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<p>[QUOTE="NorthKorea, post: 2496498, member: 29643"]Again, you're comparing across completely different spectrums, though. The bid for a "BU" Ike is probably $2.75 or so. Being honest with myself, I think that's a fair number. If you quadrupled that to $11, you're still looking at $110k to acquire your 10,000 1977-P Ikes. Now, if you tried to fill the same order for 1904-O Morgans, you'd likely still cause some sort of a run up in price, let's say a 35% bump in the bid, as you'd be attempting to acquire 3% of the estimated BU survival population in one shot. Reasonably speaking, you could probably acquire about 40% of your order at the current bid and the other 60% at a premium bid. Your average acquisition price would be $42.35 or $423.5k for 10,000.</p><p><br /></p><p>Now, all that said, I doubt an order of 10k BU Ikes would quadruple the bid. It *might* move the bid 25%, and even that would be pushing it.</p><p><br /></p><p>Now, if we're discussing "gem" quality coins, that puts us in another direction.</p><p><br /></p><p>10,000 Gem 1904-O would account for 20% of the field. That would likely see bids *also* quadruple or possibly quintuple (or higher!) for the Morgans in question.</p><p><br /></p><p>Yes, you're right that there wouldn't be enough PCGS MS-65 1977-P Ikes to fill the order, initially, but the presence of a buyer would result in people bulk subbing MS-64/65 coins to get the payoff. After all, the reason no one subs as often now is the risk/reward of 65/64 simply isn't worth it. Even if we looked at 1973-P Ikes, you're still *only* seeing a 4.5x markup for 65 over 64. Given most bulk orders target around 7-10% success, you'd be looking at a doubling of the bid likely being enough momentum to get people to start making subs again. As for the 1976 type I ... that's like making a comparison to VAMs for certain Morgans. If you're going to draw on DIVA or varieties for your argument, you need to make the same trade off with VAMs for Morgans.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="NorthKorea, post: 2496498, member: 29643"]Again, you're comparing across completely different spectrums, though. The bid for a "BU" Ike is probably $2.75 or so. Being honest with myself, I think that's a fair number. If you quadrupled that to $11, you're still looking at $110k to acquire your 10,000 1977-P Ikes. Now, if you tried to fill the same order for 1904-O Morgans, you'd likely still cause some sort of a run up in price, let's say a 35% bump in the bid, as you'd be attempting to acquire 3% of the estimated BU survival population in one shot. Reasonably speaking, you could probably acquire about 40% of your order at the current bid and the other 60% at a premium bid. Your average acquisition price would be $42.35 or $423.5k for 10,000. Now, all that said, I doubt an order of 10k BU Ikes would quadruple the bid. It *might* move the bid 25%, and even that would be pushing it. Now, if we're discussing "gem" quality coins, that puts us in another direction. 10,000 Gem 1904-O would account for 20% of the field. That would likely see bids *also* quadruple or possibly quintuple (or higher!) for the Morgans in question. Yes, you're right that there wouldn't be enough PCGS MS-65 1977-P Ikes to fill the order, initially, but the presence of a buyer would result in people bulk subbing MS-64/65 coins to get the payoff. After all, the reason no one subs as often now is the risk/reward of 65/64 simply isn't worth it. Even if we looked at 1973-P Ikes, you're still *only* seeing a 4.5x markup for 65 over 64. Given most bulk orders target around 7-10% success, you'd be looking at a doubling of the bid likely being enough momentum to get people to start making subs again. As for the 1976 type I ... that's like making a comparison to VAMs for certain Morgans. If you're going to draw on DIVA or varieties for your argument, you need to make the same trade off with VAMs for Morgans.[/QUOTE]
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