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Message:: [QUOTE="Hobo, post: 651795, member: 11521"]It depends. If you randomly crack out coins blindly hoping they will upgrade I would think your success rate would be extremely low. But if you only crack out those coins that you think are undergraded your success rate will be directly related to your coin grading skills. The better you are at coin grading the higher your success rate will be.  If you plan to play the crackout game I recommend that you pick your coins so you maximize your upside and minimize your downside. What I mean is pick a coin that jumps up substantially in price at the next higher grade but does not decrease much in price at the next lower grade.  For example, suppose you want to play the crackout game with Morgan Dollars. Let's also assume that you can buy and sell at Grey Sheet Bid.  You decide to try your hand with an 1892-CC. You check the Grey Sheet and find the following values (Bid): MS-60 - $1250; MS-63 - $1530; MS-64 - $2200; MS-65 - $7850. There is no value given for MS-62 but you can straight-line interpolate $1425.  In this case your target grade is MS-63. If you guess wrong and your coin drops a grade to MS-62 you will lose $105. But if you guess right and your coin bumps up to MS-64 you stand make $670.  In reality you will probably have to pay a premium over "book" for a PQ coin and that will increase your downside and cut into your upside. But if your grading skills are good enough that you can consistently spot undergraded coins you should do well.  I know a dealer who cracks out thousands and thousands and thousands of coins a year. His grading bill is more than most people make in a year but he makes VERY good money doing this. Sometimes he has to resubmit a coin 10 times or more to get the bump but when the potential increase in price is $10,000 or so he does not complain about the resubmission fees.[/QUOTE]

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