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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;GDJMSP, post: 2953647, member: 112&quot;]What&#039;s it say in the Red Book Kurt ? Well let&#039;s see, it says prices rise as, reason #4 - the price of gold and silver increase. And, if gold and silver drop, then coin prices drop.</p><p><br /></p><p>So here&#039;s gold and silver for the last 10 years.</p><p><br /></p><p>[ATTACH=full]721960[/ATTACH]</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>[ATTACH=full]721961[/ATTACH]</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>And here&#039;s coins for the last 10 years.</p><p><br /></p><p><img src="https://www.pcgs.com/PCGSMedia/graphs/index10graph.gif" class="bbCodeImage wysiwygImage" alt="" unselectable="on" /> </p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>I don&#039;t see much similarity in those charts. So that one&#039;s out.</p><p><br /></p><p>The Red Book also lists reasons for increases as - 1 inflation going up and speculators turning to tangible assets, or the number of collectors increasing and the supplies of coins remain stationary or decrease; 2 dealers replace their stocks only from collectors or other dealers; 3 speculators attempt to influence the market through selective buying. 4 is listed above.</p><p><br /></p><p>Well, here&#039;s inflation for the last 10 years, and it has dropped some, so that appears to correlate.</p><p><br /></p><p>[ATTACH=full]721962[/ATTACH]</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>As for the number of collectors increasing - you have repeatedly claimed that the number collectors is and has been decreasing. So coin prices should be going up, according to that reason listed in the Red Book. So either they are wrong, or you are - because prices are and have been going down.</p><p><br /></p><p>As for reason #2 for increases, where else are dealers going to buy their coins if not from collectors or other dealers ? I mean there simply isn&#039;t any other source. So I&#039;d have to say that one could have no affect either way.</p><p><br /></p><p>And reason #3, speculators can make the market go up. I&#039;d have to agree. </p><p><br /></p><p>The Red Book says prices decline when - 1 changes in collecting habits or economic conditions alter demand; 2 speculators sell in large quantities; 3 hoards or large holdings are suddenly released; 4 gold and silver prices decline.</p><p><br /></p><p>We already know the price of gold and silver doesn&#039;t match what is happening with coin prices - so #4 is out. Are speculators selling ? Yeah they probably are as that is what they do when prices drop, or conversely prices drop when that is what they do. I know of no large hoards that have been found in the past 10 years, certainly none that could affect the entire coin market in any way - so that one&#039;s out. </p><p><br /></p><p>So about all that&#039;s left to explain the steady drop in coin prices, according the Red Book, are collecting habits changing and speculators selling.</p><p><br /></p><p>And what did I say above Kurt ? I said - &quot;You can give a hundred different reasons, and all of them are probably valid to one degree or another.&quot;</p><p><br /></p><p>But in any event the Red Book, that you tell people they should believe, is 2 out of 4 - half right. </p><p><br /></p><p>While I didn&#039;t give any specific reasons other than to say that there are many of them all of which are probably valid to one degree or another.</p><p><br /></p><p>So what is it exactly that I have said that people should not believe ?[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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