Do Krause world coin values match other guides?

Discussion in 'World Coins' started by joecoincollect, Aug 28, 2016.

  1. joecoincollect

    joecoincollect Well-Known Member

    This may seem like a dumb question, but I just wanted to ask because I never seen a foreign price guide like britain's (spink?) or Canada's etc. I know world dealers at shows use Krause, but maybe that's because they're American and only Americans use Krause (?). I've heard Krause having way off prices, so that's what made me think that they're not doing their homework or make their price guide based on American interest and demand in world coins. I think some aspect of an American flavor to pricing is evident in their guide, since they only show values for most coins starting in Vf, as if no one collects problem free lower grade examples. For example, I picked up an 1836 English half crown in Vg/f for 25 dollars. The guide on ngc (based on Krause) only starts with an Vf at 125. Needless to say, the catalog is not helpful here. Thanks for reading
     
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  3. spirityoda

    spirityoda Coin Junky

    common dated coins are usually correct in Krause , but what I have seen for the rarer coins is way off to low.
     
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  4. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

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  5. sonlarson

    sonlarson World Silver Collector

    I agree with spirityoda that common dated coins are close. It's when you get to higher grades and lower mintage coins that you will find the priced are out of date. Not to criticize Krause but it would be an impossible task to update all pricing every year. The books are too massive. Not surprised to see you purchased a coin for less than the Krause value. That is because of demand. I have many coins I purchased for less than the "book" value. That doesn't mean I made a big score. It also doesn't mean I can sell my coin for the book value. An example: Krause list the Mexico 1920 Peso (KM#437) at $650 in Unc. I purchase a PCGS MS62 at well below that price. This is a coin that I searched for for many years and is a prized part of my collection. Would I sell it for $650? In a heartbeat. I'll find another. Could I sell it for $650? I doubt it.

    I also have several that I paid more for than the Krause "value" and feel I got a bargain.
     
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  6. mlov43

    mlov43 주화 수집가

    I've made some money off of the fact that collector-coin prices in one place are definitely way different from prices in another place on our planet.

    Take a look at Krause's SCWC's listing for key-date South Korean circulation coins, and look at the prices listed for the same coins in the DaeGwangsa or the O-Sung K&C catalogues from the same years. You will notice a radical difference. It used to be much a larger spread prior to the mid-2000s before Krause caught up to the overall realized price increases in world coins in general. Plenty a Korean buyer have turned very decent profits from buying such coins from (mostly) North American sellers online and reselling the coins in South Korea. I got in on a little of that action before most people got wise to the shift in demand/higher bids. Take a look at the price comparisons in this chart from 2011. Remember, there used to be a bigger difference in catalogue list prices:
    Screen Shot 2016-08-28 at 3.30.28 PM.png
     
  7. joecoincollect

    joecoincollect Well-Known Member

    Thanks for sharing. I'd imagine reselling where it's a better deal going on, so that makes sense. As for your chart, it shows Krause US value and the Korean W, but I don't know the exchange so it's kind of hard to visualize. Is Krause in general 5 times cheaper, 10, etc? Thamks
     
  8. joecoincollect

    joecoincollect Well-Known Member

    I know what you mean about getting good deals but it's really hard to say how good it is, because the market is much different out there. Is the market like this only here? Or do world coins sell for cheaper everywhere in general? I know mlov was saying Korean coins sell higher, but that Krause is catching on. If Krause is sort of accurate, I think it's mostly for lower value coins, not just common date. For example, I have a common date Denmark 2 krone, 1916, in AU/unc that should be 50-80 dollars I think. I got it for 20-30, and it sat like that for a while. So their price guide is off in many circumstances even for common dates, especially higher end ones. People simply don't pay what the guide says for common Uncs (ie not key dates, but maybe older, not saved to some extent, condition scarce, etc). Now, I don't know if this phenomenon is because US buyers are cheap (b/c they sense a lack of demand) or because Krause prices are off in general world wide. I think it's only accurate for lower value common dates, that's about it
     
  9. joecoincollect

    joecoincollect Well-Known Member

    Thanks. But the links you gave are for coins sold at auction, like scarcer coins, graded coins, and higher grade stuff. I collect mainly coins under 50-100 so Krause is probably all i have for world coins unless I can get a guide from another country. And so I'm back to trying to figure out the price of 1800 and 1900s coins that have no values in grades below VF. I'm also left wondering why world coins from 10-100 dollars in Krause generally sell for 20-50% less than Krause, especially if silver value makes up less or no percentage of coin's value. I guess Krause's resources are spent elsewhere rather than getting their world guide to more accurately reflect the market. I don't believe it's an arduous task generally, but maybe it would be if they only had a fraction of people work on it in comparison to the number working on US guide. How hard is it to cut prices 30-40% for 40-50% of coins in there? That's my thinking but it in any case they have a year or so to fix things before guides go out again. Perhaps some coins I'm wondering about are on these web sites you mentioned, so I'll check. Thanks
     
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2016
  10. Mat

    Mat Ancient Coincoholic

    Do what most of us ancient collectors do, let ebay be your guide. Find "sold" coins similar in condition and average out the prices they sold for. Might be a pain if it's many many coins, but it's closest to current market value then a book that's already outdated the day it's printed.
     
