Future price prediction for silver & gold

Amen...in fact I just sold some silver....I guess most would that was not smart!!

Speedy

 

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Here's a link for you Speedy. It is not an editorial but a market analysis by a reputable bullion company.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Puplava/feb052003.html
It explains not only the current deficit, but also another aspect which we haven't even brought up. That is the huge "Short position" in silver. Read on as they can explain this better than I.

 

Speedy,
Rick,

All I can say is check it out. Not believing the figures without checking is a mistake. I've noticed over the years that a lot of people make mistakes because they can't distinguish between fact and opinion, or believe they are of equal value. One place to start is www.silverinstitute.org. Click on the Supply and Demand button and study the figures. You will find that every year the consumption of silver exceeds the production plus scrap figures. And the difference is made up by government sales from their inventories plus something they call "disinvestment" which are really sales from other known inventories. Now keep in mind that the Silver Institute is regarded by many as having an agenda to keep the price of silver low, and their figures are slanted in that direction to understate the problem. But even they can't hide the shortages. There is a huge amount of information out there about the shortage of silver that is almost upon us. But I'll leave it to you to decide whether to pursue it, or continue to rely on opinions and gut feelings. Strictly speaking, studying silver as a commodity isn't numismatics, although it could have a very big impact on the future value of many of the coins all of us hold.

And regarding Speedy's silver sale, all I can say is that judging from the futures market, the next move in the price of silver looks like it may be a swing down in a long term uptrend. So you will have a chance to undo your sale, which I believe was not a good long term move [opinion only].

 

cloudsweeper, I have seen lots of material regarding the notion of silver's impending market explosion - but it's all speculation. There is no guarantee. All the information that promises future performance is based on facts derived from indications.

It's not as solid as it presents itself. When claims are made that something is undervalued, because it slipped past people's attention, it's usually one of three things:

1. a lot of risk
2. a lot of opinion
3. a lot of hype

Sometimes the risk pans out and people make money. Sometimes the opinions turn out to be true. Sometimes the hype builds interest, and there's a reaction. But what happens when it doesn't turn out for the best? The risk didn't pay off, the opinions turned out to be untrue, and the hype was just a good sales pitch.

I could be wrong, but if there was an impending silver shortage coming up that promised a rise in the commodity, I guess I would expect more than silver speculators to be talking about it.

 

and it does affect numismatics a great deal. The last silver explosion saw the destruction of a lot of coin silver... doesn't so much affect me, because I'm not a big collector of US modern types, but one can see how it impacts numismatics.

 

Of course there is a risk involved in investing in silver, or any other commodity for that matter. They key is to look for a commodity that has strong fundementals, which Silver certainly does. Will silver shoot up to $50 or even $100 an ounce? Who knows. However, when one looks at the supply vs demand, current above ground stocks, massive short positions which must be covered, and the uncontrolled leasing of Silver by central banks around the globe, it makes a strong case for Silver IMHO. However, nothing is a sure thing. That being said, I do feel that purchasing junk silver coins, especially clad Kennedy's, is a very low risk investment. Even if Silver did tank, these coins will retain their face value. Silver clad Kennedy's can be purchased for current spot price (less than a dollar per coin). There is little to be lost if the POS falls and much to gain if it explodes.

 

TOLS
Thanks for the link...
This guy that wrote the article is nothing more than an Invester who guess's at what will happen and he hopes he is right because people pay him $$$ to get advise....
A few quotes from the article

And if silver does go up....I bet he will sell...and that would bring down the price faster than you can say Dog gone it...

I think a Bull Market is a market that last 5 years....if so we are near the end...

He thought that would cause it to go up....I don't think it did....

He wrote the article in 2003 and said the market would blow up anyday....its been 2 years and people still call that facts????
I read that article all the way though...and all I see was guess's....some good guess's and some came true....but I think that guy should get a job at a Newspaper hyping the price of silver....

cloudsweeper
Like TOLS your info and facts are outdated....also both sites have been at "Investing" sites....you can almost bet that NO Invester is going to tell you anything other than that silver is on the up....but a collector will tell you the truth about the market...I have talked to collectors that have collected for 30-50+ years and none of them think its going to shoot the moon....but then the collectors I talk too that have only collected a few short years....will say yes....

I did....the figures are old...

Its not that...its either rely on the market and Facts or rely on Investers and guess's and old figures...
I go by the facts...

I guess I took a gut feeling on this but I could have bet you would say that

Let me say I never said silver wouldn't go up some....It may...but I don't think we are going to see $10 or over that.....silver may go up but what goes up...always come down....

Rick

that is because there can be NO guarantee on this type of thing....Investers say there is because that is what they have to do to hype and such....they get paid for that kind of info...

