Early edition Red Books

Certain coins are competitive. There are also tons more that have remained flat. In fact, I will risk as much as to say that most of what people thought would be valuable in that period (certain dates of Morgan Dollars, 1950-D Nickels, etc.) were complete busts. If for your example you cherry pick what coins to have bought back then with the hindsight of history on your side, I recommend you do that with the stock market as well, and you see that it's not a fair criticism.

 

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1850's large cent in Fine 75 cents. From 47 to 2008 at 6% = $26.25 2008 redbook = $22

1840's centin Fine $1.25 47 to 2008 at 6% = $43.75 2008 redbook = $22

Unc at $3.50 at 6% = $122.50 red book = $150

1828 in Fine $1.00 at 6% = $35 redbook = $30

1812 in Good $1.00 at 6% = $35 redbook = $40

1812 in Fine $4.00 at 6% = $140 redbook = $200

1798 in Good $1.50 at 6% = $52.50 redbook = $70

1798 in Fine $5.00 at 6% = $175 redbook = $200

total $18 in 1947 at 6% = $629.50 redbook total $734. So you made about an extra $100 buying the coins, but it took you 60 years to do it. (Oh and that assumes no losses from dealers wanting to buy at wholesale or ebay fees etc when you sell them off. Once you take them out I doubt if your investment looks even this good.)

Something to remember about the prices in that book. Those are a dealers rip off buying prices, not an actual reflection of true market values at the time. So fo a fair investment comparison you would have to compare the gain from those prices to what one of these fly-by-night guys who sets up in a hotell for three days would offer you for the coins.

 

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I don't think it would take much cherrypicking. I think a collector could have put away just about any MS or lightly circulated coin obtained from the bank or pocket change from that period, paying face or close to face value, and had a profit today competitive to what they would have netted from bank interest. The dates that did not go up are the exception, not the rule. But you are correct that buying "hot" coins without regard to price is probably close to the worst thing you can do if the goal is to make money.