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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;yakpoo, post: 903153, member: 18157&quot;]Of course, like any good SW Engineer, my thinking comes back to one central point...testing the extremes. In other words, define the extreme outcome (both pro and con) and determine which presents the greatest risk.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><b>Scenario #1 (negative):</b> The Mint is completely dishonest and they will keep releasing these FS coins via surreptitious channels through 2015; distorting the final mintage numbers and making them only worth bullion. This assumes the published gold content is accurate and bullion doesn&#039;t fall to zero.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><b>Outcome #1 (negative):</b> The coins won&#039;t be worth more than bullion in our lifetimes and a drop in bullion prices to $600/oz would represent a 70% loss in the short term (bullion + premium).</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><b>Scenario #2 (Positive):</b> The Mint is completely honest and after each design goes &quot;off sale&quot; from the Mint, the dies are destroyed and excess coins are melted. The &quot;sales&quot; numbers actually <b>ARE</b> the mintage numbers.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><b>Outcome #2 (positive):</b> Economic circumstances keep mintages for the 2009/2010 coins at severly depressed levels. An improving economy in the out-years, coupled with greater popularity for the modern First Spouses and increased series popularity after the series ends...all combine to produce a much wider collector base. The widened collector base produces realized auction prices for the &quot;low mintage&quot; 2009/2010 coins into the $10,000-$20,000 range.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>So...let&#039;s evaluate....</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><b>Outcome #1</b> may offer a short-intermediate loss of as much as 70% (which can be writen off against a taxible gain) or kept as part of a balanced investment portfolio.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><b>Outcome #2</b> offers nearly limitless upside potential...much like the Unc (MS64FB) 1916d Mercury dime I purchased in 1972 for $800...with money I saved from my paper route.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>The likely outcome will fall somewhere in between. Since the benefits of the positive outcome far outweigh the liabilities of the negative outcome, I would tend to make my purchases based on <b>Outcome #2</b>...which is why I&#039;m still a First Spouse collector. (plus, I collect coins for the challenge and let &quot;Divine Providence&quot; determine what my profit should be!) <img src="styles/default/xenforo/clear.png" class="mceSmilieSprite mceSmilie8" alt=":D" unselectable="on" unselectable="on" />[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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