Do you think that Roma Numismatics overestimate the value of their lots?

Nice coin!

 

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Well now I know who bought my RRC 422! And it's a perfect demonstration of how really terrible my photography is and how really terrific Doug's is. I think Doug is winding me up.



It otherwise seems to exactly match the RRC 422/1b description; I walked through it word by word. What's wrong with the entire curule aedile issue of 58 BC is that it was evidently contracted out to not very competent contractors who messed up in the technical manufacture, in the quality of the die cutting and in trying to shoehorn a book worth of storyline into two 18mm circles.

 

It's usually not much better here.

Your lucky to get a "nice coin" reply here, with the "like" system here on this board, most threads are just liked and get moved down to the bottom of the page pretty quick.

I tend to reply with even a "nice coin" and some extra words just to bump a thread up when I can.

Many nice coins get ignored here or passed over due to being common postings, I.E., fallen horsemen or Huts. Other types too.

The threads I actually do ignore are Cash Coins or "I'm new, where to start" threads.

 

I disagree! "Here's my newP" posts and posts with little else besides a coin and attribution tend fall quickly to to the second page but posts which have some meat on them usually draw more attention. Nothing surprising about that.

 

A possible reason for high estimates is to discourage
unreasonable low bids that waste the auction companies
time. Many U.S. companies have low estimates because
they make cash advances to some consigners on their
consignment.

 

Quite a few unsolds there... suggests that the OP may have some validity. (I myself have found that the Roma-Grotjohann cooperative sales have higher starting bids, often beyond what I'm willing to pay. But I'm usually cheap.)

 

It is my belief that an estimate should be just that - a reliable indicator of a coin’s suggested value. Anyone unfamiliar with a given type should be given a realistic point of reference for what it should be worth, and so have as much of a chance to place a winning bid as an experienced collector or dealer. This is what Roma Numismatics aims to provide.

Estimates are, to my mind, not fit for purpose if if they are deliberately set so unrealistically low that they are consistently surpassed by several multiples. One might as well note only a starting price. Not that there is anything wrong with a low starting price per se - we all love the prospect of a bargain - but if you put yourself in the shoes of the collector who is selling his coins, you would want to be assured that your property is not going to be ‘given away’ at low low prices if there are only a couple of bids (or only one). A balance must be struck for the benefit of both consignor and potential buyer.

That may well mean that certain common types or low-grade coins may simply not find a buyer at any given point in time because nobody is interested at that price point at that precise moment. The same holds true for extreme rarities of great value that happen to represent a niche collecting interest. However, it is worth bearing in mind that we are not selling potatoes and onions which must be shifted before they moulder - these metallic survivors of antiquity deserve to be treated with a little respect.

 

Roma's estimates are meaningless, almost always much lower than the hammer price - and they know it (unless they don't know anything about ancient coins).

After the auction, Roma send an email crowing about how so many coins achieved hammer prices soooo much higher than the estimates.... so you better consign your coins to them, because of this amazing achievement, they're clearly wizards.

If they're not going to provide a serious estimation of what they think the coin is worth, it would be better if they didn't provide their "estimate" at all.

 

How does an electronic bid - however low - waste anyone's time?

 

Btw, on the topic of long posts not getting enough love......

Are we teenage girls on Instagram? Do we really care about how many "likes" we get, or whether people acknowledge the post with the required amount of words?

Most of the time, all i do is read Coin Talk and learn. I have learnt more from @dougsmit in particular than any book on coins could teach me - but often i have no extra knowledge to add to the topic, so I click "like" to show my appreciation. But the words are being read, absorbed and appreciated.

 

@GregH. If the estimates are "high" then some
might be discouraged from bidding. If someone
sees a coin with a high estimate they may think
that they won't have a chance and just move on.
Not all auction companies have auctions that are
set up like CNG's, so those auction houses have
to sift through the different styles of bids.

 

So the estimate isn't what they think the coin is worth, but their starting point?
Then they should declare it as that.

 

Hi Greg, thanks for your input. Roma Numismatics is the firm I have built over the course of a decade. My opinion is not only that - it’s company policy. The fact that estimates may end up being lower than the final hammer price reflects the fact that it’s an auction. More interested bidders = higher price. How do I know we are getting the estimates correct on average? Because we aim to estimate realistically, and as a result we obtain a fairly consistent total sale hammer price of around 90-120% of the total pre-sale estimate. Yes, some estimates can be off (everyone is human, and when you’re cataloguing 1000 coins a month slips can and do happen). If you want estimates that are always bang on what a coin sells for - well, that’s called RETAIL.

We don’t “crow” about our hammer prices and last time I checked I was definitely not a wizard. I don’t like to smoke pipes, I can’t slay Balrogs, and pointy hats don’t suit me. However it is good practice to advertise to potential sellers exactly what is selling well. This is common in the coin auction world, and it usually results in more examples of that high-priced coin being consigned for sale. I’m always open to constructive criticism, so if you have anything else to add please feel free, but otherwise enjoy the rest of your weekend!

 

I find the differing points of view in these posts to be interesting and thought-provoking, and have some observations of my own about the topic(s) raised.

