Message:

<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Silverlock, post: 3243803, member: 98181&quot;]The third and last post in this series examines how risky shopping on eBay really is. </p><p><br /></p><p>The chance an ancient coin listed on eBay is fake varies considerably with the price of the coin. The higher the price of the coin, the greater the probability it is fake. This pattern holds for all collectibles.</p><p><br /></p><p>Fake in this context is considered to be any coin not correctly described in the listing. This includes modern copies not identified as such, questionable features used to inflate attribution, gross misattributions. For our purposes fake does not include grading, coins described as rarer than they are, and descriptive discrepancies not affecting overall attribution.</p><p><br /></p><p>I studied the fake reports and purchased coins that looked questionable specifically to calibrate my eye, but keep in mind these percentages are based on my personal assessment of authenticity from listing photos. Your mileage may vary. I would appreciate hearing other assessments.</p><p><br /></p><p>These were sampled periodically over the past two years, the percentages bounce around, sometimes substantially, so think of these as average values for the entire period:</p><p><br /></p><p>LRB &lt;20% fake</p><p>Average Roman emperor denarius (Marcus Aurelius) &lt;20%</p><p>Average Roman sestertius &lt;20%</p><p>Athenian owl tetradrachm &lt;20% recently, normally 20 - 40%</p><p>Aegean turtle 40 - 60%</p><p>Julius Caesar denarius 40 - 60%</p><p><br /></p><p>For context, here is how these ancient coin fake percentages compare to similar surveys I&#039;ve conducted or read about from eBay:</p><p><br /></p><p>US coins (all) &lt;20% fake</p><p>Rare books (all) &lt;20%</p><p>Baseball cards (all) &lt;20%</p><p>Minerals &lt;20%</p><p>Meteorites (all) &lt;20%</p><p>Lunar meteorites 60 - 80%</p><p>Martian meteorites 40 - 60%</p><p>Trilobites over 3cm &gt;80%</p><p>Dinosaur bones &lt;20%</p><p>Dinosaur eggs &gt;80%</p><p>Dinosaur skin &gt;80%</p><p>Collectible knives &lt;20%</p><p>Roman antiquities (over $100) 60 - 80%</p><p>Egyptian antiquities (over $100) &gt;80%</p><p>All antiquities (over $100) &gt;80%</p><p><br /></p><p>Buying an inexpensive LRB from an unknown seller on eBay is a pretty safe bet. While there is still (surprisingly) some risk of receiving a fake, the majority of the coins appear genuine. This is likely due to the low price and plentiful supply of real LRB&#039;s. Moving up market, Athens owls are usually a risky proposition, with 20 - 40% fakes, though right now it&#039;s less risky due to the flood of legitimate owls from reputable dealers. At the other end of the scale is the Julius Caesar denarius, with 40 - 60% fake, the specific percent at any given time heavily influenced by the number of slabbed coins offered. </p><p><br /></p><p>Conclusion: For a novice collector, eBay is a minefield. Overall, the chance of a random ancient coin being fake is probably less than 5%, less than 1 in 20. That risk increases substantially, however, as the buyer moves up market. Buyers are drawn to eBay looking for a bargain, which do indeed occur, though data I&#039;ve been gathering (in progress) suggests that, on average, genuine coins on eBay settle 10 - 20% higher than on other venues, due in part to the eBay fees. My advice is that novice collectors avoid eBay entirely. You likely aren&#039;t missing out on any bargains and you are risking throwing away your money, and, worst of all, supporting the frauds who produce and traffic in fakes.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

Your name or email address:

Do you already have an account?

• No, create an account now.
• Yes, my password is:
• Forgot your password?

Stay logged in