CT RESEARCH #1

Mike,
When I read the first few sentences of your initial post, Facebook came to mind. Then I kept reading the disclaimers in your 1st post and it seemed more like Facebook within the last week.
After reading thru your follow-up responses, you sound a lot less like Facebook and lot more like just a guy with a strong passion for statistical analysis.

I’ll be curious to see your results and conclusions. And please don’t take my comments as sarcasm. I am genuinely interested.

With that said, I’d also say that numismatics’ influence on Financial Systems is somewhere between very minor and no effect whatsoever. However, I’ll also add that it’s moving even further towards ‘no effect’, for at least 2 reasons. 1) The next time you visit a coin show, take a look at the demographics. You’ll likely find the average attendee to be in HIS (not hers) late 50’s or early 60’s. I believe a generation on a timeline is considered to be about 20 years, so (again - on average) we’re missing a strong representation from almost 2 entire generations from our hobby.
2) Our ‘financial systems’ today are almost entirely influenced by notes, bonds, derivatives, contracts and other similar “promise to pay” instruments - as opposed to trading actual physical, ‘hard’ assets. Just about every numismatic transaction today is based on the latter, so by definition, numismatics will be less influential on financial systems as a whole, than say it might have been 40 years (2 generations?!?) ago.

 

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I agree, I hope you share your results of these "polls" with us once you've compiled them. Would be interesting to see. I've been known to enjoy statistics on occasion as well, aced my college statistics course

 

point noted

 

Thank you for your insight

 

Well I take into account the voting and the opinions of each person. It is a combination of the 2

 

I am not only using "polls"
I am researching historical evidence by reliable internet research.
I am using both and other methods to create a final conclusion

 

I appreciate your explanation of why you're conducting these polls and doing the analysis. Years ago, I worked on a project that incorporated survey data. I was shocked to find out the amount of work that went into designing the questions, right down to the specific wording and question sequence. Differences in some of these parameters could greatly influence which statistical methods were used to analyze the data. Fortunately, we had people on the team who did this for a living. I’m not going to pretend I understand all of this, but I did learn enough to know that if you truly want to make meaningful conclusions, you need to know something about the science of surveys.

Here are a couple articles I quickly pulled up in an internet search. If you’ve never considered the details that go into polling (beyond the statistical analysis), you may find it interesting
http://www.pewresearch.org/methodology/u-s-survey-research/questionnaire-design/
http://www.pewresearch.org/methodology/u-s-survey-research/collecting-survey-data/
https://academic.oup.com/poq/article/68/1/109/1855073

As someone who enjoys charting, plotting and throwing an occasional data set in Minitab to see what it tells me, I’m with you. I see no issues with doing it for fun, but depending on what you want to do with the results, I just want to make sure that you’re aware that the conclusions you make from the data may have serious statistical flaws.

 

This poll will close on Nov 29, 2059 at 1:44 PM.

I'm glad I got my vote in before the deadline

 

I didn't mean to insinuate that you were using only polls, just pointing out that I'm looking forward to seeing the results of your efforts.

 

I voted no impact.

 

Do you have any certain explanation?

 

Ill definitely read those articles. Thank you

 

Ha ha. I will probaly wait a week to get all the polling information, kept it for that long just for fun

 

Suggested Assigned homework for next research project: Show your love of statistics with the multitude of data sets published in the Annual Director of the Mint reports.

Is the U.S. Mint operations in a downward trend? What is the sales trend for bullion (gold, silver, platinum, and palladium) over the data set period? What about the numismatic product sales? What is the transfer trend in the Public Enterprise Fund (PEF) to the Treasury General Fund?

Recent U.S. Mint reports (2001 - 2017)
https://www.usmint.gov/about/reports

Older U.S. Mint reports (1872 through 1982 ... yes! 110 years of U.S. Mint data)
https://catalog.hathitrust.org/Record/007822982

Find the missing years of U.S. Mint reports (1983 through 2000). It's out there on the internet, I just pulled a 1988 report for my independent research...

You have your assignment, dazzle us with your selected topic(s) and finding(s)...

 

Challenge accepted

 

Compared to GDP, the coin market is too small to make any impact.