs. Rarely I go for 70 anything, but when I do, I do it for special reasons. Most of my coins are raw. If I want a slabbed coin but don't care about grade, i'll try to find the best price for the grade I am looking for. This strictly goes for modern coins.

 

I go for the coin whether it is slabbed or not. The slabbing is not a concern for me. It is the coin only. If I like the coin I will buy it it, slabbed or not. I have not even considered the percentage of 69/70's. I have some coins I think would grade at a 70 but why would I want to do it? Just my $.02

 

I agree, but there is a market for modern, common U.S. coins in slabs, just like there is/was a market for Beanie babies, pigs feet, weed etc. You get the point. Ha, ha!