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<p>[QUOTE="IdesOfMarch01, post: 4002912, member: 39084"]This issue is far more complex statistically and mathematically than can be resolved here. The complexity is exacerbated by the lack of comparability of different ancient coins of the same type. For example consider the two Hadrian aurei below:</p><p><br /></p><p>[ATTACH=full]1053848[/ATTACH] </p><p><br /></p><p>(Sold at auction for $42K in 2005.)</p><p><br /></p><p>[ATTACH=full]1053849[/ATTACH] </p><p><br /></p><p>(Sold at auction in 2018 for $170K.)</p><p><br /></p><p>Did prices for EF coins of this type quadruple in 13 years? Or is the bottom coin simply the finest of its type and thus commands a premium? What would the top coin sell for today at auction, especially if potentially interested parties already had a satisfactory coin of this type?</p><p><br /></p><p>I won all three of the coins on which I bid (Hadrian travel aurei) for well under my maximum bids at Triton XXIII. This makes me a little nervous, even accounting for the fact that the aurei were not in EF condition. Maybe the stratospheric prices for best-of-type Hadrian travel aurei are lowering prices on aurei in VF / Good VF condition? Or maybe there's a current interest in best-of-type Hadrian travel series aurei.</p><p><br /></p><p>Ancient coins are not fungible commodities, which modern coins are (to some extent -- this assertion is arguable). My personal observation and belief is that the best-of-type and almost-best-of-type ancient coins have, as a group, increased significantly more than inflation. As for those ancient coins that are not best-of-type, in the 12 years I've been collecting ancient coins my unscientific observation is that they have indeed gotten more expensive, even accounting for inflation, but that observation may just apply to the category of coins that I collect.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="IdesOfMarch01, post: 4002912, member: 39084"]This issue is far more complex statistically and mathematically than can be resolved here. The complexity is exacerbated by the lack of comparability of different ancient coins of the same type. For example consider the two Hadrian aurei below: [ATTACH=full]1053848[/ATTACH] (Sold at auction for $42K in 2005.) [ATTACH=full]1053849[/ATTACH] (Sold at auction in 2018 for $170K.) Did prices for EF coins of this type quadruple in 13 years? Or is the bottom coin simply the finest of its type and thus commands a premium? What would the top coin sell for today at auction, especially if potentially interested parties already had a satisfactory coin of this type? I won all three of the coins on which I bid (Hadrian travel aurei) for well under my maximum bids at Triton XXIII. This makes me a little nervous, even accounting for the fact that the aurei were not in EF condition. Maybe the stratospheric prices for best-of-type Hadrian travel aurei are lowering prices on aurei in VF / Good VF condition? Or maybe there's a current interest in best-of-type Hadrian travel series aurei. Ancient coins are not fungible commodities, which modern coins are (to some extent -- this assertion is arguable). My personal observation and belief is that the best-of-type and almost-best-of-type ancient coins have, as a group, increased significantly more than inflation. As for those ancient coins that are not best-of-type, in the 12 years I've been collecting ancient coins my unscientific observation is that they have indeed gotten more expensive, even accounting for inflation, but that observation may just apply to the category of coins that I collect.[/QUOTE]
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