eBay: Risk of a fake

The third and last post in this series examines how risky shopping on eBay really is.

The chance an ancient coin listed on eBay is fake varies considerably with the price of the coin. The higher the price of the coin, the greater the probability it is fake. This pattern holds for all collectibles.

Fake in this context is considered to be any coin not correctly described in the listing. This includes modern copies not identified as such, questionable features used to inflate attribution, gross misattributions. For our purposes fake does not include grading, coins described as rarer than they are, and descriptive discrepancies not affecting overall attribution.

I studied the fake reports and purchased coins that looked questionable specifically to calibrate my eye, but keep in mind these percentages are based on my personal assessment of authenticity from listing photos. Your mileage may vary. I would appreciate hearing other assessments.

These were sampled periodically over the past two years, the percentages bounce around, sometimes substantially, so think of these as average values for the entire period:

LRB <20% fake
Average Roman emperor denarius (Marcus Aurelius) <20%
Average Roman sestertius <20%
Athenian owl tetradrachm <20% recently, normally 20 - 40%
Aegean turtle 40 - 60%
Julius Caesar denarius 40 - 60%

For context, here is how these ancient coin fake percentages compare to similar surveys I've conducted or read about from eBay:

US coins (all) <20% fake
Rare books (all) <20%
Baseball cards (all) <20%
Minerals <20%
Meteorites (all) <20%
Lunar meteorites 60 - 80%
Martian meteorites 40 - 60%
Trilobites over 3cm >80%
Dinosaur bones <20%
Dinosaur eggs >80%
Dinosaur skin >80%
Collectible knives <20%
Roman antiquities (over $100) 60 - 80%
Egyptian antiquities (over $100) >80%
All antiquities (over $100) >80%

Buying an inexpensive LRB from an unknown seller on eBay is a pretty safe bet. While there is still (surprisingly) some risk of receiving a fake, the majority of the coins appear genuine. This is likely due to the low price and plentiful supply of real LRB's. Moving up market, Athens owls are usually a risky proposition, with 20 - 40% fakes, though right now it's less risky due to the flood of legitimate owls from reputable dealers. At the other end of the scale is the Julius Caesar denarius, with 40 - 60% fake, the specific percent at any given time heavily influenced by the number of slabbed coins offered.

Conclusion: For a novice collector, eBay is a minefield. Overall, the chance of a random ancient coin being fake is probably less than 5%, less than 1 in 20. That risk increases substantially, however, as the buyer moves up market. Buyers are drawn to eBay looking for a bargain, which do indeed occur, though data I've been gathering (in progress) suggests that, on average, genuine coins on eBay settle 10 - 20% higher than on other venues, due in part to the eBay fees. My advice is that novice collectors avoid eBay entirely. You likely aren't missing out on any bargains and you are risking throwing away your money, and, worst of all, supporting the frauds who produce and traffic in fakes.

 

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There are no bargains on eBay. Closing within a few hours: a couple of common antoniniani of Gordian III for $140 or "best offer," several Porcius Festus Prutot for $547.77 or "best offer," a Severus Alexander denarius with porous surfaces for $158.80 or "best offer," etc., etc.

If you don't know the ancient coin market, you are going to get taken for a ride on eBay.

 

B.S., plenty of bargains to be hand, just takes time, experience and much hunting.

 

No market is perfectly efficient so by definition bargains must occur. Experienced skillful folks such as yourself can root them out. That said, the chance of a novice netting a bargain on eBay is more than offset by the risk that what they are buying isn't as advertised, a risk that, on average, they are paying a premium to take. For a novice, averaged over a group of purchases, @Roman Collector is absolutely correct in that eBay is no bargain.

 

I have a wary eye towards anything on Ebay, however, I have found some good coins there at fair prices. Just watch out for the $400 Constantinian bronzes trumpeting "real ancient coin - thousands of years old!"

 

Unless you restrict your purchases to LRBs selling for less than $15, which is the advice I give all newbies.

 

I have a long page on buying ancient coins on eBay:

http://augustuscoins.com/ed/numis/auction.html

It is packed with information and advice. Read the current thread and then read that page before buying on eBay.

 

I’ll add that if you are unfamiliar with the type, you are best to avoid trying to buy it on eBay

 

As with ancient coins themselves, there's room for a lot of different opinions on EBay risk/benefit - here's my perspective "caveat emptor":
- do your homework before buying
- can be a good place for interesting, lower quality coins
- risky and overpriced for nicer coins

I would tend to agree with @Roman Collector in saying that unless you are fairly expert, or just exceptionally lucky, you are more likely to buy badly on EBay than you are to buy well.

I've bought a lot of coins on EBay - I bought one today. Buying coins on Ebay easier to do, in my view, than most of the niche online auctions. I have gotten some bargains on EBay, the more you know what you are buying the more likely you will recognize a bargain. Most of my bargains have come because I was willing to take some significant risk on an seller with few ratings, the lottery of uncleaned late roman coins, a misattributed coin, lack of provenance, a coin listed in the wrong category, or a coin with a badly lit, out of focus photo and no description, and sometimes just lucky timing with a well priced buy-it-now.

If I factor in the mistakes I've made, I would have to admit a significant markup on my "bargain price".