First, with the extensive research on ancient coin prices and auctions that can be done via the Internet, it's almost always possible to find relevant data on a potential purchase -- whether you're purchasing from a dealer or bidding at an auction. Many times it's even possible to find the exact coin on which you're contemplating a bid when it was sold previously by a dealer or auctioneer.

Forearmed with this information, you can estimate a realistic price for the coin in today's market, set your budget (including buyer's fees et al.), and figure out whether you think there will be a lot of interest and consequently lots of bids, so you can readjust your top bid if necessary. Once in a while you might not be able to find enough information to do this, but those situations are infrequent.

So there's rarely an excuse for entering into an auction without a good idea of what the coin is worth to you, and how aggressively you're going to pursue the coin. If you've done sufficient due diligence, the main (and I would argue only) relevance of the auctioneer's "estimate" is that the starting price is usually a percentage of the estimate (e.g., 80%) and whether or not this estimate is too high for your budget.

It's irrelevant whether it's too low. Yes, maybe the auction house has set the estimate at an artificially low price in the hopes of encouraging more bidding, but bargain hunters won't win a coin against a serious collector who has set his/her budget appropriately.

The estimate also makes no difference if you have two or more bidders who get carried away and bid way over their budgets so that the hammer price is artificially high. If you've set your top bid realistically, you're not going to win the coin in this situation.

I'm not specifically in agreement with either these positions, since as I've observed above, I think the only relevance of an estimate is how high it sets the opening bid. If the estimate is too high, the opening bid will be too high. As an example, in the first auction that this coin appeared, the estimate was so high that I told my dealer I would not bid even at the 80% opening bid:



Not surprisingly, the coin garnered no bids. I subsequently made an offer (through my dealer) to the auction house, an offer that failed since the auction house wanted its full commission and offered no return guarantee if the coin didn't meet my standards when in hand. When the coin appeared at a different auction a few months later, I won it for a price that was not only lower than its previous opening bid, but also lower than I had offered the first auction house for the coin. In this case, the first auction house's estimate was too high and fatal to selling the coin.

 

From the collector's perspective, that is indeed the gist of the issue.

 

Dear Rich Beale

The reason I asked the initial question is because of one situation I had:


I became interested in Byzantine coins around April 2015. One year later, in April 2016, I saw this Half Siliqua of Justinian in Roma Numismatics (above).

I really wanted a gold or silver from Ravenna. That is after all a specific history. I decided to bid only ONE TIME since I wanted one Ravenna-coin and since there were no other bidders, and since I trusted ROMA's opening bid. And I turned out the only bidder, and won it for 440 Pund. It is 498 Euro.

I thought I made a decent buy because I was the only bidder, and I trusted ROMA's opening bid.

But as months went and I saw other auction records I suspected that perhaps I should not have trusted ROMA’s opening price.

Because the hammer price differs completely for other coins of same type with the same grade:



























The hammerprice of 440Pund/498Euro for the opening bid is very off I think. I think it is very high. Because I see other coins with the same quality go for about 250-400 Euro. The last one with good quality ended with 558 Euro. How could I, as the only bidder, ending with a hammer price of 440Pund/498 Euro for an opening bid?

I think it was because ROMA overestimated or had a high opening price for that Ravenna coin.

Today I would not trust any auctions’ descriptions. Back then in April 2016 I was somehow a beginner, and I assumed I had nothing to lose by putting ONE bid, especially as I trusted ROMA's opening bid.

If you, or other debaters, have an opinion then I would to hear it. Perhaps I have misunderstood something. But I am convinced that ROMA had a high opening bid for that Ravenna-coin. But perhaps I have misunderstood something.

I apologize for my bad English since English is not my mothertongue. I also apologize if I have offended you.

I love my Ravenna silver of Justinian. It is just ROMA's opening bid that i feel bad about.

 

@Herberto, checking ACsearch I see only 12 of these sold between 2002 and 2017 and one is imitative. I'm not sure it's fair to say you paid too much based on that limited data. The coin is rare, collectors want rare coins, and the price you paid doesn't seem terribly out of line. There have been several since you bought yours and they sold for less but they aren't as nice as yours.

 

Did you do months of research before bidding or did you decide this was a coin you wanted and went for the first one you saw?

 

Also, based on the limited info here, I don't think what you paid was way out of line or anything. I could be wrong, these are not coins I collect.

 

Hi Herberto, I am not offended in the least. Open and frank discussion is always welcome.

If you are, as you say, convinced that you have paid too much then there is probably little I can do to dissuade you from that idea. However, as others have pointed out the coin is a rare type, and ancient coins are normally not directly comparable because of their often very different conditions and properties.

That said, I have checked our records - in 10 years we have sold only 2 examples of this type. The other, which was of lesser grade, sold for £260.

The coin you bought was estimated at £500 (which I still consider to be fair), and in fact you were not the only bidder, and you did not buy it at the opening bid as you have claimed. Contrary to what is stated above, the lot opened at £400, and since you evidently bought it for £440, there must have been at least one, if not more, other bids on that lot from another one or more bidders. Do not mistake me, I am not suggesting any dishonesty on your part in your post. The auction was 2 years ago and it’s easy to forget details like this.

In any case, if you’re not happy with the price you paid I can gladly confirm that Roma Numismatics would be willing to buy the coin back from you, as I still feel today that it’s worth more than the price you paid.