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<p>[QUOTE="Cloudsweeper99, post: 78612, member: 3011"]You are correct that when you guess, your chance of being right is 50/50. When you "analyze" the odds get much better.</p><p><br /></p><p>If you check out the silver market, you will find that annual demand exceeds annual supply with the deficit made up out of [shrinking] inventories. Everyone who ever took Economics 101 knows how that will turn out.</p><p><br /></p><p>To think that coin collecting is a major factor in the price of silver is very "coincentric" thinking [to coin a phrase]. Maybe it was at one time when silver was used as money, but no longer. But it's natural to believe that your personal interest has an outsized impact on the world.</p><p><br /></p><p>You are correct that there is no such thing as a sure thing. But when you've been around long enough to see continuous dollar depreciation through inflation, forecasting future long term price moves becomes easier. I have no short term predictions for the price of silver. But I think I know the direction of the price over the next decade.</p><p><br /></p><p>Time will tell who is correct.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="Cloudsweeper99, post: 78612, member: 3011"]You are correct that when you guess, your chance of being right is 50/50. When you "analyze" the odds get much better. If you check out the silver market, you will find that annual demand exceeds annual supply with the deficit made up out of [shrinking] inventories. Everyone who ever took Economics 101 knows how that will turn out. To think that coin collecting is a major factor in the price of silver is very "coincentric" thinking [to coin a phrase]. Maybe it was at one time when silver was used as money, but no longer. But it's natural to believe that your personal interest has an outsized impact on the world. You are correct that there is no such thing as a sure thing. But when you've been around long enough to see continuous dollar depreciation through inflation, forecasting future long term price moves becomes easier. I have no short term predictions for the price of silver. But I think I know the direction of the price over the next decade. Time will tell who is correct.[/QUOTE]
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