Several reasons why I see EBay as risky:
1) fakes - although with a little experience you can avoid the worst of these but there are still plenty of challenges - the good news, if you recognize the fake after buying it, Ebay, Paypal or the seller will generally refund your money
2) unexpected condition issues: photos and descriptions are wildly varied on EBay and poor condition coins, porosity, surface flaws, cracks, low weight flans, debased metal, bent coins can look good in photos (retouched or not). Even when the seller has decent photos or descriptions, it can be easy to miss issues and think a coin is nicer than it is in real life
3) overpriced/overrated coins - especially if you are looking for higher grade coins, EBay is generally overpriced and you will find much better deals looking at established dealer's listings
4) misleading "Bargains"- there is a lot of subjectivity in ancient coins, and the many factors that go into grading and market value that can be overlooked when asserting a "bargain"

Compare these six coins - and decide for yourself which is the bargain:
Thoria 1 (VCoins dealer $300)
Thoria 1 (VCoins dealer $125)
Thoria 1 (CNG $500 estimate)
Thoria 1 (CNG large lot - $27 estimate in a lot of 11)
Thoria 1 (Ebay dealer - $182 or best offer)
Thoria 1 (MA Shops dealer $79)

All of that said, I think EBay's positive attributes outweigh the negatives: it sets a high bar for web ease of use, it creates a more perfect market and offers instant liquidity, it has opened up access to low end coins, and makes a wider variety of ancient coins more visible and accessible. Unfortunately the good features have also made it easier to sell fakes, illegally obtained, and misleading coins.

 

Lets not forget the "UNRESEARCHED" in the title, pretty much all the "unresearched" coins are mostly fake common silver coins.

I just noticed these 2 sellers on ebay selling an "extremely rare" fake tetradrachm from Athens, it seems the same fake die is used for both coins, quite concerning, who knows how many are in circulation.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/VERY-RARE-...088241?hash=item48b852ef31:g:01wAAOSwEJZb9Gcr

https://www.ebay.com/itm/EXTREMELY-...682626?hash=item3b23158242:g:KE4AAOSw1dtb9C~Y

In the description of the seller:
"Provenance: All Items are Acquired From Legitimate Sources Such as Galleries, International Coin Fairs and Old British and European Collections."

Don't make me laugh.

 

Very well-put, Sulla 80. I think this pretty much agrees with my eBay experiences.

Yes, there are a bunch of fake Tribute Pennies and Tetradrachms on eBay. I'd never bid on that kind of material - I don't even look at it. But for low-end material eBay is hard to beat.

Far more "clutter" comes from overpriced stuff than fakes - Gordian III antoninianus for $299.00 free shipping! But the nice thing about all the clutter is that it obscures the bargains. If you are willing to hunt, there is some good stuff there.

This might not meet "good stuff" criteria for some CT members, but I just got this Hadrian sestertius in the mail yesterday - $22 on eBay - my first restitution series. Low grade, but pretty nice by my standards. Vcoins has one for $400, about the same condition. I'm pretty sure this one is genuine.


Hadrian Æ Sestertius
(134-138 A.D.)
Rome Mint
[HADR]IANVS AVG COS III PP laureate, draped bust right / [RESTITVTO]RI ACH[AIAE], Hadrian, togate, standing left, raising up kneeling Achaea; vase with palm between figures, SC in exergue.
RIC 938; Cohen 1216.
(26.17 grams / 31 mm)

 

Nice sestertius!

Here's one of my favorite Ebay purchases - I didn't write down what I paid but it was modest : ~$10.

Satavahana (Andhra) empire
Satakarni, c. 1st century BC (3 BC-53 AD)
Potin karshapana (18mm, 2.2g)
Obv: Elephant with raised trunk standing right, with Brahmi legend (Siri) Satakani(sa) above
Rev: 4-orbed 'Ujjain' symbol

A very interesting site here on coins of the Satavahana empire.

 

I agree Mat. It sure takes patience to wade through all of the fakes, overpriced nicer items (and some not so nice) and the crap listed. Like I have said before:"buyer beware".

 

Absolutely right. For the collector who can afford it, there are much better places for better coins. But you pay a premium for the "authentication" of the better coins by better dealers. For those of us for whom a $25 purchase is a big deal and where there are no dealers (reputable or otherwise) within a hundred miles, eBay is about all there is. And yes, I have bought a few fakes that were obvious, and one or two maybes. I have found a dealer or two whom I have learned to trust, and I almost exclusively buy from them these days.

There are a number of lists of "known fake dealers." I'd like to see a list of "known honest and knowledgeable dealers of low-end ancients."

 

I refer to this site all the time. Personal recommendation.

 

how about Roman REPUBLIC Denarius? Whats the % of fakes on Ebay?

 

That's gotta be higher than that. the Athenian owls are like the most faked ancient coins ever.

http://rg.ancients.info/owls/forgeries.html
Theres like TONS of them

 

High, even I stay clear of most on eBay.

 

I will admit that Roman Republican denarii are problematical on eBay. I've bought a lot of genuine low-end examples, but I have been burned a few times. I fall prey to them because they are so ugly I am betting they are genuine - usually this is a good bet, but again, sometimes not.

As for Athenian owls - so many of them on eBay are slabbed by reputable services that I would think that would skew the fake numbers somewhat - but I certainly haven't crunched the numbers. Since the slabbed ones are out of my price range and the unslabbed ones scare me, I ignore all of them.

 

There are tons of them. 20 - 40% fake is an absurdly high number. Imagine going to a BMW dealership where a third of the cars are rebadged Yugos. It’s a largely solvable problem, yet eBay refuses to act.