Future price prediction for silver & gold

silver keep going up

silver today hit a high of $7.73 and settled at $7.71 per ounce.

 

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price of silver

in europe and asia, price of silver continure to go up. now hit a high of $7.77.
the u.s. market open with a high of $7.82 per ounce.

 

future prediction

now it is certain that the silver will go up over $8.00

 

There is only one thing you can be certain of in coin collecting...and that is that there is nothing you can be certain of...

Anchor....no matter how much you try...there is only a 50/50 chance you are right...

Speedy

 

There is a very high probability that silver will trade above $8. The only uncertainty is when this will occur. However, silver may move lower before it moves higher; it's just the way markets work. This has nothing to do with coin collecting. It's based on an analysis of the silver commodities market. Sometimes a coin-centric view of the world doesn't lead to the correct conclusion.

 

Cloudsweeper
I know you call yourself an Invester and I think that may be way you think the way that you do but--

The market and even the price of silver DO have something to do with coin collecting...sure...there are analysis of silver what-you-mah-call-it but as I said before...its all guess's and you only have a 50/50 chance that you are right.

The market has lots to do with everything but with silver it would be how much is wanted....if someone wants LOTS of silver then that might drive the price up....note I said MIGHT....the market goes on Supply and demand....

Coin collecting also has a lot to do with the price of silver....if you don't think so you need to read some books on what happen when collectors melt their silver down and what happens when collectors hoard silver.....that my friend proves that Coin Collecting has something to do with the price of silver.

I'll reword my post....there is only one thing you can be certain of in this life....and that is that there is nothing you can be certain of....

I don't think I have a coin centric view of the world....but then the world centric is not in my dictionary so I can't make sure but I think I know what it means....

I think we will have to agree to disagree on this---Nobody on this forum or in the world....this means me, you, Anchor, or anyone can be SURE 100% sure what the market will do one day or the other....and prediction is one of the most risky things in this whole world of collecting.

Speedy

 

I do agree that the POS and coin collecting are related. If silver hits $50 an ounce, suddenly a whole bunch of Pre 1965 silver coins are going to be melted. Every time that a coin is melted, it is forever lost to collectors. So, the fewer coins, the greater the price. Will the difference be large? Probably not in the short term. However, who knows what impact a mass melt will have on the coin market down the road.

 

We (The coin hobby) has already seen mas melts in the pass and I think it has done big things to the POS at the time of the melt and even now...and it was really bad for the mintages of coins...now we don't know how many are left of most silver coins...

Speedy

 

You are correct that when you guess, your chance of being right is 50/50. When you "analyze" the odds get much better.

If you check out the silver market, you will find that annual demand exceeds annual supply with the deficit made up out of [shrinking] inventories. Everyone who ever took Economics 101 knows how that will turn out.

To think that coin collecting is a major factor in the price of silver is very "coincentric" thinking [to coin a phrase]. Maybe it was at one time when silver was used as money, but no longer. But it's natural to believe that your personal interest has an outsized impact on the world.

You are correct that there is no such thing as a sure thing. But when you've been around long enough to see continuous dollar depreciation through inflation, forecasting future long term price moves becomes easier. I have no short term predictions for the price of silver. But I think I know the direction of the price over the next decade.

Time will tell who is correct.

 

im no expert cloudsweeper99 by any means. But something that others had posted make too much sense to ignore. Silver prices at todays value, make accessing some silver mines uneconomical. When silver heads up to a certain level, these mines now become economical and silver flattens out or lowers some -- these types of uncertanties make predicting silver prices or any bullion prices - well, more like guessing. We all now what happens when you ass-u-me .....

It is fun to guess, and hope one is right, but the odds......

 

Its fun to speculate on the spot price of metals, and if you guess right you can make money on day to day trading (or even shorter time spans) But even month to month, there are far more stable and predictable options to invest in other than gold and silver. In short, I wouldn't ever plan to retire based on the value of my coin collection.....particullary b/c that would mean selling it

 

You're right Daggar, new mines will come on line and old mines will increase production as much as possible if the POS rises. However, it takes years to open mines. It is in that period after the POS has risen, but before mines can increase output, that the greatest profits can be reaped. I also agree that predicting the POS is more or less guessing. However, if you look at the fact that silver has been in a deficit for more than a decade coupled with the fact that above ground supplies are at their lowest levels in 50+ years.... Well I think that makes for an incredibly bullish outlook.

