Current Market for Russian Coins

Considering that the world market for Russian coins has been red hot during the past several years, I was wondering how the recent economic turmoil is affecting prices. My understanding is that demand inside of Russia helped drive prices up worldwide as more Russians had the disposable income to spend on coins. Now that the ruble has lost so much of its value and real wages are declining, are coin prices also being driven down?

Or maybe I am underestimating demand from other countries, as Russian numismatics has so much to offer to all of us around the world.

Perhaps one of our Russian members such as Siberian Man could share what they are seeing in their local coin shops?

 

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Well... it's an interesting question. I would devide my answer into two parts.
1. Russian coins has the same cost as few years ago. Especially copper coins. The reason is simple: coins find by means of the metaldetector. There is a lot of them. And that is whe they are not expensive.
2. World coins (not Russian). The prices significantly grew. The reason is simple too: we're got such coins for euro and US dollars. The cost of these currencies increased approximately by 80% (in relation to Russian ruble).

 

I obviously can't speak about the market in Russia, but I have been observing a number of auctions for Russian coins (particularly Stacks, Heritage, and Ebay). As some of you may know, I am a huge fan of prooflike coins. In the mid-to-late 19th century, the Russian mints produced some beautiful prooflike coinage. I've been trying to acquire a piece or two for a while now. Over the past couple of years, the market has been red-hot for these - but it seems to have been cooling off lately.

 

Thanks guys, I appreciate your feedback. I can see why common metal detecting finds would be priced in rubles while foreign coins would go for world market prices at current exchange rates.

I'm interested more specifically in "mid range" coins ($250 and below) as there are some, such as the 1913 Romanov ruble as well as other imperial and early Soviet pieces, that I have always wanted. On one hand it would be nice to find some bargains but I wouldn't like to buy and have prices keep dropping. If the demand for such material is coming mostly from the Russian market, then prices would be tied to the ruble. However, if the demand is worldwide then it would seem they should hold their value.

BTW, the Russian economy is affecting my family not just in the price of coins, as my in laws live in St. Petersburg and things aren't as easy as they used to be. If what they are telling me is any indication then I doubt that middle class people have as much money to spend on coins...

 

Still a fraction of the US coins market cost in terms of purchasing power. All depends on global economies being robust and US collectors being priced out of the US coin market

 

One interesting thing I've noticed is that my eBay coin sales to Russia have really collapsed. A few years ago I was selling a lot of coins to Russia, and now I hardly sell any there. I don't know if it's because of their economy, the current worsening in relations between our countries or some of both.

 

How much of the overall increase is due to sites like Ebay that allow ordinary people like Hiddendragon to sell coins all over the world? World coins now have greater liquidity than they did before which should make people more willing to buy them.

 

Trying to predict the future is very difficult. I recently bid on a Roman solidus of my first name "John" (act. Johannes) which previously sold about 8 years ago at auction. The piece resold just this Spring and brought almost exactly 4X the 2007 price! Of course stuff in NAC is always super expensive.

Recently I bought a Brazilian Colonial copper coin of which I liked the history. Despite the fact that Brazil is entering a major recession, I was forced to pay 9X the price one of these sold for (same MS grade) in the Irving Goldman collection in '02 -- and that one had a pedigree! Still a Stack's piece sold for about the same as mine in 2012 so there was no great increase since then.

Many world coins are quite rare compared to US coins which I feel are horribly overpriced. Actually many better US coins have seemed to hit a plateau pricewise. I would love to hear GDJMSP's thinking on why world coins are due for a decrease. I always say to myself "no more high quality rare world coins", I'm just going to buy scrap silver half dollars instead. Then I run into a nice unc 1844 Montevideo Peso; a very neat & historically important coin of South America & I just can't say "no".

 

Obviously, I can't speak for Doug (and really, we disagree far more often than not). However, in this case, I'll agree that for the most part the world market has gone mostly in the upward direction for a rather long time.

