Early Year SILVER EAGLES -- Could they be a good play ???

With Mintages in the 30 to 47 million range the last few years, I am thinking we could see some real strong price appreciation for the earlier years ASES with much lower mintages of 5 million or so. If there is enough collector interest to justify these 40 million mintage numbers surely a lot of those collectors are going to be looking for the ealier years.

It seems that 1994 and 1996 have already exploded in price despite being only slightly lower mintage. I like the 1988 ( right at 5 million) and 1989 ( 5.2 million) as these 2 years can still be found for under $30. The 1997 and 1998 are also very low mintage but its not reflected yet in price.

I really don't believe we are going to see much increase in Gold or Spot prices anytime soon but I believe in the next few years these ASE issues could see very strong price increases based on their limited mintages only slightly higher than 1994 and 1996.

I feel this is a good play if one can find any of these years under $30 ( pretty easy ) especially in BU. But of course I could be wrong.

Are there any reasons I am overlooking that a 1996 with 4 million mintages is $100, a 1994 with 4.2 million is close to that and the 1988 with 5 million has only slight premium (<$5) over a 47 million mintage 2015 ?

 

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Imo no not at all. The mintage's of even the key/semi key bullion ASE's are still high enough where there is tons of coins out there. There's rolls and rolls probably sitting out there in the mint tubes right now just waiting to come back to market at some point. Certain proof mintage's or burnished ones which are already keys and have appreciated nicely perhaps are a better play. But bullion eagles, I mean the mintage's of a few million really aren't that low for bullion coins as how many are really being lost to attrition? If anything I think that even the dates with some slight premium now may come down because when baby boomers start dying off any rolls held in those collections are going to get liquidated and likely come to market increasing the available supply and depressing the price.

 

True attrition probably not a ton, though who really knows how they were impacted melting wise with the silver run up. More likely though at least a percentage have been played with by stackers who just not handled well over the years before interest really started to pick up. They may not be lost but finding a truly nice looking one could start to get harder. If something was going to have a few million set builders it would be the ASE, that said I kind of agree that we probably won't be seeing Morgan type prices for them anytime soon aside from the early 70s

 

More than plenty to go around. Nothing rare. Stack the silver and 'can' the idea of these things getting rare in the future. There will always be good uncirculated examples of these coins. They don't circulate.

 

Maybe you guys are right. I guess I just cant understand why a 1996 with 4 million mintage commands insane premiums. I saw a raw one go for almost $100 while a 1988 with 5 million mintage has virtually no premium. I guess since the 96 is the "key" date it just gets overpriced but still I would take an 88 for $28 over a 96 for $90.

 

It's all about perception. If the redbook shows stupid prices for something than the market is going to command those premiums, even if it isnt rare. The 1937 3 legged buffalo is a great example of this. Minor variety. Very common. But because price guides show stupid premiums for it. People pay them. They dont pay attention to the pop reports, just the prices. Look for yourself and see how many of those nickels pcgs has graded and tell me why they are so expensive.
http://www.pcgscoinfacts.com/Coin/Detail/3982

And lets not mention how many NGC have graded

 

For comparison, today (March 16), ASE random dates at Apmex are:

1 - 19 coins | $20.96 | $21.83cc/PayPal
20 - 99 coins | $20.76 | $21.62cc/PayPal

Call it 20 x $20.76 = $415.20 per roll, plus shipping. That's as cheap as I've seen them for a l-o-n-g time.

 

Jm bullion has them at $20.38 each if you buy 20. Even cheaper if you buy 100.

Buy you know random dates are gonna be from the years with mintages of 35 million plus right ? "Random" doesnt mean you have a chance in hell of getting a 88 89 86 94 97 98 etc.

FWIW my places pinehurst sold out of 88 and jmbullion only has 80. You are all probably right but im just trying to buy something today that has a good chance to go up even if spot doesnt.

 

I personally purchase tubes of earlier year ASEs with the goal of someday completing the set. Typically, I purchase one or two tubes of early year Eagles each calendar year. There is absolutely an additional cost to this, but it keeps collecting ASE's somewhat more interesting. Obviously there are more cost effective methods to stack, but I'm sure there are more people out there like me who want to complete the set either individually or in bulk.

If your goal is to complete the set, then go for it. If your goal is to have the most value to your collection it will likely not pay off.

 

What am I missing ? I see 1996 ASE proof's for the same price as I just bought a 2017 proof - about 53 bucks.

 

Apparently the majority of collectors are unwilling to pay more than 3 times "uncirculated" retail for Proof ASE's, regardless of the date.

 

Except certain anniversary proof sets