Aren't you glad you and I are collectors??...it makes it soo much nicer

Speedy

 

And before anyone says it...I read both links and all of the articles open minded trying to learn any truth that was out there.....

Speedy

 

I'm glad that you took the time to read the articles Speedy, even if you did come to a different conclusion

 

Exactly so.

 

Also, I admire the fact that you don't accept something just because you're told "that's the way it is". IMHO, there is plenty of evidence that supports the POS rising in the near future, and from what I've seen, no fact based arguements that can refute the figures presented. While numbers don't lie, they can be misinterpreted. So, if there is information out there that would dispell what Cloud and I have been saying as myth, please, let me know!

 

Good luck to you Speedy. I'm not going to try to convince you any further. Fortunately you are young enough to learn from experience, so keep this discussion in mind over the next few years. These big secular trends tend to unfold slowly, so there should be ample opportunity to change your mind along the way. Sometimes it takes a gigantic miss of an opportunity staring you in the face to recognize the next opportunity when it comes around in life. I've missed my share in the past. But don't miss too many of them. Each of us only has a limited number of punches on our ticket.

 

TOLS
More than likely I'll be reading them again and I will be seraching this out more so you never know.....Might change yet...

True...
I'll try to post some links when I have time....most of the things I have read has been in printed form....and some from talking to collectors but I'll try to post some...

Cloudsweeper---thanks and your right....it may be looking me right in the face....

Speedy

 

One thing I forgot to say...TOLS...when you get the Sunday paper there is almost an ad in it somewhere that say in BIG BOLD letters that GOLD WILL GO TO $1000 AN OUNCE ANYDAY AND YOU SOULD BUY IT....when you see that what do you think....fact or myth....its a myth...that Co. is there to make money and they have NO fact that gold will go that high...I bet if you would call them they would say....our Investment person tells us that the trend is pointing in that way....or we can't tell you our place where we get them info...that is almost like saying Martha had inside info about her stock going down....hog wash...yet people belive it....

I would like to think that silver is going up....but the truth is....I can't....I would like to think that I'll get a Deer this year when I go Bow hunting but the truth is...more than likely I'll see them but won't get a good shot....
Call it a gut feeling....in fact I would almost call it a gut....but most of the time the gut is right and in my searching and reading I have to call my shots....you call yours....and I'll call mine....
I'm glad we are not all the same....aren't you

Speedy

 

didnt she???


I would like to think that I'll get a Deer this year when I go Bow hunting...[/QUOTE]

great - thanks for reminding me -- crap still 30+/- days to go for November 15th .... gonna be a long month

 

Good point Speedy. Its just that when I look at the numbers, I see huge potential for silver. I don't know how high the POS will go or when it will happen, but I believe that Silver is undervalued right now. So, I'm going to act accordingly. I however wouldn't advise anyone to make any investment that they aren't comfortable with.

 

silver down

now silver is heading south. from a high of $7.91 to a low of $7.62.

 

I only have a gut feeling on that

Amen, amen, amen....that is the #1 top thing....make sure YOU like it....

Speedy

 

Wow! A lot cliche from collectors on investing. Please allow me to give some cliche from an investor on investing.

I am on record here as a long-term investor struggling with the details of collecting. But I am certainly not trying to tell collectors how collecting, grading, etc., work, or should work. I have said I may take five years to buy a numismatic, or I might buy tomorrow.

Respectfully, I would suggest collectors do more listening to experienced investors in acquiring additional knowledge, rather than trying to persuade investors about investing or trading.

It occurs to me one thing that might be helpful in bringing the disciplines together and furthering the discussion is to suggest a couple of major differences between the activities are as follows:

(1) Collecting seems to be heavily based upon current facts, or near-facts.
Although there are some uncertainties, the value of a coin appears to be largely a factor of age, condition, guestimated mintage still existing, content, authenticity, grading, market makers, etc. There are certainly other considerations.

(2) On the other hand, success in investing and trading can be heavily based less on fact than on perception, actions at the margin, expectations, etc. Markets can be major dicounting mechanisms, moving significantly prior to fact. Perhaps counterintuitively, there is a recognized strategy of buying on the rumor, and selling on actualization of that rumor. Or, markets can swing both ways far beyond rationalization. One can be right on the fundamentals, and go broke waiting for markets to recognize it.

Plus, there is need for major money management techniques with investing. While, with collecting, there seems to be more and possibly abundant advantage in narrow specialization.

The similarity might be that, while quite different disciplines, they are equally and endlessly challenging. And, although there are exceptions, both seem to be areas where one can continue to get much better with age.

Willie (The Ghost of)

 

last quarter of 2005

i think it will be traded between $7.50 to $8.50 before entering 2006. next year, the silver might touch $10.00. who knows.