Gold Kennedys already below issue price

Discussion in 'Coin Chat' started by -jeffB, Sep 6, 2014.

  1. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    I just had a look at completed eBay auctions on gold Kennedy halves. I see 25-30 auctions that closed below the original $1240 issue price, including shipping. Of course, some are still going higher.

    There's one seller here in NC who listed five PCGS PF69 DCam First Strikes. One went for $1203; the other four all went for less than $1150.

    It looks like 69s are generally going for less than raw coins. I suppose people figure a raw coin still has a shot at being a 70; I guess they assume nobody would be buying coins, submitting the best ones, and reselling the rest raw.

    I still might buy one at some point, but seeing how the market is behaving right now, I figure it's good not to rush...
     
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  3. C-B-D

    C-B-D Well-Known Member

    I hope this slows the enthusiasm for the silver set and all future mint releases. By that I mean that the Chicago ANA scene doesn't repeat itself. I wonder if all those mega dealers were disappointed? I'm certain that they didn't make nearly as much as they had hoped...
     
  4. d.t.menace

    d.t.menace Member

    Being one that thought that these didn't have much of a future as a collectable with an upside, I'm not surprised. I am surprised they fell this rapidly.
    It'll be interesting to see, after sales are ended, where the prices go.
    If I wanted one I'd wait a while. They might end up being bullion. JMHO
     
    josh's coins likes this.
  5. Kirkuleez

    Kirkuleez 80 proof

    This is exactly what I was expecting for a coin that was so overhyped by the flippers. Especially once people realized that there was no mintage limit and that you can just order them from the mint. I feel the upcoming silver set has a much better upside, but also expect that the initial enthusiasm will die off pretty rapidly and the market will stabilize. So many examples of this have happened over the years, I wonder why people can't see it from a mile away.
     
  6. doug444

    doug444 STAMPS and POSTCARDS too!

    In 2002, I made the same mistake with 2002-P and 2002-D uncirculated Kennedy half dollars. Spent a lot of money up front, wasted a lot of time marketing, and in the end netted "maybe" $100 for all that work. The 2002 halves were among the first to be, as the Redbook cites, "not issued for circulation," and I thought the investors would snap them up.

    I found a few real gem pieces in the bags, but did not bother to slab any.

    The quantities (of 2002 uncirculateds) minted were far less than the 2000 and 2001 business strikes. The 2002 total was roughly 5.6 million altogether, whereas the totals for the two previous years were both over 40 million. Never again.
     
  7. rickmp

    rickmp Frequently flatulent.

    In the first week, these flew off the shelves. In the following three weeks the mint didn't sell 2,000 of them.
     
  8. Vegas Vic

    Vegas Vic Undermedicated psychiatric patient

  9. Aidan_()

    Aidan_() Numismatic Contributor

  10. Vegas Vic

    Vegas Vic Undermedicated psychiatric patient

    The hof are next. Raw are already down. This coin might have kept it's value but I think all the hype up front has sucked the value out.

    image.jpg
     
  11. keemao

    keemao Well-Known Member

    I am a little worried about the mint selling the silver set at the Baltimore show. They come out two days before the show and I can already see the TPGs doing another "special label" for the Baltimore show...early releases or something...and causing another mad rush of dealers to get as many as they can at the show. I sure hope by then the mint has a better plan in place. I wrote the director and told him what I thought and it will be interesting to see if he even replies.
     
  12. 19Lyds

    19Lyds Member of the United States of Confusion

    The online edition of Coin World today stated that the US Mint would NOT be selling these at the Baltimore Show but that they would have at least 150,000 sets ready for shipping on release day of October 28th.

    I have no idea on whether or not they'll be available at the US Mint Stores and I am very grateful that the US Mint finally listened to reason!

    No Four Coin Sets.jpg
     
    Last edited: Sep 7, 2014
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  13. green18

    green18 Unknown member Sweet on Commemorative Coins Supporter

    There ain't a dry eye in the house in some 'dealer' locations.........
     
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  14. keemao

    keemao Well-Known Member

    Ya, I saw that last night after I replied in here. That's fine with me. It's a good reason to stay home...my wife is getting tired of flying to coin shows....lol....and needs a break before we head to Thailand for 3 weeks.....so I can go to the big money auction a guy holds in Bangkok three times a year....lol!!!

    Now the big question is, what does the mint mean by "immediate shipping"? Two weeks before you get your coins? A month? And I guess it will be the new ordering site so we will see how that works out.
     
  15. Onofrio Bacigalupo

    Onofrio Bacigalupo Well-Known Member

    I bought my five, they are beautiful works of art and will remain in the mint issued packaging. I don't need my government issued coins broken out, "graded," and put in a slab. In a couple of years the coins will be worth $3,000.00 or more each.
     
  16. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    You may well be right. I decided I didn't like the speculative odds. By returning my five coins, I suppose I helped lower the total mintage for this issue, which improves your odds. You're welcome. :)
     
  17. Vegas Vic

    Vegas Vic Undermedicated psychiatric patient

    If only I could actually bet and be paid guaranteed money against your opinion. I really wish it was possible to short coins. I would be able to make a ton of money on put options against your opinion. If the market value of the coin is less then the current issue price and the coin is minted to demand why do you feel this price is going to go back up?
     
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  18. Onofrio Bacigalupo

    Onofrio Bacigalupo Well-Known Member

    This coin is a one of a kind mintage and well never be issued again. As time goes on and they are handed off from generation to generation, the coins will become so scarce that there value will go up. I know because I've been collecting since 1956.
     
  19. Vegas Vic

    Vegas Vic Undermedicated psychiatric patient

    I would hope any investment that is handed off generation to generation would do well. But while you have been collecting longer then I have lived, one thing you are missing is that mintages are not comparable with old ones. 65000 might sound low but each and every one of those coins will survive and grade at least 69.
     
  20. Onofrio Bacigalupo

    Onofrio Bacigalupo Well-Known Member

    You are missing the fact that as time goes on, the numismatic community increases and everyone will still regard anything about JFK as desirable to have. I remember his fateful trip to Dallas when he and Jacquie walked to greet the crowds at the airport. Someone actually stole a rose from her bouquet. It has to do with the Kennedy mystique. You are also missing the fact that 65,000 is a very small mintage for the United States when compared with smaller countries like Canada and Vatican City whose coins have increased in value just because they are one of a kind. Just look at the market for Pope John Paul mintages and for the 5 troy ounce Canadian issues.
     
  21. Vegas Vic

    Vegas Vic Undermedicated psychiatric patient

    We can agree to disagree. I don't think any coin minted to demand and already selling under market rate will recover. Personally what I think is the serious profits that those who bought the hof coins made (almost totally all gone now compared to where they started) caused everyone and their mother to think buying and flipping these gold Kennedys would make them bank. And now all these people who ordered the coin with no interest in being the end consumer have driven the mintage to demand way higher then actual demand. For fun I check completed eBay listings for both hof and gold Kennedys each day. They are book marked on my ipad so it takes me 2 seconds a day to follow their prices. Like I said, I just wish I could short put option your optimistic opinion. And I have posted this opinion august 8, day three of the issue.
     
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