Do you think that coronavirus could affect numismatic market ?

The most important things in life is health not Monney or coins. Anyway this epidemic have great human and economic consequences and can lead to an economic crisis. The luxury market is down and numismatic like art can be included in luxury goods particularly non investment coins

The gold market go up and gold coins for investment at leat the one at stock exchange go up.

What will happens for non investment coins like antics coins or modern coins ?

Today we got a CNG auction and other auctions in US and Europe will run in March so I think it will be good to watch if European , Russian and Asian will still bids pushing up crazy prices or if the market will be down.

I will watch carefully before bidding as I am in Antics perhaps in future prices will go down and I keep the money I don’t need now to see if bargains are possible on very good coins too expensive for me.

Even dealers will need perhaps Monney and decreased stocks ??

what is your thinking about that ?

 

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You're up to your old antics again?

 

Some market maker investors make up prices artificially on some Monney and even common one in so called XF using PCGS holder sometimes, holder that we don’t like

 

Anyway do you think that coronavirus can affect the numismatic market up or down ? Of course it is a guest or a bet.

 

Swooosh.. Right over your head!

 

This might be an aswer to your questions..

My paper and coffee this morning..


It affects everything!

(Yes, I read the Wall Street Journal! )

 

Monney Monney Monney!

 

Short-term I think values will go down. Long-term who knows.

 

Probably the opposite with the blood bath the stock market has taken in the last two days from it. Metals will likely rise temporarily, people will probably panic sell stocks, long term the world will be back to normal like after SARS and the others

 

Yea but I view that more like a commodity investment - the metals value that is. As far as numismatic value I think people will slow their spending on the hobby.

Of course I could be wrong. Maybe people will look to collectibles as some sort of a security/investment alternative and drive prices up. It's all speculation.

 

Gold will raise at least at short term But considering the market of numismatic hobby looking I think

1) that medium quality like for a grade Fair to near VF or VF with of Center, roughness and so on the spending of collector on a budget will pludge for some time and price will go down and

2) high quality good VF to superb quality XF Greek, Roman etc... even modern without any flaws the price will stay high with still some battle considering that rich collectors want most desirable coins and 800 or 1000 usd or 10 000 usd is nothing for them they can afford it it is just pocket Monney. Of course is the auction house can’t propose them what they look for they will not buy.

So the most impact will be on VF coins with minor or major flaws and prices must be down with a shortage of buyers as buyers will prefer to keep cash or buy gold or even pay their bill facing a possible economic crisis like in 2008
.
We will see, a bit early but watching at the moment the CNG auction I feel this possibility , crazy price are still here and some nice coins only VF are win at bottom prices. But too early to analyse.

 

Well, if you want to take the really morbid perspective:

• There's a distinct possibility that the virus could infect more than 60% of the world's population.
• Death rates are quite low for younger patients, but rise sharply for the oldest, up to 8% for 70-79-year-olds and 14.8% for 80+-year-olds.
• Many collectors accumulate coins throughout life, releasing them to the market only upon their deaths.

So, how much would the market be affected if 10% of older collectors (who've presumably had the most time to collect coins of their dreams) suddenly have their stuff appear on the market?

 

Let's not make too much out of this virus. It's the hot story right now but it's not like the Spanish flu of 1918 which killed millions. Unless something changes, the vast majority of people who get this are sick for a little while and then they're back to normal. Tens of thousands of people die every year from the regular flu. I don't see this as a civilization-altering event.

 

That will not change the civization but it can result on an economic crisis. The market plunge view from US is the only visible sign and perhaps in some industries relying on subcontractors in Asia. There are no frontier against a virus so if US have an epidemic things can change very quickly even market.

Virus are not predictable or rational , it can stop after some months, it can mute to a higher mortality rate, we don’t know.

First what can affect first people in US is the stock exchange fall. For now the numismatic market seems strong as usual for today CNG sales. But we need to think about différents scenarios to be ready.

The psychological impact of a virus is very strong not rational for people.

 

I don't know man. Still too early to tell. I believe the flu has a death rate of 0.1% while this coronavirus is about 3.5%. Even if you were to compensate or adjust for poverty-stricken areas, that's still a substantial difference.

 

The expectation is that a vaccine will eventually be made but you are correct in that it could get worse first and the markets could be shook.

 

When the novel Coronavirus spreads through the US, it would likely take several months to run its course. By far the most affected would be the elderly and people with immunodeficiency disorders, and that could have a dramatic effect on the coin market since much of the collector base is older than 60. People would also panic and there will be a significant (but temporary) economic downturn as people refuse to go to work or can’t because they are sick.

If the death rate is as bad in the US as it is in China (unlikely), then much of the older collector base could be wiped out, and several dealers could also be put out of commission. This would cause a huge amount of coins to enter the market that will (temporarily?) cause values to dramatically decrease. On the other hand, the economic Medicare burden would be greatly relieved for a decade or two, which could result in some benefits.

Of course this assumes no vaccine, that the virus completely distributes itself to all people, and that the death rate is as bad as it is in China. Of course this is the worst-case scenario, so I am hoping it does not come to fruition. I highly doubt it will be remotely that bad.

 

I personaly do it will decrease the fake chinese coins entering the market.