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  11. mlov43

    mlov43 주화 수집가

    The exchange is easy: if it says "350,000" in Won, that's AROUND 350 dollars (you can go down a bit to get the actual US dollar amount, but it's roughly like that). So for 30,000 won, it's $30. And so on.

    And there is no "general" comparison to Krause and Korean prices. It totally depends on the individual coin. But I often notice a two-fold price difference in realized prices between the key date pieces sold in North America-based online retailers and similar coins sold in Korea.

    Knowledge of ALL the markets in which World coins are bought and sold is quite elusive still.
     
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2016
  12. joecoincollect

    joecoincollect Well-Known Member

    Oh, Got it. Thanks. Yeah, all this is quite difficult to make out. I guess Krause is a good starting point, then ebay, then... Etc
     
  13. World Colonial

    World Colonial Active Member

    To the extent Krause agrees with home country price guides, it is either by accident or because Krause uses them as the source.

    For South Africa Union and ZAR, there is no similarity between Krause and the Hern Guide. Krause is either exactly or substantially the same between my 2010 and 1998 guides. (This is correct, the prices have not changed.)

    Online auctions occasionally list catalog using the local guide, such as Spink. One example I checked (once) was the 1952 6P. The price in "UNC" doesn't remotely coincide and though grading standards differs, I don't believe this is the reason for the difference.

    I would ignore both local guides and Krause, unless there is evidence it is based upon actual sales. Otherwise, it is just "made up".
     
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  14. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    The first thing you need to do is look in one of the Krause books and see who and what they use as their sources when determining the value of a given coin.

    Ya see, that's the thing with all price guides - what they actually base their listed values on. In other words, if the source is no good, then the listed value is no good.

    And there are only two good sources - just two - realized auction prices, and the electronic dealer networks. That's it, everything else is just smoke and mirrors.

    Something else you might want to look at that people often overlook - Krause lists values for US coins too. So look up some of them, and then go look at actual realized auction prices for the same coins.
     
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  15. cladking

    cladking Coin Collector

    Krause is less than worthless for post WW II coins.

    Your post is the first time I ever saw that the 10 w has value (as high as $350) in XF. I've probably sent some of these out in poundage because I didn't know and Krause isn't worth the paper they waste printing it.
     
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  16. joecoincollect

    joecoincollect Well-Known Member

    I appreciate the responses but I'm still a little confused. To me, Krause and other yearly price guides closer reflect US market prices than world coins. Let's say I take a standing liberty quarter common date, xf40, listed at 70 or so dollars. I'll see a lot of listings on ebay around that price, and perhaps many completed sales close to it. Now, if I take a common date 2 kroner from Denmark as I mentioned earlier, it lists at 50-60 in xf but I can get one online or at shows for 25-35. World coin sales under 50-100 dollars abound with examples like this wear coins sell significantly lower. I guess that because of lower demand, at least in the US. I've never sold on ebay over seas, nor do I buy overseas, but something tells me things may be quite different - more on a country by country basis rather than in general.
     
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  17. PaddyB

    PaddyB Eccentric enthusiast

    All printed guides are out of date as soon as they are printed, and at their best are only as good as the effort they put in.

    Use Krause, but more for the purposes of identification than price. Use Online sources for up to date prices.

    The Spink books in the UK are just as unreliable on prices. I am told they still only use realised prices at old-fashioned auctions and even then only update a small proportion of the book between each printing. They completely ignore Ebay and other online markets. EG: Early Victorian threepences made for the colonies - in Spink at Fine for £10 to £15. If you can find some of them in "good" at under £100 you are doing well!

    I am assuming most other guides around the world suffer from similar problems.
     
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  18. chrisild

    chrisild Coin Collector

    Here in Germany the Schön catalog is often used for world coins. There are three volumes - 19c, 20c and 21c - and the prices should, hmm, be handled with care. :) They are great when it comes to ID'ing coins and learning more about a specific issue. As for prices/values, such a catalog makes sense as a rough guideline. You can see, for example, that a certain coin is common and cheap when the date is X while the same coin with a Y date has a lower mintage and thus tends to be more expensive. But that is about it ...

