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Message:: [QUOTE="chip, post: 1742935, member: 19122"]A Little while back I visited a local flea market, where they often have old coins from estates. The prices on those coins are usually on the high end of the scale, and the grading a bit more liberal than my own. But the prices are marked and they do have sales, the last one was a 20% off sale. There in the catalog of pages was an 1873 trade dollar that looked about a ms-64, clearly marked counterfeit.  Then this week a poster on the coin forums posted a picture of a trade dollar that looked exactly the same, sameyear and everything. That coin was being sold on ebay, which is where I suspect this dealer acquired his counterfeit. Though the dealer was not around to answer any questions about it. The flea market faux trade dollar was marked at 50 dollars, which would have been 40 with the discount, I think I would have paid a dollar for it just for an example, but I can understand if you got burned buying a counterfeit wanting to recoup some of your money. I think it is creditable that the dealer marked the coin as a counterfeit, there must have been some temptation to pretend you did not know it was bogus and hope to unload it to someone else that would not know either. I imagine there are people who would put aside their scruples or principles when it came to ridding themselves of a counterfeit. I am told that the major supplier of counterfeit coins is Communist China, but it could just as well be any other place. During this recession the coin market has not devalued like housing, stocks, or manufacturing, so many people who saw losses of half or more of their stocks pulled their money to invest in something else.  Investors have always been a herd, and chasing after the best investment grazing grounds keeps the herd on the move. So when stocks go up, many pull their other investments and go into stocks, when stories abound about gold they pull stocks and buy gold. This herd mentality creates stampedes that can drive prices up or seriously depress prices. What has all that to do with counterfeits?  As coins have become to some not just a hobby but an investment, not for something to enjoy but for something else, security, a legacy, a balance sheet the need arises for security for your securities, hence the TPGs, a guarentee that the coin the dealer says is a ms-65 is actually not an ms-63, which difference can be tens of multiples. So that insurance becomes important to the investor, if he buys a coin he has some fall back position in case the coin is proven a counterfeit or is not as good as had been touted. This brings us back to the counterfeiters. The bank robber was asked why he robbed banks, his simple answer was, that is where the money is. Counterfeiters ply their goods because that is where the money is. Now some call the lower grade stuff junk, but in a way it is safer than the higher end stuff, just because a counterfeiter would have a great deal harder time striking a 1916-d mercury in VF condition then making a ms example, and he would realize less profit by the lower grade coin than he would the newer coin. Practice makes perfect, counterfeits have entered the market, many of the experts have identified most of them, the knowledge of what to look for is disseminated not only to the collecting public, but the counterfeiters also glean that knowledge.  I think that counterfeits could mean a real threat to the numismatic hobby, because it could put tpgs under the gun if the counterfeiters improve their product enough, it could drive investors who have propped up prices during this recession away from an unsafe investment. Now some might say that the counterfeiters are not entirely stupid, that like a parasite they will not kill their host by flooding the market, and thus ending their own game. But here is another outlook, perhaps the counterfeiters are not parasites, perhaps the end for them is not merely profit but destruction and dominance.  I think what would kill the counterfeiting game is if the govts where this goes on took a harsh approach to them, I tend to doubt this would happen, and if it did I would be suspicious that it would be a potemkin village of justice, something just for show. The reason I chose this subject for my blog was that I had tended to think that counterfeits were a minor problem, only affecting the very elite circles, but I think it must be a bigger problem when I see a counterfeit at a local flea market.[/QUOTE]

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