People play the money markets all the time using millions of dollars at a time. When the rates change by a few cents, the millions of dollars in play make for some easy hefty profits. It's a crap shoot and, unless you can afford to lose you shouldn't even think about it.
The only difference is he is swapping his own money back and forth, in effect buying and selling it to himself. And while he has more Euros at the end in terms of dollars those Euros are worth less than when he started. When he started he had 1000 euros worth 1500 dollars. After two transactions he now has 1164 Euros worth 1455 dollars. Yes he says that the local prices in Portugal aren't effected but eventually they are and will adjust to reflect the change in value.
You nailed it. Thanks! I was beginning to think I was mad. I'm not saying it definitely works. If I were sure, I wouldn't even post about it. Yes, I am assuming the exchange rate goes back and forth, and that neither account goes empty. I don't see a problem with those assumptions. The worse thing that can happen is that I don't win because one of the currencies never recovers. Losing wouldn't be an option, because I would only move money if I was sure of the gain. Yes, I would have 1164 euros worth 1455 dollars (I overestimated fees btw). That's the whole point. When the euro goes up again, I turn my money into dollars again and then have more than 1500. Then the dollar goes up, and I'll make more than 1164 euros. If this doesn't happen, I don't win. But I don't lose either. And I'm not sure how can the prices go up 16% in half a year.
