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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;GDJMSP, post: 3473675, member: 112&quot;]Yeah, maybe. But, it could just as easily be - maybe 0.5x, 0.25x, or even 0.10x. Or maybe even less than that. And that&#039;s the thing, if you&#039;re going to speculate then you have to speculate in both directions in order to acknowledge all possibilities.</p><p><br /></p><p>However, if one checks all auction records, ads in numismatic publications, going back as far as you can go, and pay attention to all of the prices - a picture begins to emerge. For example, when even the oldest records show that the coin was disproportionately expensive then it becomes reasonable to conclude that the coin has always been scarce. And if it was scarce 50 or 100 years ago, and there have been no major hoards found or discovered in that entire time, then it is reasonable to conclude that it is still scarce today.</p><p><br /></p><p>Bowers, who is arguably the most well informed person on the subject estimates that between 8,500 and 15,000 examples of the &#039;89-CC exist in all grades. And that includes all those that have not been graded by a TPG. </p><p><br /></p><p>And if as you say NGC and PCGS combined have graded 14k of them - the numbers fit together pretty well don&#039;t they ? And that&#039;s even accounting for re-grades to a degree at least. And I say that for this reason. Between 1986 and the end of 2003 PCGS had graded 2,200 of the coins, total. That&#039;s 17 years worth of submissions. But by the beginning of 2006 that number had jumped to 3,300. So in 2 years the number increases by roughly 50%. A large part of that has to be re-grades for it is completely unreasonable to assume that 1,000 of these scarce coins just suddenly materialized on the market in such a short time period when they never had before. Today, PCGS alone has graded roughly 9,000 of the coins, with NGC making up the balance of the 14k total. </p><p><br /></p><p>So, between the end of 2003 and the beginning of 2019 the number of coins graded by PCGS has quadrupled. Lets call it 13 years. But don&#039;t forget it took 17 years just to get to 2,200. And the scarcity, and value, of the coins was just as well known in 1986 as it is today. Of course you have to ask, did some coins previously ungraded come onto the market for the various reasons coins always do ? Of course they did, but there&#039;s no way to know how many. But we must acknowledge that some did, perhaps even a large percentage of that number.</p><p><br /></p><p>Given what we know to be true, any way ya look at it the numbers - Bowers&#039; estimate and TPG pops - still fit pretty well together. Between the low and high ends of Bowers&#039; estimates, the TPG pops, including re-grades, are pretty well covered. So I find it more than reasonable for those estimates to be pretty realistic. </p><p><br /></p><p>Can you still speculate ? Sure, but that&#039;s all it can be - speculation. And that&#039;s why we go with what we know, as opposed to speculation.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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