Got skunked Triton XXII!

Is the hammer price adjusted for inflation? According to my research, U.S. inflation has been around 13% since the beginning of 2012.

Also, what about fluctuation in exchange rates? Is there any chance that affects trends?

Finally, is the variance in the hammer prices so large that it renders any trends murky at best?

 

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Admittedly, there is a trend towards a decrease in value, however, please note that the number of coins in total is relatively small (n=318), as illustrated by the degree of uncertainty around the red line (the pinkish area. For those interested: the smoothed curve is a LOESS curve). It is difficult to statistically test this (this would include time-varying trends) - a more simple approach might be to compare averages of, say 2014 vs. 2018.

I agree: this would be a very good indicator. In essence, this could be compared to a 'case cross-over" study design: the very same subject is 'exposed' to the market, and yields a certain price. The benefit is, that all variables of the coin (grade, rarity, etc.) could be considered unchanged. The change in market price could thus be measured more clearly.
It is however largely impossible to do this automatically.

It is not, and this is a very good suggestion. I have just looked at inflation rates, but as someone with a limited understanding of inflation rates, I found it difficult to include this in my database. Preferably, I would need a datasheet with dates and inflation rates, so I could link historical prices to their inflation rates, and thus calculate a current estimated price. Any tips are welcome

I believe SixBid includes this in their currency conversion.

Yes and no. Variance per se is not a problem if the data sample is sufficient enough. Suppose you want to model a prediction model (e.g. to predict a hammer price for a coin of your interest), variance is even a good thing (as it allows a model to differentiate better).