 

TOLS - you beat me to it. Good analysis. Silver has been down or stable for so long I can understand why people think it will continue this way forever. But the fundamentals are changing as you pointed out. I would also add that there are only about three dozen primary silver mines in the world. There are over 1,000 gold mines. Silver is produced as a byproduct, and while higher prices will inevitably increase supply, it might not be as much or as fast as people think.

Of course, none of this has much to do with coins except that everyone should hang on to silver coins and be reluctant to sell them if the price goes to $10 or so. It could go a lot higher. This won't happen immediately, but it will happen. Not 100% certain, but nothing is. It's like having pocket aces in Texas hold em'. It doesn't guarantee a win, but that's the way to bet.

 

keep in mind that the spot price of silver is not a reflection of the price given upon all the silver already held - it is a price of the silver that is currently being traded. I think it's a fairly safe assumption that if silver climbed to 10 per oz., a lot of people holding VASTS amounts of silver today would see a 30% profit margin and unload.

 

The thing is that there isn't even that much silver in private hands. The highest estimates put it 500 million ounces. While this may sound like a lot, the current deficit is in the neighborhood of 150 million ounces per YEAR. So, even if everyone who holds silver privately sold, there isn't even enough silver to meet industrial demands for four years. With a situation like this, I personally feel very confident with investing in silver.

 

What is Coincentric????....
It is factor in the POS....maybe not a major factor but still a factor...
I never try to let my personal interest go over what I think it true...I try to search out everything to the best I can and I try to only posts facts...Coin Collecting is a factor in the price of silver no matter how you look at it...

Amen

A few things...who says that it is in the deficit??...that is a matter of opinion....untill it is wanted more it will not go up....
We have been in a Bull Market for sometime now and its about time for it to go bye-bye if it follows the trends of other Bull market...

Speedy

 

It is a fact that more silver is being consumed than is being mined. It is also a fact that above ground stocks are at their lowest levels since the end of WWII. The only matter of opinion is when these facts will be reflected by a rise in the POS

 

Speedy- All I can say is that TOLS is correct. Some people will believe it, some won't. Keeping in mind that it is entirely possible for silver to drop in price by $1 [since it is highly volitile and imacted by futures market speculation in the short run], it isn't likely [closer to impossible] that the lower price can hold for long because it's below the cost of bringing a new ounce to market from exploration to final sale. So either the price will eventually rise or the world will eventually do without silver. We're talking years here, not decades, until this happens. People talk about opening new mines and the tons of silver that will be dumped on the market from some unidientified imaginary source. Even if this is true, neither event will take place unless and until the price of silver is much higher than it is now [otherwise it would have already occured at $7 silver]. None of this is opinion. It is verifiable, but not easily. That's what makes the information valuable. Most people don't know it yet [or don't even think about it]. Coins are only a factor in the price of silver to the extent the holders are willing to melt them at spot. Sales between collectors don't impact the world price of the commodity.

Anyway, I love silver and the dynamics of the market for it, but I know from experience that it usually isn't possible to change someone's long and strongly held opinion. It's the people who believe that the way things have been is the only way it could possibly be who are eventually blindsided by change. Times are changing for silver.

 

My friend...how is it being "consumed"??...its bening hoarded and collected and when the price goes up---many will sell it fast...

And your more than likely right...

If you have some links to articles I would love to see them...so far what I have been reading about silver going up has been written by Investers and I don't count on them too much...

I can change my mind on this and will for sure IF I can get some hard printed proof that will stand up that proves it...so far that info has not come in my search...

I sure do love this kind of topic....I may not sound like it but every post is written openly and I'm always open to read info and to search it out....

Speedy

 

to my understanding, silver is used in photography - where it is actually consumed. SIlver is also used in various degrees in electronics and appliances, and not stripped when the product is thrown out... I don't think that could amount to the figures they are talking about, though.

I guess I take exception to the statement that it isn't likely to stay there because it costs more to mine, refine, and bring to the market than it's worth - that's why it isn't mined significantly... I have heard that silver today is primarily a by product of copper mining, which has a much more prevelant use.

As GD pointed out earlier, there are so many people in one camp or another, when it comes to silver - each with their opinions. I guess I'll just sit back and watch, but you won't find me filling my basement with the stuff.