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<p>[QUOTE="MentalVirus, post: 1471258, member: 33177"]Sorry but in my mind that absolutely means it would have to meet or beat inflation. Or by definition, it has absolutely not retained it's 'value'. Value is buying power, not a dollar amount. Fiat currencies will eventually always go to their intrinsic value which is pretty much zero. Some just do it quicker than others. Well if in 30 years, $670 dollars only has the buying power that $275 dollars does today then has it retained it's 'value'? I think most reasonable people wouldn't have to deliberate very long on this one. </p><p><br /></p><p>It is an interesting topic and ideas and good reading in this thread. Aside from amassing a pretty good collection of silver, both 'junk' and collectable precious metal coins, I have looked elsewhere. Places other than the US. I think everyone is correct that demand drives the price or value of coins. Well where does that demand come from? Aside from very rare/expensive coins I personally think a very large portion of it come from the middle and upper middle class! This is were I imagine most of us fall. Well what is happening to the middle class in the US? And what will the size of the middle class be in 10, 20, 30 years from now? It appears to me that, for the recent past, the middle class has really been the ones getting the beat down. The wealthy are as wealthy as ever and our trend towards a welfare state and handout for everyone, including those that might just not feel like pulling their weight (also a growing segment of the US). Who's footing the bill? The middle class is taking the biggest beating. I think that alone has a possibility to cause some of the demand to go down in the future, at least from people with in the US! Hobbies like collecting SL dimes might not seem so important and 'fun' of you can't afford to put food on the table, fill your gas tank or buy clothes for your kids. In fact things like this will also potentially cause more supply as people sell collections to make ends meet. Maybe this will all be a faded distant memory in 20 years but times are tough for a lot of people and it may very well get worse and last for quite a time.</p><p><br /></p><p>That brings me to my next idea. If demand is what drives the prices and the middle to upper middle class provide the backbone and majority of this demand, then WHERE is a good place to collect? Think of third world or developing counties that are (or have been) predominantly in poverty but are quickly and constantly growing economically? Don't these countries also have drastically expanding middle classes that all of a sudden aren't so worried about putting food on the table? That all of a sudden have something called disposable income? The capacity for people to become collectors is expanding quickly in some places while it may very well be decreasing here. Now one thing for US coins is that they are popular the world around and demand from these 'other' places may very well maintain the prices of US coins and even help increase them over time, hard to say either way. But I will say that there are 'other' places like this with coins that are relatively dirt cheap in excellent condition even though the have extremely low mintage's compared to what most here think are low. Major circulated coins with mintage's in the 1 to 2 million range, silver coins (non circulated) with mintage's as low as 800, 1500, 2000, 5000 are not hard to find. It does not take much of a demand increase (relatively) to create a very healthy return on your investment if you are talking about mintage's this low! Relatively modest increases in demand will send the prices through the roof. I know that Chinese coins are getting more popular and I suspect that this has something to do with it. I have other ideas/places and thoughts that interest me and that I keep an eye on. Some I genuinely enjoy collecting and might never get rid of but others I watch because I think there is a lot of potential in the future. And hey, if they are silver and you can buy them for not much over spot and they have relatively very low mintage's, how can you possibly go wrong? There's a good chance that silver alone will maintain it's value if not better down the road anyway.</p><p><br /></p><p>MV[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="MentalVirus, post: 1471258, member: 33177"]Sorry but in my mind that absolutely means it would have to meet or beat inflation. Or by definition, it has absolutely not retained it's 'value'. Value is buying power, not a dollar amount. Fiat currencies will eventually always go to their intrinsic value which is pretty much zero. Some just do it quicker than others. Well if in 30 years, $670 dollars only has the buying power that $275 dollars does today then has it retained it's 'value'? I think most reasonable people wouldn't have to deliberate very long on this one. It is an interesting topic and ideas and good reading in this thread. Aside from amassing a pretty good collection of silver, both 'junk' and collectable precious metal coins, I have looked elsewhere. Places other than the US. I think everyone is correct that demand drives the price or value of coins. Well where does that demand come from? Aside from very rare/expensive coins I personally think a very large portion of it come from the middle and upper middle class! This is were I imagine most of us fall. Well what is happening to the middle class in the US? And what will the size of the middle class be in 10, 20, 30 years from now? It appears to me that, for the recent past, the middle class has really been the ones getting the beat down. The wealthy are as wealthy as ever and our trend towards a welfare state and handout for everyone, including those that might just not feel like pulling their weight (also a growing segment of the US). Who's footing the bill? The middle class is taking the biggest beating. I think that alone has a possibility to cause some of the demand to go down in the future, at least from people with in the US! Hobbies like collecting SL dimes might not seem so important and 'fun' of you can't afford to put food on the table, fill your gas tank or buy clothes for your kids. In fact things like this will also potentially cause more supply as people sell collections to make ends meet. Maybe this will all be a faded distant memory in 20 years but times are tough for a lot of people and it may very well get worse and last for quite a time. That brings me to my next idea. If demand is what drives the prices and the middle to upper middle class provide the backbone and majority of this demand, then WHERE is a good place to collect? Think of third world or developing counties that are (or have been) predominantly in poverty but are quickly and constantly growing economically? Don't these countries also have drastically expanding middle classes that all of a sudden aren't so worried about putting food on the table? That all of a sudden have something called disposable income? The capacity for people to become collectors is expanding quickly in some places while it may very well be decreasing here. Now one thing for US coins is that they are popular the world around and demand from these 'other' places may very well maintain the prices of US coins and even help increase them over time, hard to say either way. But I will say that there are 'other' places like this with coins that are relatively dirt cheap in excellent condition even though the have extremely low mintage's compared to what most here think are low. Major circulated coins with mintage's in the 1 to 2 million range, silver coins (non circulated) with mintage's as low as 800, 1500, 2000, 5000 are not hard to find. It does not take much of a demand increase (relatively) to create a very healthy return on your investment if you are talking about mintage's this low! Relatively modest increases in demand will send the prices through the roof. I know that Chinese coins are getting more popular and I suspect that this has something to do with it. I have other ideas/places and thoughts that interest me and that I keep an eye on. Some I genuinely enjoy collecting and might never get rid of but others I watch because I think there is a lot of potential in the future. And hey, if they are silver and you can buy them for not much over spot and they have relatively very low mintage's, how can you possibly go wrong? There's a good chance that silver alone will maintain it's value if not better down the road anyway. MV[/QUOTE]
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