Current Market for Russian Coins

GDJMSP - we will see. For a coin price collapse we need to see sellers of top end coins agreeing to sell at lower prices. In my area of collecting, I have no luck buying anything of great quality for a bargain, on the contrary - why? Sellers have strong hands and doesn't agree to sell. Auction houses see reserves set on coins. Common material is a different story.

 

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The biggest difference between the US coins market and the world coin market is the age of the collectors. Here in the US, the age dynamic will increasingly become a headwind as there are not nearly enough new collectors coming on board to absorb the copious amounts of material being liquidated by older collectors or their heirs. This phenomenon has been made even more pronounced by the widening of the income gap in this country. While the middle class continues to get exterminated in this country unabated (while everyone is distracted by clerks who refuse issue marriage licenses), the rest of the world's middle-class is surging ahead, with nearly a billion people who were destined for a life of poverty only a decade ago, now entering the ranks of the middle-class. It has been an uneven process, and some areas of the world have made far more progress than others. But make no mistake about it, many of the new members of the middle-class in southeast Asia have gotten the collecting bug, and their influence on the market is sure to put a floor under nearly all world coins, as many of these same collectors don't limit themselves to strictly coinage of the country they are a citizen of, but instead collect on a world-wide basis much as world collectors in the United States do.

 

princeofwaldo - you bring up some very good points and solid analysis as always. It will be interesting to see the upcoming auction house dynamics. I predict reduced material, higher reserves and holdback on major collections coming out to market. Consignors of foreign material may opt to hand theirs off to foreign auction houses. The US coin market may be in for a rougher ride, especially given the decline in the collector base (young people preferring the iPAD) or weakened middle class. The dollar strength relative to foreign currency compared to weakness a few years ago (Euro being 1.1 vs 1.45 to $ now). I am not aware of a strong US coin focused collector base overseas. Time will tell. Auction house and leading dealer messaging should be followed.

 

Gonna skip the political part of your post and just focus on this...

I was reading some numismatic history recently, and came across some articles published by collectors in the 1920's. No joke, they said nearly the exact same thing as you, nearly word for word.

So, collectors have been worried about this for a hundred years, and it really hasn't been a problem. The hobby has grown and continues to grow. I'm not terribly worried.

 

The real high end collectors do not spend their time on forums

 

Collecting four figure coins that become five figure coins is a lot more fun.

 

I collect pre WWI silver world crowns mostly European. I can definitely say the prices have being going up for the past 3 years since i started buying coins from major auction houses. Even the prices have gone up compared some of the auction this April and pre long beach auctions coming up this month.

 

Although today's economy hasn't been good for middle class disposable income, was it really much better during the 1930's through 60's when the hobby was rapidly growing in the United States? It's surprising to me that commemorative coins experienced their first boom in the 30's when we weren't even close to being out of the depression. Apparently people still found money to spend on coins.

I agree that the growth of the middle class worldwide is a game changer, along with the advent of internationally accessible auction sites supported by cheap digital photography. I wonder how much this new middle class will drive demand for US coins even if Americans lose interest? Does anyone have any idea how much current demand for our coins comes from overseas?

BTW I am really enjoying reading this thread. I didn't expect to generate so much discussion with my original question.

 

I collect HRE Crowns and see very few come up for sale at the higher grades and if they do, they are reserved at retail+ levels. At the ANA, I had more material of my own than dealers combined. To me this may indicate a slow market where consignments are held back. As I believe collectors of these are mostly collectors rather than investors, they are not sold. However, when looking at Kunker auctions overseas top material goes through the roof and this with a strong dollar.

I am not as familiar with US coin collectors outside of the US. I am sure its accretive as crown collectors include US type specimens in their set, however not sure if its a systematic collecting theme. At the ANA I was amazed at how "commoditized" US coin sales have become - I sat near a US dealer table and all I heard was PCGS vs NGC, CAC or no CAC etc. Prices were quoted off a sheet with less regard to the coin itself. The population of these coins is very broad and one can build a very nice starter set off Ebay. To me, this seems far more of a sensitive market.

Time will tell yet good points here by everyone.

 

That's an interesting observation. It would make sense that type coins, especially larger crown sized ones, would have more of a following overseas. The market for key dates and mintmarks on the other hand would be more domestic. Just like I couldn't see myself putting together a full set of German 10 pfennig pieces or British pennies.

 

Here is a major South Korean retailer who has 1,456 US coins, and 632 US banknotes in his inventory, out of an inventory that specializes in Korean coins and notes. He has about half as many Japanese coins and notes in his inventory (798), and half as many as that for Chinese coins and notes. He has far fewer coins for sale from other countries. He has many more world banknotes, as it seems Koreans are attracted by South American, African, European and other Asian notes that are "pretty" and colorful with unique designs.

This retailer exclusively sells to Koreans, and there is no way to purchase from his store, or online, other than with the use of a Korea-based credit card or an account drawing from a Korean bank. There is not an English (or any other language) mirror site for this online retail store.
Here's just his US coin inventory:
http://sujipbank.com/shop/goods/goods_list.php?category=004005

So, there obviously IS evidence of an appetite for US numismatics over there. At least in that country...

And as for the US coin market being "far more sensitive," I would have to agree. Micro-graded, micro-priced, and quite commoditized. Much more sensitive to the "overdue corrections".

 

may I know the price of Russian coin, edited

 

GDJMSP - I say revisit this thread when a major correction happens. I would love to buy 17th century MS-65 Talers for hundreds of dollars. I just doubt sellers will sell at these levels - there are strong hands holding those. All you will see is high reserves set or no consignments.

 

Let's place a virtual bet then. You are talking a much smaller universe of supply and consignors - no one is a pushover there. These are not Morgan Dollars PCGS CAC Certified, you are looking at hundreds at best.

 

Will do!