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<p>[QUOTE="Roerbakmix, post: 4517298, member: 100731"]Just to add some data, I've imported the CNG auction 112 (09-2019) for no particular reason, except that one of my coins was auctioned in it:</p><p><br /></p><p>Here we see the relation between the estimated price (x-axis) and the realized price (y-axis). The dotted line would mean that the coin was sold at the estimated price (n=856 coins):</p><p>[ATTACH=full]1119170[/ATTACH]</p><p>So, eyeballing this graph, most coins are in the 0-5000 hammered price, and the relation between the estimated price and hammered price seems fairly linear.</p><p><br /></p><p>Zoomed in at the 0-5000 price range...</p><p>[ATTACH=full]1119177[/ATTACH]</p><p>... it becomes clear however that coins in this price range usually hammer higher than the estimate, with only a few hammering at or lower than the estimate.</p><p><br /></p><p>When looking at the relation between the estimate and the ratio hammer prize / estimated price, we see this again: most coins at the lower end result in a higher hammered price</p><p>[ATTACH=full]1119178[/ATTACH]</p><p> - indeed, the ratio between the hammered prize and the estimated price in the 0-5000 estimate range is 1.67 (95% CI 1.62 - 1.71); for the 5000 to max estimate range, this is 1.24 (95% CI 1.16-1.32), an obvious difference (though the 5000 cut-off is of course arbitrarily chosen).</p><p><br /></p><p><i>(unfortunately, for my coin, within the 0-5000 price range at an estimate of 2000$ yielded 1900$; a ratio of 0.95 <img src="styles/default/xenforo/clear.png" class="mceSmilieSprite mceSmilie3" alt=":(" unselectable="on" unselectable="on" />)</i>[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="Roerbakmix, post: 4517298, member: 100731"]Just to add some data, I've imported the CNG auction 112 (09-2019) for no particular reason, except that one of my coins was auctioned in it: Here we see the relation between the estimated price (x-axis) and the realized price (y-axis). The dotted line would mean that the coin was sold at the estimated price (n=856 coins): [ATTACH=full]1119170[/ATTACH] So, eyeballing this graph, most coins are in the 0-5000 hammered price, and the relation between the estimated price and hammered price seems fairly linear. Zoomed in at the 0-5000 price range... [ATTACH=full]1119177[/ATTACH] ... it becomes clear however that coins in this price range usually hammer higher than the estimate, with only a few hammering at or lower than the estimate. When looking at the relation between the estimate and the ratio hammer prize / estimated price, we see this again: most coins at the lower end result in a higher hammered price [ATTACH=full]1119178[/ATTACH] - indeed, the ratio between the hammered prize and the estimated price in the 0-5000 estimate range is 1.67 (95% CI 1.62 - 1.71); for the 5000 to max estimate range, this is 1.24 (95% CI 1.16-1.32), an obvious difference (though the 5000 cut-off is of course arbitrarily chosen). [I](unfortunately, for my coin, within the 0-5000 price range at an estimate of 2000$ yielded 1900$; a ratio of 0.95 :()[/I][/QUOTE]
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