Figuring Out Market Value - Case Study - 1911-S Cent

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Every dealer within 200 miles of Cincinnati use Grey Sheet. All the major shows I've attended with hundreds of dealers from coast to coast also used/respected Grey Sheet. While it's not the bible, it's a very good price guide and any dealer worth his salt will use it in negotiations most of the time. Obviously, there are coin by coin exceptions. I've seen dealers hold firm to higher prices on nicer coins and I can repect that.

If you're looking at a specific coin, Doug has it dead-on correct. You have to do your DD using the auction sites. These are the prices people are willing to pay, which is the TRUE value of any coin.

 

Hey everyone . . . thanks for being patient with me . . .

OK, well, this is new information for me. I assumed Grey Sheet was useful for dealers, but not small-time collectors like me. (And, guys, I'm way into it with my heart, but I don't have a budget, so I consider myself small time).

and

Yes -- that makes sense, although probably none (or close to none) of the coins I am in the market for are on auctions (except eBay).

To give you a sense of the magnitude . . . except for coin albums, the cost of the monthly grey sheet ($60 ?) exceeds anything I've ever spent on a coin . . . .

Again, thank you all for your patience!

 

I don't buy enough to justify a grey sheet either Sholom, so I use ebay completed auctions and heritage to get a decent ball park figure on what I want to spend.

 

No, no, no.....Grey Sheet is dirt cheap! You don't need the expensive subscription plan. Just buy ONLY what you need. As a Lincoln collector all I need is the monthly for $3.99. Have a look....IT IS CHEAP!

http://www.greysheet.com/Commerce/scripts/customer_pdf_login.asp?svc=CDNi&

 

I sure hope this won't be too expensive a lesson for me.

I just spent $3.99, and I purchased:

Coin Dealer Newsletter - Greysheet 12/18/2009

I don't see Lincoln cents listed individually there. It's mostly dollar coins, and high end (AU and up) Mercury Dimes and Walking Liberty Halves.

I'm low end, looking to fill holes on a budget.

What did I do wrong?

 

Yes, the values don't really change all that much from month to month so it's usually fine buying last month's edition. It's good enough for the causual buyer to use at coin shows.

On a side note....I ALWAYS have one with me at coin shows. Dealers usually abide by it and they even sometimes ask to see MY copy. LOL My favorite Lincoln dealer uses it as his main pricing guide. I buy 95% of my Lincolns from him because he typically sells to me below bid since I'm a good customer. When I pull anything out of his inventory and ask price, he pulls out CDN.

 

What's the greysheet for this coin? I might have missed it... but I do know that executive coin uses the greysheet for their inventory.

 

Ahhh . . . thank you, that's the ticket! Got it.

Thanks, y'all, for leading me by the hand here!

 

Well now, that's interesting. Let me add greysheet to this little table here (note: I am putting in the average of bid and ask -- in each instance here bid is $2 less then what's in the table, and ask is $2 more).

Numismedia: 20/29/37
mtvcoins.com - /58/ -
coastcoin.com 55/-/-
valleycoin.com - /66/69
executivecoin.com -/48/-

PCGS 44/-/58​

Red Book 45/50/55
Littleton 99/105/110

Greysheet-bid 42/44/46
Greysheet-ask 46/48/50

And so, indeed, executive coin is selling a VG-8 (or what they claim is VG-8) for the same price as Greysheet ask.

So -- here are my next questions:

Will dealers purchase coins at around greysheet bid? (With all the usual caveats: accurate grading, no bad spots, etc.)

And, if the answer's yes, and if I find, say, a 1911-S on eBay -- that turns out to be accurately rated, say, VG-8, for $20-something, will I make money by flipping it to a dealer? (Yes, I'm presuming all my time and research doesn't cost anything -- this is a hypothetical).

Note: I'm not trying to find a way to make money here, mostly I'm trying to get the lay of the land here.
​

 

In other words, they have a lot of supply. And excess supply means lower prices. OK -- that makes sense.

But then why isn't that reflected already in the Greysheet prices?!? I.e., how then is Greysheet relevant when they report more common stuff low in value? What's the point of listing prices that are valid for non-common stuff, but not valid for common stuff? (or is it: this is what one dealer will pay another when one needs it and the other has it?)

(OK, and I have to ask: is the coin in question, in this case a 1911-S, considered "low in value")

 

Well, yeah, that's the nature of inquiry, no?

And, I do appreciate all the info . . . as I wrote earlier in the thread: "Hey everyone . . . thanks for being patient with me . . ." And I mostly meant you!

Speaking of which, you answered this one so well and so completely, I'm out of questions right now. (Or, perhaps I'm just losing my edge, or perhaps I didn't have enough coffee this morn . . . ;-)

But, seriously, thanks. I've learned a tremendous amount from this thread, and mostly from your patient and detailed responses.

 

No, I wasn't misunderstanding the answers. (At least I don't think I was). It's just that each answer led me to view it in a different angle, which led to more questions . . . until I saw the whole picture.

Again, thank you very very much.