I'm guessing his call for a correction comes from the basic principle that "what goes up, must come down." There's a similar principle in the stock market, although the two aren't necessarily analagous. A period of prolonged buying in most markets is often followed by a period of selling, taking profits, re-adjusting, and cooling off. In the coin market, sustained hype for a decade or more is going to be followed by people losing interest.

The difference here is that with the ubiquity of the internet and the increase in certification services, a whole new market for world coins is opening up. American collectors who never considered buying darkside are now adding these pieces to their collection. Foreign collectors who previously lived in small markets, or didn't have access to the wide world of numismatics are finding themselves in the middle of a treasure trove of information and availability. I would say that Russia definitely fits that bill.

In summary, while there has been an expansion of the world market (and I think there will continue to be), I think you'll find that there will be ups and downs in the market for darkside just as there is in the US numismatic market. There will be regional variations, and there will always be areas that are hot and cold. But now that the internet has made collecting and sharing information so much easier, the world market for coins will continue to grow.

 

As someone who is involved almost exclusively in world coins, I find it hard to make a blanket statement about past increases and future corrections. "World coins" is not a single country. Russia - the market surged some years back, then corrected itself a few years ago. Same thing for the Chinese coins market. And currently the Venezuelan coins market is cooling down some from a tremendous surge over the past 5 or so years.
So the increases and corrections have already been happening. It's not accurate to speak of "world coins" as a single entity in this respect.

 

After doing some more research I'm realizing that we can't even speak of "Russian coins" or "Chinese coins" as a single entity. For instance, today I looked at recent Ebay sales for a couple of base metal Russian mint sets (1995 and 1996) whose prices had shot up into the hundreds of dollars and found that they had dropped like a rock. Older coins like the 1913 ruble, on the other hand, don't seem to have fallen nearly as much.

If the demand for the mint sets is more limited to the Russian market and is subject to speculation, then it's not surprising that they aren't holding their value now that the Russian economy is tanking. And if older material has more of a following in the rest of the world then perhaps it is less volatile?

 

Within the last 10 years or so, essentially any Chinese or Russian coins including low grade coins, including junk coins were on the upward trend. In particular, many coins issued prior to 1950s were very undervalued.

Fast forward now with the global slowdown, while one might be under the impression that the general public may not be spending as much - this still has not affected scarce / rare coins. While I would agree that prices of lower grade coins have slowed down, if not dropped, I still see no evidence of high grade coins sold at a bargain.

Soviet mint set prices have still not dropped too much in my opinion however there was a drop in price early in the year. For instance the key 1970 mint set was sold at a record 1500 USD last year and there were a couple sold early in the year for mere 1000 USD. I believe the last mint set was sold for around 1200 USD. This is still some serious money.

On the other hand, a common bimetallic Russian 10 ruble coin that are currently circulating used to sell for some silly money, like 5 - 10 dollars each. Now it is a lot harder to make such sales.

I believe at this moment, sellers are not willing to sell coins at a big loss in particular less common types.

 

Inclined to agree with you. There have been several big moves in world coins, but they have been focused on different countries at different times. Russia hit a top in 2008 and has already seen a big correction. Not so much in price, --though prices have indeed come down-- but in volume. At least until recently, in the past 6 months the market has at least stabilized I think. For modern Chinese the top was, --no question about it-- 2011. There are several other countries that have had a good run then pulled back, notably Brazil, but even in the absence of economic turmoil there, the market has seen a ton of Brazilian coins hit the market in the past 2 years. Especially late 18th to early 19th century gold.

As for an imminent pull-back across the board, I just don't see that happening. It's a bit like looking at old auction records of US material from 1918 and saying to yourself, if I just wait a little longer the price of Pan Pacific coins will come back down to issue price.

 

I see a clear divide in common coins vs. rare or conditionally scarce coins. I have not found any bargains and see sellers not capitulating in price when selling these.

 

GDJMSP - I see 1-2 coins per auction that are unique. I disagree with your premise.

 

Doug,
But don't you think there already HAS been a correction? Personally I think there has been, but maybe not of the "significant" category or "overdue" category.