Gold Kennedys not so hot on Ebay

To mint beyond the widely publicized 50k, “To ensure fair and equitable distribution of the 2014 50th Anniversary Kennedy Half-Dollar Gold Proof Coin, the product will be sold based on consumer demand.” will require further amending legislation. I bet this ends up like the 2013 AGB RP coin, with 50,000 being sufficient for demand.

 

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Where did you get this "official" number ? I'm not trying to be funny , I'd really like to know .

 

Every credible reporting source that has written about this coins release over the past 4-5 months has repeatedly said 50,000 units. The Mint saying 40,000 ready for day of release. As that day neared speculators with dollar signs in mind seem to be fretting about how much money they can greedily bank on these and desperately read into the Mint's vague comments that it means more than 50k may be minted. Of course, such demand could always be exploited by the Mint marketing arm who has been known to later release other products containing coins originally thought by customers to be limited to an initial format, such as collector ASE coins that later appeared in a coin and currency set to the grief of many collectors.

 

It's in any number of Mint News Blog, Coin Update and other sources that have written about this. Seems only in the recent days people are worried they can't rely on the figure to make money off flipping the coin rather than just buying it to collect it.

 

Here's the mint's word on the subject: "An initial inventory of 40,000 coins will be available for sale on August 5 through various sales channels. The United States Mint will evaluate sales activity during the first week and make adjustments to its production schedule accordingly."

Based on that wording, the mint could come out next week and say they sold the 40,000 and we're done...don't think that's gonna happen.

And here's the link if you want to check it for yourself (check the "Program" tab): http://catalog.usmint.gov/webapp/wc...ory_rn=&_ga=1.222344603.1655120456.1405124270

 

Nah!

An "idiot", wins a PCGS 2008-W First Strike MS69 Buffalo and then sells it for $1395 a week or so after he won it only to realize that his BIN price was about $500 shy of what the coin was really worth at the time. Today, that BIN price is about $2000 shy of value.

Now that was an idiotic thing to do!

 

40k... 50k... or more. None of these are small mintages to worry there isn't enough supply out there. I think a lot of people are worried about their profit potential and coming up with all sorts of anxiety ridden reasons to doubt their actions, when, unfortunately, collecting the coins has instead taken the back seat in terms of priority.

Many people criticize "the Mint" but a lot of blame should be going to out whomever is tasked with marketing and putting forth vague language that creates this drama and uncertainty. Norms for coin releases have always been upheld by predetermined mintage limits or more clearly stated, no mintage limits. There is no clarity with two camps of thought, despite what is shown on the Mint's program page, and paired with vague statements posted on the Mint's use of social media sites saying, “To ensure fair and equitable distribution of the 2014 50th Anniversary Kennedy Half-Dollar Gold Proof Coin, the product will be sold based on consumer demand.” while other blogs and publications have earnestly tried and been allowed by the Mint to go with the suggested 50k figure when informing the collecting (consuming) public.

If anyone is unhappy with the results, there's another way to assert 'demand' and that's to cancel your order if you can do so, return the product in the 7-day alloted time frame, and lastly to express consumer disatisfaction by demanding the Mint take back the product if they continue minting well beyond the 7-day return window on your order closes.

It seems entirely possible, given the rhetoric from the Mint and past performance, that they could easily produce more than the suggested 50k at this time, and later issue those additional coins in some sort of different packaging to the consternation of those trying to determine value based on mintage at this time. By producing 40,000 now they may easily meet the demand as recently seen swarmed the 2014 BB HoF gold coins and allow the bullion market value of gold to rise so that coins produced later can sell for more, if PoG increases. No matter the scenario, the Mint and the third parties hocking these coins always profit first from any of these releases, and control marketing announcements to ensure they always maintain that potential.

 

I've read all the Coin News Updates and other articles, and nowhere have I read 50k. Since the current US Mint product page says no product limit and the current shipping date is 9/25, I'd say they've sold well over the 40k initially available and maybe well over 50k. We need a link so we can read it ourselves. Absent a link, I think you may be quoting what some have speculated the final mintage will be.

 

I'll see what I can find in Mint News blog and/or Coin Update, as those were both repeating the suggested 50k figure for some time, perhaps up to early July when the Coin Week article suggested problems in mint-to-demand of this piece.

