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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;KSorbo, post: 1858331, member: 56370&quot;]As a person who is analytical by nature, the discussions on this thread regarding market pricing are very interesting to me.&nbsp; During my career in quality assurance I have had a good bit of exposure to probability and statistics, so it is not surprising that my mind goes in that direction when thinking about coin pricing.</p><p><br /></p><p>It is impossible to be certain of the exact price for which a coin can be sold, but when we look at hard data we can determine a reasonable probability of it selling within a certain price range.</p><p><br /></p><p>Out of curiosity I pulled prices realized on Ebay for a couple of coins.&nbsp; The first is an 1881S MS65 PCGS Morgan dollar.&nbsp; I have broken down the data by the quantity of coins in each price range:</p><p><br /></p><p>&gt;$600 - 1 coin (a &quot;monster toner&quot;)</p><p>$200-$600 - 15 coins (lots of PL and Plus designations...)</p><p>$180-$200 - 18 coins</p><p>$170-$180 - 22 coins</p><p>$160-$170 - 34 coins</p><p>$150-$160 - 44 coins</p><p>$140-$150 - 9 coins</p><p><br /></p><p>Based on this there is a 55% probability of the coin selling in a narrow range between </p><p>$150-$170, and assuming the coin is average for the grade, that probability is probably much higher, as we can eliminate the toners and PL&#039;s that fetch &quot;moon money&quot;.</p><p><br /></p><p>Now that we&#039;ve looked at what is probably the best example of a &quot;commodity coin&quot;, now let&#039;s look at a coin with a lot fewer data points, a common date 2 cent piece graded MS64BN by PCGS/NGC.</p><p><br /></p><p>There were only 7 of these sold on Ebay during the same period versus 143 of the 81S Morgans.&nbsp; With only 7 data points, the prices ranged all over the map from $195 to $299.&nbsp; So not only does this coin have more pricing variation, but there is also more uncertainty, because our ability to predict future pricing is much greater with 143 data points than for 7.&nbsp; </p><p><br /></p><p>Therefore, the rarer the coin, the less certain we can be of it&#039;s future price.</p><p><br /></p><p>Without pulling the data I would be willing to bet that Heritage prices have less variation due to there being more informed buyers.&nbsp; However, for most of us selling coins, Ebay would be the most likely option.&nbsp; </p><p><br /></p><p>I know that I&#039;ve only scratched the surface of this.&nbsp; It would be an interesting research project for somebody with lots of time on their hands.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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