    Christian
     
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  19. World Colonial

    World Colonial Active Member

    Its my belief that where world coins sell for at or near the Krause price, its usually because a dealer is able to get a buyer to pay the "retail" price. Neither has another reference point and most of the time, buyers don't know that the prices are "made up" either. This is almost certainly mostly for low value coins, low grade or not.

    There are also many coins just in my series where its almost certain there has been no recent sale and maybe never a public one. I assume this also applies to many other coins. Examples include most of the Peru pillar 4R in XF and the 1931 South Africa silver circulation strikes.

    As to price spreads between actual and guides for US and world, I don't believe its because of lower demand for world coins but because US coins sell far more frequently and both parties are more aware of this data.

    There is certainly a difference between sales prices for world coins sold in the US versus the home country and that is due to liquidity. Depending upon the coin, it may sell for more or less in the US. But the same will be equally true of US coins sold elsewhere. Above relatively nominal prices such as $100, I don't believe there is any market for most US coins anywhere near the current value. Collectors elsewhere are not about to pay more for US coins that their own, unless they can later sell it to a US buyer.
     
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  20. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    And what exactly is it that you are confused about ?

    Person after person has told you that the values listed in Krause are no good, do you just not believe that to be true or what ? I don't think that is the case because you quote examples of it yourself. So you already know the values are no good.

    Or is it that you just don't understand why their values are no good ?

    There's several reasons. For one the Krause books are as a general rule only reprinted/updated every 3 years or so. Sometimes they have gone 4 or 5 years before a new edition was released. That said, even when a new edition is released, the prices and values in that edition may be exactly the same they were 10 years previously. That is because Krause does not update every single coin in their books each time they do an update.

    Another reason, as I mentioned before, is who Krause uses as the source for their listed values. As a general rule, they ask the same people over and over again every time they do an update. They have a list of dealers that they go to to get those values, then they simply print them in their catalog. Whatever that dealer tells them is the value for a given coin, that's what they put in their catalog.

    Now, how much do you about dealers and their asking prices for given coins ? If you've ever done any research what you would find is that with any given coin it is quite common for 5 different dealers, or 10 different dealers for that matter, to all have radically different asking prices for the very same coin in the very same grade. And here's an example of what I mean by radically different. Dealer 1 might be asking $75 for a given coin, dealer 2 $125, dealer 7 $250 - and all for the same given coin in the same grade. And all the others are somewhere in between. And they don't ask all 10 of the dealers and take an average, they ask 1 and use his number. So if they ask #7 and he says $250, but #1 has the exact same coin for $75 - how much is the coin actually worth ?

    You see, dealer asking prices are meaningless when it comes to determining the value of a coin. The dealer can ask anything he wants. He may be upside down on the coin and refusing to come down because he made a mistake and paid too much for it. This kind of thing happens every day. So he'll hold onto the coin until some buyer comes along and makes the same mistake he did.

    Couple those two things together, along with market prices that can radically change in a few months let alone a few years, and you begin to understand why the Krause values are no good.

    As for different degrees of disparity from country to country, good lord, there's often huge differences of disparity for the coins of the same country, let alone two different countries in the Krause catalogs.

    Bottom line the values in Krause are no good. You should never trust them or have any confidence in them. Nor should you in any other price guide for they all suffer from the same things.

    Let me give you an example. Here's the listed values from 10 different price guides for a given coin in MS65. It takes 2 sceen shots to get them all.

    upload_2016-8-30_11-16-41.png


    upload_2016-8-30_11-17-1.png


    Look how wide the variances in values are between different price guides - from $330 to $530 - all for the same exact coin. Not just another like it but that specific coin. So which one do ya trust ? What's that coin actually worth ? You have no idea because you can't have any idea given that information.

    Now the same thing happens if you throw the Krause value in there, but it's gonna be different than any of those. Maybe hugely different.

    Are you beginning to get the picture ?

    But if you look at actual realized prices for that same coin, same grade, you see a completely different picture.


    upload_2016-8-30_11-26-43.png


    THAT you can work with ! That has a price variance of $60 from high to low - not $200. That tells you something, gives you a real world idea of the value of the coin.

    So take all the values in all the price guides and just throw 'em out. The only information that is of any real use to you are actual realized auction prices. Everything else is just numbers that comes out of somebody's head.
     
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  21. cladking

    cladking Coin Collector

    I don't believe any excuse is possible for listing a coin for $1.50 that someone else has listed at $350. Obviously if anyone has a 1970 coin listed in XF for $350 it can't be a common coin but Krause lists it for $1.50 right along with all the junk.

    Even coins I've used as examples of how bad Krause really is haven't been fixed.

    Of course it's hard work to make a good catalog with reasonable pricing but Krause obviously isn't up to the job.
     
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