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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Vess1, post: 3472929, member: 13650&quot;]Excellent topic!&nbsp;&nbsp; I just posted another thread today in US Coin forum about how PCGS comes up with their survival estimates.&nbsp;&nbsp; I&#039;m looking at an early branch mint dime that NGC has graded a total of 47 in all grades and PCGS has graded a total of 183 in all grades.&nbsp; &nbsp; The original mintage was 1.17 million but PCGS estimates that only 300 survive in any grade!&nbsp; Given the fact that 230 have been graded by the big two alone, I&#039;d say there&#039;s way more than 300 available out there but no way to know.&nbsp; Most are very worn.&nbsp;&nbsp; Only around 15 MS examples are known to exist.&nbsp; Anyway...</p><p><br /></p><p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; As far as trying to compare how many are submitted vs. minted for moderns to come up with useful percentages, the info is probably not worth using.&nbsp; Waaaay too many factors.&nbsp; </p><p><br /></p><p>&nbsp; Lets look at the recently minted 2016 Anniversary 24k gold quarters.&nbsp; (I submitted one myself and I know someone else who did as well.)&nbsp;&nbsp; It&#039;s probably safe to assume every single one they made is safely stashed somewhere.&nbsp;&nbsp; (I got a SP70 but it doesn&#039;t even raise the value that much.&nbsp; They just have neat slab labels for them).&nbsp; </p><p>&nbsp; </p><p>&nbsp; So the total mintage for these special gold quarters was 91,752.&nbsp;&nbsp; Between NGC and PCGS, 22.6% of the total mintage has been submitted to them for grading!</p><p><br /></p><p>&nbsp; Now we look at your 1889-CC Morgan.&nbsp; 350k minted.&nbsp; Highly desirable and a very valuable Morgan so there&#039;s a major incentive to get them graded.&nbsp; Far more incentive than 2016 Anniversary quarters.&nbsp; </p><p><br /></p><p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Between PCGS and NGC, counting PLs, only 4% of the mintage has been submitted and surely some were cracked and re-sent in.&nbsp;&nbsp; That&#039;s a little over 14k of them.&nbsp;&nbsp; Who knows how many were melted and lost for all time?&nbsp;&nbsp; Now there&#039;s a lot of people who think grading is a rip off and will never submit them but value wise it seems to be the smartest thing to do for this coin.&nbsp; &nbsp; So it&#039;s just an educated guess how many more loose ones may be floating around out there.&nbsp; &nbsp; Maybe 2x?&nbsp; Maybe 3x the number submitted?&nbsp;&nbsp; 10x?&nbsp; &nbsp; Maybe a third of them are still floating around.&nbsp; That&#039;d be believable but I doubt many collectors fully realize this.</p><p><br /></p><p>&nbsp; As time goes on, somehow a lot gets lost.&nbsp; Some of it melted.&nbsp; Some stuff has gotten so bad it should be melted.&nbsp; Some of it shipped over-seas.&nbsp; Lost in the ground.&nbsp; Thrown away.&nbsp;&nbsp; Morgans circulated more out west so there&#039;s a good chance all those were sent out into circulation compared to later issues.&nbsp; I&#039;d guess a huge amount of the 1921 Morgans were probably melted to be turned into 1921 Peace dollars.&nbsp; I think the Pittman Act was even melting them to produce bullion to ship to Europe to help re-build after the war.&nbsp;&nbsp; As someone else said they believe the later years of the Morgan mintages took the biggest hit but no ledger was kept so bags of anything could have been melted.&nbsp; It was over half the total mintage of the Morgans as I believe you stated.&nbsp; Just no way to know which ones took the biggest hit.&nbsp;&nbsp; I was pondering this 10 years ago.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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