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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Valentinian, post: 2406913, member: 44316&quot;]Those who wish to sell coins to you will tell you that prices have gone up and can point to many examples. However, that is with the benefit of hindsight and selection of outliers. I have an extensive library with old (1970s and more recent) catalogs of both minor and major firms. I have files of published ancient-coin-investment advice. The vast majority of ancient coins have <b>not</b> beat inflation and certainly not enough to overcome a buyer&#039;s fee, seller&#039;s fee, and shipping expenses. </p><p><br /></p><p>It is easy to make an investment category look good.&nbsp; Consider an investment firm which asserts that 80% of their mutual funds beat the market ten-year average. Easy!&nbsp; Start with 20 funds ten years ago, have four beat the market, and be sure to fold 15 of the other lousy ones before they get to 10 years old. So, among the five that actually still exist to <b>have</b> a ten-year record, four of five beat the market. 80%. (Don&#039;t mention the other fifteen funds that your firm no longer has.) </p><p><br /></p><p>Ditto for coins, including ancient coins. If you look at what was recommended ten (or thirty) years ago, you will get a different picture than if you look at what you might have bought ten (or thirty) years ago that would have been a good deal (if you could have found it available at the price they assign to it). </p><p><br /></p><p>One piece of advice that has been offered for decades has some truth, if your goal making money (However, with coins, it should not be). That is, buy top quality. Not all top quality coins go up enough to make money (most don&#039;t), but only top quality coins go up enough to make money (some do).</p><p><br /></p><p>Many times recently I have seen coins in the $1000+ range with citations to old auctions. When I look them up I often find they sell for less now than they did then--sometimes much less. So it is certainly not the case that &quot;expensive&quot; guarantees the quality that goes up in value. </p><p><br /></p><p>However, the current retail dollar value of the majority of coins that retailed for, say, $40 thirty or twenty or ten years ago is--wait for it--about $40. Factor in inflation and that is a big percentage loss. Plus the dealer won&#039;t give you anywhere near $40. </p><p><br /></p><p>If you think coins <b>have</b> gone up since you started collecting consider the possibility that your standards have gone up and that is the true cause of the &quot;rising prices.&quot; The quality of a $X coin bought when you were a beginner is no longer as pleasing as it once was, so you now need to pay, say, $1.5X to get a coin you like. I submit that usually the increase in cost is the cost of higher quality, not a true increase in prices. </p><p><br /></p><p>On the other hand, a $40 coin can give you a great deal of pleasure for thirty years. The internet has made ancient coins much more available increasing the supply side of the equation. Maybe that effect is fully factored in and in the future coins will track inflation. Maybe they will go up (and, maybe not). Regardless, treat collecting as a hobby to enrich the mind, if not the wallet, and it pays off well enough.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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