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Message:: [QUOTE="kanga, post: 368978, member: 9270"]Two general observations: 1. Modern material, particularly modern commemoratives (1982 and newer), are going to go the way of sports cards.There is overproduction, much of which is out of range of the average collector.Since there are only a few customers, this area of the market will collapse.The bummer is, it is mostly people new to collecting who are trying to buy this stuff and they'll quit when the bottom falls out.Thus we lose collectors who might have turned to more classical collecting if they were able to hang around for 10-20 years. 2. Watch the overall market, both coins and bullion.If it takes off like a rocket, stop buying.The market tends to price out the collectors in this case, and you end up with dealers and a few investors trading amongst themselves.The classic case is 1980, with a similar but smaller event about 1990.Everything blew through the roof, then crashed even faster.Find the chart and look at what happened (I think Coin World's chart goes back that far.)I think one of the best happenings recently was the decline in precious metals prices.Some people got hurt by that, but not like in 1980.[/QUOTE]