 

I may have read some early speculation on mintage limits, but that was before the mint officially said, "No limit". I'll tell you, people are rushing to buy these like they are limited. Granted the rush to buy may be profitable, as some will pay anything to have one now/first or with a "Beanie Baby" label. But, with no limit, what does the future hold, since one should be able to buy these for awhile, maybe even for less if gold declines?

 

I've not seen any 50K numbers either but then I rely upon this forum in conjunction with CU and the NGC forums for links and information.

I would expect well over 50K and since these are being minted without specific congressional approval but along the guidelines of what the Secretary of the Treasury can and cannot do, I expect that mint to demand will be just that.

The real question is, Exactly What will the demand be?

Today's photo's of lines and what not are probably 25% real collectors with the balance being coin dealers who will, undoubtedly, swoop in for the quick killing and create a "demand" which is simply non-existent except for today.

I'd give it until December when initial orders and actual mintages get published before making any firm statements with regard to the coin.

For me, I'll be happy just to get my single order and just "hope" that the TPG's don't make it part of the "Complete Registry Set".

 

No matter what we see in photos of the coin show, we have been told that there are just some 2500 coins available at the show, plus(?) a stated 40k ready for sale on day of release. That is either 40,000 or 42,500 as of today. Earlier a number of 50k was suggested and was repeated in articles about the coin release, even if that is unconfirmed by the Mint and without any coin legislation to back that number up. The reality is that the Program page and the vague language and no coin legislation all conspire to allow more coins that we few collectors anticipate appearing in one or more forms of packaging and perhaps increase the limits to levels we initially thought the coin may be limited to. I will look back through posts on various coin reporting blogs to see where that 50k figure pops up and post a link when I can for you guys.

 

Dealer Bob Campbell of Salt Lake City, Utah, estimated that as many as three-quarters of the people in line had been bused in by dealers who had hired them for $100 or $200 apiece to make the purchases for them. - See more at: http://www.numismaticnews.net/artic...ld-kennedys-go-for-20000#sthash.tcddM0Fj.dpuf

 

I'm just going to laugh when the mint says the final mintage was 5,000,000

 

If these deep pockets dealers, who have paid shills to stand in line for them, take a nice loss on this coin...perhaps this insane trend will die the death that it deserves.

BTW, I'll be LMAO if the final mintage is greater than 150,000. 5,000,000 would be very cool indeed.

 

The hysteria alone is signal enough to take caution for those expecting dollar signs and easy profits. In recent years it has been trendy to remind people of today that tulips once sold for mad money in the 1600s and that bubbles and trends often crash in due time. The Mint won't be hurt by selling these already premium priced products but customers expecting the same returns a few times a year, year on year might well be.

 

Just got back from ANA (6 hour drive). Line was a nightmare. Got there at 5:30 and barely made the cut. I will post full details later, but tried buying up to 6 from hired individuals, who all signed contracts. I offered up to $500 over price of coin, and no one took it (their contracts paid about $170 first day coins, $250 for later days, since dealer had to pay early bird badge for them). I was planning on grading at show, but a dealer was offering $3,000 on the spot, so my Dad and I both took it (I got him to do $3,050.) It was insane... I also have some pictures I might add after a nap.. haha.

 

This is directly from the U. S. Mint website:
Mintage limit: see "Program"
Product limit: None

Program:
Commemorating the 50th anniversary of the Kennedy half-dollar, the United States Mint will offer its first-ever gold half-dollar.

It features the original 1964 obverse (heads) design created by United States Mint Chief Engraver Gilroy Roberts with a special 1964-2014 inscription.

An initial inventory of 40,000 coins will be available for sale on August 5 through various sales channels. The United States Mint will evaluate sales activity during the first week and make adjustments to its production schedule accordingly.

This is the page referred to above:
http://catalog.usmint.gov/webapp/wc...roductId=17610&langId=-1&parent_category_rn= 

There is no reference to a limit of 50,000 coins. Apparently there are many others who are poorly informed also.

 

I would imagine that NGC and PCGS would treat this issue in the Registry the same as they do for the: 1964 Accented Hair, 1979-S Type I & II, 1981-S Type I & II, 1998-S Mattie Finish and the 2005 – 2010 P & D regular strikes and satin finish strikes.

In other words, PCGS will treat it as a variety issue and NGC will treat it as regular issue.

 

Even though its a gold coin?